dagblog - Comments for "Texas Oil Fields Rebound From Price Lull, but Jobs Are Left Behind"

I'm not offended. I just

ocean-kat — Tue, 21 Feb 2017 04:50:06 +0000

I'm not offended. I just think you've mischaracterized my views based on an incomplete understand from a previous discussion.

My apologies if you were

artappraiser — Tue, 21 Feb 2017 04:32:11 +0000

In reply to My views haven't changed. I

My apologies if you were offended, didn't mean it to happen. Am on an out of town trip right now and running around a lot so cannot discuss further as I would like.

To a large extent, the

PeraclesPlease — Mon, 20 Feb 2017 09:57:00 +0000

In reply to My views haven't changed. I

To a large extent, the acceleration we're discussing wasn't noticeable or understandable 9 years ago. People were still thinking *ROBOTS* would take over. It's not robots, largely - it's automated control systems. Robot uptake is quite a bit slower than imagined. Additionally, smartphones as personal assistants, cloud computing as a killer just-in-time launch facility, improvements in logisitcs.

Also, I think Uber was a shock to us all about how quick a legacy industry could be destroyed. AirBnB was still largely an *alternative* to hotels for those who might feel adventurous and don't want/need the social environment & resources of hotels. For taxis, the distinction in service and perceived benefits is much smaller, and the barriers to adoption much smaller.

My views haven't changed. I

ocean-kat — Mon, 20 Feb 2017 07:10:29 +0000

In reply to thanks for this thread. I do

My views haven't changed. I wish you hadn't said they have because now I have to respond and I hate relitigating discussion I've had long ago. No one clearly remembers what was said and it leads to misunderstandings. At the time I was arguing against what I saw as an incorrect analysis of the problem and simplistic solutions. By your comment, that I responded to, you set the question of the debate. I argued with in the confines of that question so I didn't bring up broader questions or more futuristic analysis.

thanks for this thread. I do

artappraiser — Mon, 20 Feb 2017 00:05:47 +0000

In reply to Over the last ten years I've

thanks for this thread. I do remember when you used to argue more on the other side of this, glad to see you come round to the realization that there is no way we can get back a lot of well-paying jobs "making stuff" in factories.

All of this is very much on the minds of the smarter investors. But they go way beyond that if long-term. They think like this: Uber doesn't have much of a future if there's going to be self-driving cars in most cities in a couple decades. Or it has to change to a rural business plan...things like that. So right now taxi drivers jobs are disappearing to Uber, but Uber work may not last long either.

I think most college-educated millenials realize they will have to learn new skills and switch careers many times in their lives, they are just expecting t hat.

Seems like there are no permanent careers anymore (except maybe lawyering in the right fields, that never seems to go away ) .....my own is in an incredible sea change, the most revolutionary change of my lifetime, and I am not far from retirement age. Lots of my colleagues are very depressed about spending their lives gaining knowledge and expertise that no one cares about anymore. (Example: few people collecting art now care about connoisseurship issues when that used to affect the value greatly,strength of image is everything, connoisseurship nothing, lots of younger collectors will buy online sight unseen. From this a whole market, like photography or pint collecting, could collapse, or not If all that matters is the image, why not just have a good reproduction like they make in China these days, what does one need an original for?) In real estate, it seems hardly anyone in the next generation is going to want all those McMansions. (Not to mention all the stuff that decorates them--there are already stories in business publications about parents leaving stuff on kid's porch and running away, because they can't get them interested in taking it.) It really is a very revolutionary time for nearly everyone.

Over the last ten years I've

ocean-kat — Sun, 19 Feb 2017 20:27:49 +0000

In reply to Texas Oil Fields Rebound From Price Lull, but Jobs Are Left Behind

Over the last ten years I've seen a dozen articles like this about every industry. We're in the beginning phase of a massive change in how we extract raw materials and manufacture goods. A trade war isn't going to bring jobs back. A border tax isn't going to do it. Eliminating two regulations for every new one won't do it. eliminating environmental standards isn't going to do it. Automation is eliminating a massive number of jobs and it's just getting started. I don't even like calling them "robots." It's so much more than that. Sometimes it's just wireless technology connecting sensors with a computer monitored by a computer technician.

It is a world where rigs walk on their own legs and sensors on wells alert headquarters to a leak or loss of pressure, reducing the need for a technician to check. The laborious task of checking tank levels by climbing a flight of steps and popping open a series of latches, for instance, has been replaced by pressing a few icons on a computer touch screen.

It won't be long before there are virtually no jobs for those with out a college education or more and not nearly enough jobs for those with a college education. Just when we need far sighted politicians to guide us through this transition period into the new reality that's coming we got an uneducated moron looking to revive a past that's disappearing before our eyes and is not going to come back.

Roughly 163,000 oil jobs were

ocean-kat — Sun, 19 Feb 2017 20:09:36 +0000

In reply to Texas Oil Fields Rebound From Price Lull, but Jobs Are Left Behind

Roughly 163,000 oil jobs were lost nationally from the 2014 peak, or about 30 percent of the total, while oil prices plummeted, at one point by as much as 70 percent. The job losses just in Texas, the most productive oil-producing state, totaled 98,000.

Several thousand workers have come back to work in recent months as the price of oil has begun to rise again, but energy experts say that between a third and a half of the workers who lost their jobs are not returning.

“People have left the industry, and they are not coming back,” said Michael Dynan, vice president for portfolio and strategic development at Schramm, a Pennsylvania manufacturer of drilling rigs. “If it’s a repetitive task, it can be automated, and I don’t need someone to do that. I can get a computer to do that.”