dagblog - Comments for "Fellow Americans: Please Freeze the Cold War Rhetoric "

As they say...

oldenGoldenDecoy — Mon, 13 Mar 2017 02:31:07 +0000

In reply to Frankly, it's not. Polls just

As they say...

Third time's a charm...

~OGD~

Frankly, it's not. Polls just

ocean-kat — Sun, 12 Mar 2017 21:29:18 +0000

In reply to And to repeat myself...

Frankly, it's not. Polls just require thoughtful analysis which most people don't do. They either dismiss polling completely or latch onto a superficial analysis. But polls are no different than other data. How do people get their information on climate change? One has to carefully consider the source and the questions asked just as one must do to get value from polls. Understanding GMO's require even greater careful analysis as there is very bad data spread by liberal environmentalist sources as well as bad data from conservative and corporate sources. Even people who do thoughtful and careful analysis of articles they read often fall for superficial analysis of polling data. The flaw is rarely in the polling but in the readers reluctance to spend the time to go deeply into the data.

And to repeat myself...

oldenGoldenDecoy — Sun, 12 Mar 2017 20:12:35 +0000

In reply to More, Silver highlighted

And to repeat myself...

Getting to the bottom of all this poll crap is like the proverbial...

WOOF! WOOF!

~OGD~

More, Silver highlighted

PeraclesPlease — Sun, 12 Mar 2017 19:37:59 +0000

In reply to The idea that election

More, Silver highlighted significant known unknowns and unknown unknowns that made the certainty factor significantly less than more amateurish pollsters (Huffpost included) accepted.

The idea that election

ocean-kat — Sun, 12 Mar 2017 19:28:33 +0000

In reply to PP... the point I'll address.

The idea that election polling this cycle was way off is incorrect though it's become a meme. Almost all the polls showed Hillary winning and she lost so the polls were terribly wrong. Most people don't understand how to read polls and go on the most superficial analysis. Most of the polling showed a very close race especially those taken a day or two before the election. Most presidential polls were national polls of people. Only a few people, like Nate Silver, dug into the polls to look at state totals to estimate electoral college votes. All the polls that showed Hillary with a 2 point lead were accurate. She won 46% to 48%. Most of the polls were accurate within the margin of error. Even the polls that were incorrect were only a few points off.

Except polling data is often

PeraclesPlease — Sun, 12 Mar 2017 17:59:11 +0000

In reply to PP... the point I'll address.

Except polling data is often accurate, despite the misdirection & squirreliness of people - good pollsters dig out opinion and the direction of opinion; bad ones just collect data. It works if careful & clever, even in Russia.

PP... the point I'll address.

oldenGoldenDecoy — Sun, 12 Mar 2017 17:20:42 +0000

In reply to I don't think this is helpful

PP... the points I'll address...

The links provided at the conclusion of the article I posted were simply posted to show the background work of the author. Let's just leave that with, He Knows His Shit!

And I continue to stand on the position that when people in Russia are presented with all these "polls" it becomes slanted by the fact that there are thousands, make that hundreds-of-thousands of Russian people who answer these polls in such a way as to not bring negative pressure into their meager lives. Prime Example See: Recent US election polling.

And as to negative pressure? From artappraiser's DailyBeast link:

Dozens of businessmen gathered at the “FuckUp Nights” event in a hip conference hall of the Digital October center in downtown Moscow to discuss their most dramatic business failures. “When we decided to launch our business of smoking cabins in Moscow City, we could not imagine that the crisis would begin and all businesses would move out of the Moscow City,” Armen Manukyan, one of the failures, told the audience. Not many dared to blame Putin for a collapsing market or unemployment.
A few who did came under attack.

But getting to the bottom of all this poll crap is like the proverbial...

That is all...

~OGD~

In short, Putin seems to be

artappraiser — Fri, 10 Mar 2017 17:43:41 +0000

In reply to "Putin’s party United Russia

In short, Putin seems to be rather popular.

Yup, I'd go so far as to say it's silly to even question that. The "devil in the details" is rather in trying to understand why and also trying to understand the considerable minority that despises that and that both groups are a continual factor in their culture over centuries.

"Putin’s party United Russia

PeraclesPlease — Fri, 10 Mar 2017 17:06:50 +0000

In reply to I did a quick google and,

"Putin’s party United Russia’s public support had shrunk from 57 percent to 50 percent in one month." - so if his party was at 57% a month ago, I'd guess Putin was at least at 70%.

"The attack was not about the center’s polls—the recent ones show that about 81-82 percent of Russians approved of Putin’s policy. "

“Unlike other sociological groups, we ask Russians about Putin’s corruption and about 25-28 percent say they believe he is corrupt, 25-30 admit they do not care, for as long as their life is better under Putin, and only 11-18 percent do not believe that president Putin is corrupt,” director of Levada Center Lev Gudkov told The Daily Beast.

“Trump is right about Putin’s popularity rating but it needs to be said, that this figure has nothing to do with Putin’s success, public love or sympathy for him,” Gudkov told The Daily Beast. “Eighty-two percent of Russians support the myth or the revival of the Great Russia status, as Putin makes people feel proud of Russia’s greatness since the fall of the USSR,” Gudkov said.

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In short, Putin seems to be rather popular.

ocean-kat, I've been watching

artappraiser — Fri, 10 Mar 2017 14:03:27 +0000

In reply to I don't watch videos. It's a

ocean-kat, I've been watching this thread and was feeling guilty about letting you handle this all alone, but then I was also conflicted, thinking: let it go, it's a waste of time. So I'm glad to see this comment!