dagblog - Comments for "Obamacare´s repeal/replacement"

“The terms of [the healthcare

Peter Schwartz — Sun, 07 May 2017 02:15:32 +0000

In reply to Krauthammer: ‘We will be in a

“The terms of [the healthcare] debate are entirely on the grounds of the liberal argument that everybody ought to [have insurance]. Once that happens, you're going to end up with a single-payer,” Krauthammer said on Fox News’s “Special Report with Bret Baier.”

In short, we've won the war even if this battle isn't going so well.

KY was one of the few states

Peter Schwartz — Sun, 07 May 2017 02:12:57 +0000

In reply to new stuff just put up at WaPo

KY was one of the few states where ACA was widely considered an unqualified success. I woulda thought that McConnell could be made vulnerable on this point--though the governor breezed to victory on dismantling the ACA. Strange state.

Senate Republicans will pass

NCD — Sun, 07 May 2017 01:24:49 +0000

In reply to Yeah Pelosi was overly

Senate Republicans will pass it with cosmetic changes.

The other iron law of Republicans is their base will won't care and will still vote Republican.

Yeah Pelosi was overly

ocean-kat — Sun, 07 May 2017 01:09:20 +0000

In reply to Exactly. And it won't pass

Yeah Pelosi was overly optimistic. It seems unlikely to pass the senate. But with reconciliation it only takes 50 votes. Josh weighed in on this.

this should remind us of what I’ve previously called the Iron Law of Republican Politics. That is, the ‘GOP moderates’ will always cave.

I confess that after the first debacle and the sharp move of public opinion in favor of Obamacare, I thought Ryan would have a much harder time pulling this off. After all, the GOP moderates in the House didn’t get anything. The bill moved further to the right, further to gutting coverage on the second round. They caved anyway.

This brings me to the First Corollary of the Iron Law of Republican Politics: Josh should never doubt the Iron Law of Republican Politics.

I don’t see how it can get through the Senate. But remember The Iron Law of Republican Politics.

Exactly. And it won't pass

Obey — Sat, 06 May 2017 23:20:27 +0000

In reply to We won't see any effects on

Exactly. And it won't pass the Senate. Anything that does pass the senate will do so with Democratic votes, so it can't be used as an election cudgel in any case.

My point is that pace AA, Pelosi was NOT "correct in saying what she said, that those who voted for it will be very sorry they did". Exactly 3 of the GOP now have to work a bit harder to get reelected. The other 214 GOP reps have little to worry about.

We won't see any effects on

ocean-kat — Sat, 06 May 2017 22:55:32 +0000

In reply to Here's the Cook political

We won't see any effects on voting patterns until it passes and people see its effects on people's health care. If it passes and it has the negative effects most predict then, hopefully, people will vote against the republicans.

Here's the Cook political

Obey — Sat, 06 May 2017 22:17:31 +0000

In reply to Pelosi knows partly because:

Here's the Cook political report:

http://cookpolitical.com/story/10342

where the big shift is three red districts moving into the "toss-up" column. Color me unimpressed. A hugely unpopular bill shambolically shoved through the house and it has barely moved the dial so far.

The Democrats need to do more than just jeer at GOP malfeasance and incompetence.

new stuff just put up at WaPo

artappraiser — Sat, 06 May 2017 21:29:37 +0000

In reply to oops, it's really a mess, as

new stuff just put up at WaPo on the political implications:

McConnell alliance faces its biggest test yet with health care

At stake is the long-term future of the health-care system and the near-term future of the GOP-controlled government. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a consummate political insider, and President Trump, the ultimate outsider, will need to balance each other to score a major legislative victory.

By Sean Sullivan, Abby Phillip and Paul Kane

1 hour ago

The Fix

Analysis

Health-care plan could launch ugly battles in state legislatures

Even if a watered-down version of House Republicans’ legislation becomes law, states are probably going to be on the hook for billions of dollars of health-care costs, especially for the poor and sick.

By Amber Phillips

Pelosi knows partly because:

artappraiser — Sat, 06 May 2017 20:45:14 +0000

In reply to Another NYTimes piece shows

I suspect Pelosi knows partly because: she had to do a ton of across-the-aisle work getting Obamacare on the books in the first place! She probably knows what a lot of constituents in swingy districts thought about it at the time, what worried them about Obamacare, and also how those kind of people might feel more comfortable with it down the line once they knew more about it. Because she had to try to convince reps from those swingy type districts to vote for it.

Another NYTimes piece shows

artappraiser — Sat, 06 May 2017 20:28:41 +0000

In reply to Democrats See Health Vote as

Another NYTimes piece shows how publicly known support of it is already seen as poison:

G.O.P. House Candidate in Montana Is Caught on Tape Praising Health Bill

By JONATHAN MARTIN MAY 5, 2017

[....] Mr. Gianforte’s attempt to appeal to two different audiences — Montana voters skeptical about the House’s repeal bill and Washington Republicans eager to undo President Barack Obama’s signature domestic accomplishment — illustrates the complicated politics surrounding the health law. While Republicans expect their elected officials to fulfill their longstanding vows to tear up the Affordable Care Act, the broader electorate is uneasy about abandoning the law’s protections and benefits it has come to depend on [.....]

Pelosi was correct in saying what she said, that those who voted for it will be very sorry they did. Didn't sound like an idle threat about planned protests or the like when I saw the clip of her saying it on TV, sounded more like she knew it from polls and studies of districts, something along those lines.