dagblog - Comments for "Hurricane Joaquin - Open Thread"

The flooding in South

trkingmomoe — Mon, 05 Oct 2015 17:14:04 +0000

In reply to Hurricane Joaquin - Open Thread

The flooding in South Carolina is wide spread. Some areas got as much as 22 inches. The pictures that have been coming in over the news has been devastating. This is a type of disaster that take a long time to recover from. It can also change the politics. I know this from experience.

I hope every one that is a reader of this site is safe and dry.

Here is the 5:00 AM report

trkingmomoe — Fri, 02 Oct 2015 13:27:55 +0000

In reply to Hurricane Joaquin - Open Thread

Here is the 5:00 AM report from NOAA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/020842.shtml?

KEY MESSAGES: 1. Joaquin's slow motion means that extremely dangerous conditions will continue over portions of the warning areas in the Bahamas today.

2. The forecast models continue to indicate a track offshore of the United States east coast from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic states, and the threat of direct impacts from Joaquin in those areas is decreasing. However, there is still uncertainty in how close Joaquin could come to Bermuda, extreme southeastern New England/Cape Cod, and Nova Scotia during the next several days, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of the hurricane. A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for Bermuda later today.

3. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches.

4. Even if Joaquin remains offshore, strong onshore winds associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend. In addition, very heavy rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding over portions of the Atlantic coastal states. Please see products issued by local NWS Forecast Offices.

It look better now and will stay moving away from the coast. There is still going to be a major rain event and flooding.

You might like to see the

trkingmomoe — Fri, 02 Oct 2015 04:43:05 +0000

In reply to Hurricane Joaquin - Open Thread

You might like to see the size of this storm. This is a large fall storm. I should say huge as it is now beating up the Bahamas. You can also see the moisture being pulled up from the Gulf north traveling up the coast. It is the white line of clouds over Florida. You can see the movement.

http://thevane.gawker.com/heres-a-satellite-loop-of-joaquins-eyewall-lashing-the-1734162397

5:00 PM Update from the

trkingmomoe — Thu, 01 Oct 2015 21:44:24 +0000

In reply to Hurricane Joaquin - Open Thread

5:00 PM Update from the National Hurricane Center.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/011504.shtml

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Joaquin's slow motion means that extremely dangerous conditions will continue over portions of the warning areas in the Bahamas well into Friday.

2. A strong majority of the forecast models are now in agreement on a track farther away from the United States east coast. We are becoming optimistic that the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states will avoid the direct effects from Joaquin. However, we cannot yet completely rule out direct impacts along on the east coast, and residents there should continue to follow the progress of Joaquin over the next couple of days.

3. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches.

4. Even if Joaquin moves out to sea, strong onshore winds associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend. In addition, very heavy rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding over portions of the Atlantic coastal states. Please see products issued by local NWS Forecast Offices.

It sounds like the hurricane will stay off shore. This is good but there will be a heavy rain event and flooding. Joaquin is now a Cat 4.

Update:

trkingmomoe — Thu, 01 Oct 2015 21:13:21 +0000

In reply to Hurricane Joaquin - Open Thread

Update:

People should be concerned about flash flooding in the Carolinas. This is going to happen even if the hurricane stays off shore. Here is an explanation from Dennis Mersereau why this will happen on the coast.

http://thevane.gawker.com/more-than-a-foot-of-rain-is-possible-on-the-east-coast-1734067198

The driving force for all of the big weather we’ll see over the next couple of days is that sharp trough in the jet stream that’s digging across the eastern United States this afternoon. The trough will grow even sharper by tomorrow, with an upper-level low (and eventually a low pressure system at the surface) wringing out a deep slug of tropical moisture in the atmosphere over the southeast.

The result will be rain, and lots of it. We could be staring down an event that will shatter many all-time rainfall records, bringing with it the potential for a significant flooding event over a wide stretch of real estate.

Governor Cuomo has released a

trkingmomoe — Thu, 01 Oct 2015 16:21:17 +0000

In reply to Hurricane Joaquin - Open Thread

Governor Cuomo has released a statement.

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-urges-new-yorkers-be-prepared-heavy-rains-potential-tropical-storm-conditions

There is some important information in it for this storm.