dagblog - Comments for "Sanders supporters need to vote for Clinton in the general election"

I´m sorry to say I am saying

Flavius — Fri, 13 May 2016 19:52:14 +0000

I´m sorry to say I am saying that.I wish I didn´t think so.

Cheers

Quinnipiac's voter universe

Oxy Mora — Fri, 13 May 2016 17:41:30 +0000

In reply to 1. For fuck's sake, America.

Quinnipiac's voter universe is a point or two more harsh on Democrats than other pollsters. (I think this is a separate thing from reg/unregistered.)

1. For fuck's sake, America.

PeraclesPlease — Fri, 13 May 2016 17:08:34 +0000

In reply to Flavius - are you saying

1. For fuck's sake, America. You're going to make go on a rant about general election polls -- in May? Retweets 1,030 Likes 2,084 Nate Silver Verified account ‏@NateSilver538 7:19 AM - 10 May 2016

2. The data is consistent with Clinton having a ~6% nat'l lead over Trump. It's early. Trump could win. Also, he could lose in a landslide. 482 retweets 595 likes

3. State polls are broadly consistent with that ~6% Clinton lead + noise + house effects. Not nearly enough data to say more than that. 332 retweets 385 likes
4. Possible there are effects from Trump wrapping up his nomination while Clinton still competes against Sanders. We'll know more in June. 314 retweets 383 likes

5. Watch whether polls are likely or registered voters. Usually GOP gains a point or two with likelies. Possible Trump will be an exception. 261 retweets 304 likes

6. The election will go through a lot of twists and turns, and polls are noisy. Don't sweat individual polls or short-term fluctuations. 501 retweets 607 likes

7. Looking at Electoral College is great once you have rich data — multiple recent polls of each state. We won't have that for a few months. 297 retweets 456 likes

8. It's usually not worth it to diagnose why an individual poll deviates from the consensus. Think 'macro' not micro—look for robust trends. 192 retweets 320 likes

Flavius - are you saying

HSG — Fri, 13 May 2016 15:44:05 +0000

In reply to Yes. North Patterson is good.

Flavius - are you saying Trump would defeat Bernie? Why? The polls show the opposite.

Yes. North Patterson is good.

Flavius — Fri, 13 May 2016 11:46:33 +0000

In reply to Sanders supporters need to vote for Clinton in the general election

Yes. North Patterson is good. But then ?

I wish this were a country that could elect Bernie. Instead of being one that , given that choice , would elect Trump.

I liked the article.

moat — Fri, 13 May 2016 01:06:55 +0000

In reply to Sanders supporters need to vote for Clinton in the general election

I liked the article.
Whether one agrees with the breakdown of differences or not, the emphasis on building up is important. That idea is usually brought up in the context of opposing common enemies. It is good to consider the possibilities of joining forces where shared interest is not simply a truce in a war. I think both sides (more than two, actually) of the Democratic tent share the bond of not understanding everything.