dagblog - Comments for "America's new, combustible four-party system"

A thread worth revisiting

artappraiser — Tue, 11 Sep 2018 02:16:43 +0000

In reply to America's new, combustible four-party system

A thread worth revisiting after a year has past.

It's like we basically have

artappraiser — Thu, 31 Aug 2017 06:31:34 +0000

In reply to America's new, combustible four-party system

It's like we basically have at least two political parties running the executive branch right now:

[....] The new measure of power in Washington is how far you can go criticizing the president at whose pleasure you serve. The hangers-on and junior players must do it furtively and anonymously. Only a principal like Gary Cohn, Rex Tillerson or James Mattis can do it out in the open and get away with it.

First, it was chief economic adviser Cohn saying in an interview that the administration—i.e., Donald J. Trump—must do a better job denouncing hate groups. Then, it was Secretary of State Tillerson suggesting in a stunning interview with Chris Wallace of Fox News that the rest of the government speaks for American values, but not necessarily the president. Finally, Secretary of Defense Mattis contradicted without a moment’s hesitation a Trump tweet saying we are done talking with North Korea.

In a more normal time, in a more normal administration, any of these would be a firing offense (although, in Mattis’ defense, he more accurately stated official U.S. policy than the president did). Tillerson, in particular, should have been told before he was off the set of Fox News on Sunday that he was only going to be allowed to return to the seventh floor of the State Department to clean out his desk.

The fact that this hasn't happened is an advertisement of Trump’s precarious standing, broadcast by officials he himself selected for positions of significant power and prestige. A more typical scenario is that a president loses credibility in a foreign crisis when an adversary defies him, or in a domestic political confrontation when the opposition deals him a stinging defeat. Not at the hands of his own team.

This isn't the work of the deep state, career bureaucrats maneuvering or leaking from somewhere deep within the agencies. This is the shallow state, the very top layer of the government, operating in broad daylight, in fact wanting to be seen and heard differentiating themselves from the president of the United States. [....]

from

Trump’s Insubordination Problem

By RICH LOWRY @ Politico.com, August 30, 2017

Perhaps we've become too

PeraclesPlease — Wed, 23 Aug 2017 21:07:05 +0000

In reply to I can't figure out what the

Perhaps we've become too accustomed to boredom, or simply no one exciting has raised their standard.

Sigh. Holland was a case

PeraclesPlease — Wed, 23 Aug 2017 19:17:00 +0000

In reply to No, you haven't offered

Sigh. Holland was a case where your new trends would prevail. But they didn't. France? Nope, Macron tamped down both the far right and far left (though having teoubles now). Germany? Merkel's no longer in danger. Counter trends? I never promised you those. I just said there's no trend yet worth noting - aside from Russian influnced elections. And normal East European populism. And bored media trying to play fantasy football with everything to stir shit up.

p.s. this is great, too: No

artappraiser — Wed, 23 Aug 2017 18:42:10 +0000

In reply to yo, Obey, you pegged it so

p.s. this is great, too: No need to schmooze the establishment elders for four years. No one cares what they think anymore. Endorsements are worthless.

yo, Obey, you pegged it so

artappraiser — Wed, 23 Aug 2017 18:38:14 +0000

In reply to I can't figure out what the

yo, Obey, you pegged it so well here:

The Overton window is now as wide as a barn door

This is the forest I see (second hat tip to Wolraich for bringing up the forest/trees thing.)

No, you haven't offered

Michael Wolraich — Wed, 23 Aug 2017 18:33:25 +0000

In reply to What trend? Hey, Scotland and

No, you haven't offered serious counter trends. You just keep quibbling with the examples. This is clearly as far as we're going to get. I see a forest. You see trees.

On the current and local to

artappraiser — Wed, 23 Aug 2017 18:21:01 +0000

In reply to America's new, combustible four-party system

On the current and local to the U.S. level, and Hillary specific:

I note with interest that Hillary and her publisher have decided to give first excerpts of her book to "Morning Joe" on MSNBC. "Morning Joe" is anti-Trump centrist central, GOP as well as Dem. And surprise, surprise, the first exclusive excerpt/meme is anti-Trump.

What trend? Hey, Scotland and

PeraclesPlease — Wed, 23 Aug 2017 16:49:41 +0000

In reply to It's really not that hard to

What trend? Hey, Scotland and Catalonia and Quebec want more independence - this is ancient by US standards, completely irrelevant to say Le Pen. Turkey? it's a conservative Muslim revival stage managed by Erdogan - how this has anything to do with Hungary or Poland, I don't know. Closer would be Meciar 25 years ago managing the Czechoslovak breakup. Populist bastard. So is *he* part of this trend? And Hungary's getting Russian backing. But are Romania and Bulgaria similarly encumbered? Montenegro turned down its Russian connection. Serbia seems iffy. Greece's irresponsibility and corrruption is an outlier for every attempt to make it a bellweather.

For every"trend" you note, I can note 2 countertrends. And to be honest, I focus much more on the US - I'm sure it's less trendable for those who follow. Again, we were worried about Holland and Germnay, butit's been a great 8 months of reversal.

Yes, there are some growing pains for the EU, but there were growing pains on 1998 withthe intro of the Euro and in 2003 with rapid expansion, and last year withconcerns of disintwgration that fortunately never emerged. Just Brexit, and that's been a quite muddied diluted response ever since. There's a point to make in all that shit, but we're still not sure what it is, and it seems less and less about Brussels all the time.

I can't figure out what the

Obey — Wed, 23 Aug 2017 16:44:32 +0000

In reply to Well it's not like an

I can't figure out what the "next" is. Bannon-esque fascism? Sanders-ish democratic socialism? None of it seems likely.

That's kind of the point, isn't it? Nothing seems likely but anything is possible. The Overton window is now as wide as a barn door, people are expressing opinions that seemed wildly politically implausible last year and pushing policies no one would have thought worth considering. Trump is horribly unpopular, but I have yet to see the Democrats looking inclined to promote anyone any less unpopular. There is no reason to expect a recession before the mid-terms so given gerrymandered districting I wouldn't expect any change in the short term.

Contra what you say in your first paragraph, I think the only thing that is predictable is that there will be surprises: First of all it's still not unlikely Trump will get reelected. Gallup puts his approvals at 39% now after Charlottesville. Back at election time 2016 his favorables were 39.5%. If he doesn't upset his base any further, he will have a decent chance. Depending on how badly the Democrats screw up who they nominate next time around. Not sure his reelection would count as a surprise, but everyone seems to be assuming it won't happen.

Also, the idea that people are looking to a sedate centrist to bring everyone together sounds wildly wrong to me. There is no center, in the sense of economically conservative but socially liberal. The idea tha that anyone wants more free-trade agreements, more corporate subsidies, concentrated markets, and entitlement cuts is nuts.

The left is slowly getting organized and will challenge the Democratic party establishment making the primaries more interesting than before. The nationalist right is looking energized and the corporate establishment has lost its credibility. Candidates can come out of nowhere, with little preparation of the terrain. Trump set up his small-donor network in no time. No need to schmooze the establishment elders for four years. No one cares what they think anymore. Endorsements are worthless.