dagblog - Comments for "Sanders in Michigan"

It was higher turnout. They

wabby — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 13:19:32 +0000

In reply to Or maybe just higher turnout,

It was higher turnout. They ran out of ballots in some districts and county clerks had to provide more. Fresh off the office printer. One place told ballot-less voters to write their candidate's name on a piece of paper and that it would be counted as a vote. Whaaaat? One voter got tired of waiting for a Republican ballot so he switched parties and voted Dem. Hahahahaha.

AMURKA!

This was the highest voter turnout for a primary in Michigan history. Let's hope it transfers to November whoever the Dem candidate may be.

Or maybe just higher turnout,

PeraclesPlease — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 07:34:43 +0000

In reply to Maybe there was as late shift

Or maybe just higher turnout, which would favor Sanders, and some complacency among Hillary voters with polls showing an easy win. Plus Bernie did much more TV advertising in the state, which may have helped catch up. My guess is the pollsters ignored tight fights across the state or underweight them, focusing you much on metro areas.

Hillary's only leading Flint/Gennessee County by 4.2% with 87% reporting. With all the effort she put in there, gives an idea that disgruntlement favors Bernie overall.

Over 99% in now. 1.7% difference, Hillary ended up with 10/43 counties. Bernie's up by 7 delegates with 7 more up for grabs, but Hillary has those 10 supers. So great night for Bernie - but he still loses ground. And then there's MS where Hillary moved ahead by 25 pledged delegates, 27 with supers.

Maybe there was as late shift

jollyroger — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 06:45:52 +0000

In reply to Also Bernie's made much more

Maybe there was a late shift to Sanders after people watched that lying sack of shit in the debate misrepresent Bernie's auto bailout vote and then heard her double down on the radio.

About 70% blacks went for

PeraclesPlease — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 06:06:33 +0000

In reply to If I am looking at the NYT

About 70% blacks went for Hillary statewide, so likely larger in Detroit.

If I am looking at the NYT

rmrd0000 — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 05:55:22 +0000

In reply to Also Bernie's made much more

If I am looking at the NYT map correctly, it looks like Clinton got the bulk of the black vote in Detroit and probably Flint as well.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/michigan

Also Bernie's made much more

PeraclesPlease — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 05:32:30 +0000

In reply to Congratulations to Donal.

Also at 35%, Bernie's made much more inroads with northern black voters (or at least those in hard-hit Michigan) than those in the south, and Hillary's about out of Southern states, though NC and FL loom big. What will happen in IL, OH, PA? the race just got more interesting, though I'd guess Michigan has more disgruntled voters than anywhere else, per the auto meltdown, the Flint crisis, and Snyder's governorship.

Only 5 precincts won by Hillary so far, but may be larger ones slowest to finish. Bernie ahead by 2% and 10 delegates with. 14 outstanding but Hillary's 10 superdelegates catches her up. Another superdelegates argument to have, probly, tho Hillary's ahead by 220 pledged delegates after cleaning house in Mississippi at 83%.

About 20 of 83 counties were within 5% - so a widespread fight, not just 1 candidate did better in X, other in Y.

Also good for Bernie to show he can win a primary outside home turf. Problem for him is at this point (95%) he's only 2% and 8 delegates up with 8 remaining. And Hillary increased her lead by about 20, passing the halfway point to nomination tonight including superdelegates.

Big reminder tonight that polls are indicative, not prescriptive.In this case, no one seems to have caught the extent of how tight the race was.

Sanders over performs the

Donal — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 04:46:37 +0000

In reply to I believe you understate the

Sanders over performs the polling by roughly 22%, narrowly winning Michigan. Nate Silver admitted that Sanders was favored in their non-poll calcs. Sanders did well with independents, and got 30% of the black vote, an improvement. He didn't get the 10 - 15% margin required by Counterpunch, but it was a win. He got hammered in Mississippi, but got above the 15% delegate threshold.

Congratulations to Donal.

rmrd0000 — Wed, 09 Mar 2016 04:39:40 +0000

In reply to Sanders in Michigan

Congratulations to Donal. Sanders took Michigan. The battle goes on.

Maybe when Rubio drinks it

PeraclesPlease — Tue, 08 Mar 2016 22:21:14 +0000

In reply to We are agreed that the GOP is

Maybe when Rubio drinks it comes out of Cruz? Together they make 1 man?

We are agreed that the GOP is

rmrd0000 — Tue, 08 Mar 2016 21:18:32 +0000

In reply to I take it at face value -

We are agreed that the GOP is scary. Trump is a rich bigot and Cruz is crazy. Trump is the short fingered vulgarian and Cruz looks like he wants to pee after every sentence..