dagblog - Comments for "Hillary by numbers: 538 weighs in"

The post was to get people to

PeraclesPlease — Sun, 24 Sep 2017 12:54:16 +0000

The post was to get people to read the 538 roundtable and the one comparing hurricane predictions with elections - more interesting than this thread.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-hillary-clinton-right-about-why-...

Ah, Hillary vs Bernie, it

Michael Wolraich — Sun, 24 Sep 2017 11:00:07 +0000

In reply to Hillary by numbers: 538 weighs in

Ah, Hillary vs Bernie, it never gets old.

This thread is done. Thanks for another enlightened debate.

That's all you have to say

ocean-kat — Sun, 24 Sep 2017 10:44:30 +0000

In reply to It was PP who started this

That's all you have to say Hal? You've been pushing and pushing and I've held back. You specifically asked me why I think Sanders would have lost several times and I've kept my mouth shut. Well you finally convinced me to tell you exactly why I think Sanders would have been destroyed by the republicans. Your have your alternate history fantasy that only tells the story of what you think democrats would have done if Sanders won. The blank in your fantasy has always been what the republicans would have done if Sanders had won.

This would have been just the beginning. Any asshole that writes in a publication for all to see that it is a good thing for children to run around naked and touch each others genitals, said that reading articles about a 12 year old girl getting raped by 14 men appealed to him, thinks women having sex fantasize about being raped by 3 men, and thinks it's a good thing if teen girls have sex because it's less likely they'll get breast cancer surely wrote much much more.

Sanders would have been clueless as how to explain his sex essays. All his attempts to explain the nuance would have fell on deaf ears. Trump would have brought it up at every rally and in every debate. Sanders wouldn't have just lost. It would have been a rout. Tell me oh master of the messaging for the masses how you would have explained it. Let's have that conversation you've been telling us for months you want to have. I'm finally ready. I won't hold back any more.

It was PP who started this

HSG — Sun, 24 Sep 2017 09:20:18 +0000

In reply to I can't see how a man who

It was PP who started this thread and brought up the question of whether Bernie would have done better.

You're insane. Iowa was a

PeraclesPlease — Sun, 24 Sep 2017 06:43:14 +0000

In reply to She was a deeply unpopular

You're insane. Iowa was a fucking caucus, for God's sake. It's where activists go to send signals, not for an actual indicator of general elections. The whole country has gotten quite a bit more conservative and codified partisan in the last 20 years, thanks to Fox News, etc., but you don't address these bits. We've published the stat showing Fox propaganda probably added about 3 points to the GOP in 2004, 6 points in 2008, and likely more since, yet you throw out this "once a swing state" as if Hillary converted Iowa to the Republicans.

I've pointed out Russ Feingold lost Wisconsin despite impeccable liberal credentials and heavy county-by-county campaigning. Somehow Bernie will majestically outperform Feingold just because because because.

Sanders would have had to win PA, MI & WI to win.

You point to Nate Silver yet ignore his reasoning, his doubts, his points on why he lucked out in 2012 but would be hard to repeat in 2016 (hint: undecided voters => uncertainty), etc. Here's a refresher course on Nate Silver for you.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-may-be-too-religious-to-e...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-t...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-sanders-and-cruz-really-less-el...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-is-even-further-behi...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-winning-the-states-that-...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-sanders-does-better-with-indepe...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-have-gotten-more-liberal-...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-delegate-lead-would-triple...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sanders-isnt-doing-well-with-true-i...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-may-be-too-religious-to-e...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-system-isnt-rigged-against-sand...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/june-7-new-jersey-california-primar...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/does-bernie-sanders-represent-the-f...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/was-the-democratic-primary-a-close-c...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/about-a-third-of-bernie-sanders-supp...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-democrats-headed-for-a-split-ev...

I can't see how a man who

ocean-kat — Sun, 24 Sep 2017 06:41:17 +0000

In reply to It is an old and somewhat

It seems like Hal and luIu want to have a frank and honest conversation about who would have won the election if Sanders won the primary. I haven't really wanted to talk about it but Hal's brought it up over and over and over again. I avoided discussing it but clearly it's an important issue for some so let us get into it.

I can't see how a man who claimed it was a good thing for children to run around naked and touch each others genitals, said that reading articles about a 12 year old girl getting raped by 14 men appealed to him, thinks women having sex fantasize about being raped by 3 men, and thinks it's a good thing if teen girls have sex because it's less likely they'll get breast cancer could ever be elected president. But we just elected a man who bragged about grabbing women by the pussy so maybe sexual deviants like Trump and Sanders is the new norm for presidential candidates.

As I've said I don't know how to create messaging for the masses so hopefully an expert in crafting such messages like Hal will explain how this message will sway voters to vote for Sanders and democrats.

Your perpetual sneer comes

A Guy Called LULU — Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:58:39 +0000

In reply to No, it was an insulting

Your perpetual sneer comes through always so I don't pay it any mind as a rule but don't apologize, this time it is giving me a good laugh. Lighten up Kat, its just conversation.

Bernie would not have gotten

rmrd0000 — Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:38:41 +0000

In reply to You have posted this same

Bernie would not have gotten the black turnout that Hillary received. Do. I think people should vote? Yes. Do I think black turnout will be less if Democrats don't begin outreach to the black community in preparation for 2018? Yes. If we did a head to head comparison between Sanders and Obama today, Obama would win. If there is a head to head between say Kamala Harris and Sanders in 2020, Harris would win among black voters. The lack of enthusiasm for Sanders in the black community is entirely Sanders fault. Sanders never directly engaged with the black community.

Feel free to blame black voters for not having a Pavlovian response to Sanders. They think of Sanders as much as Sanders thinks of them. He botched a very simple question posed by a black mother on how his policy would impact her asthmatic child. He dismissed Southern black voters. Feel free to blame the black voters if turnout decreases. I send the same message about outreach because responses tend to be excuses. Democrats need to do black outreach. Sanders should have done outreach. Instead of acknowledging the lack of outreach, potential black voters are criticized. Perez and Sanders should have done down outreach in minority communities right after their outreach to whites. How difficult would that have been. Instead of calling for outreach to energize black voters, you criticize the folks who feel neglected.

You want me to lie to you and tell you that black voters would turn out for Sanders in great numbers. Sanders is not Obama. Hillary was campaigning with the mothers of black youth killed by police. She gave speeches about racial inequality. Sanders has been in Congress and the majority of the Congressional Black Caucus had detailed contact with him. The CBC knew Hillary.

I will be voting. I will try to get other people to vote. Black voters are not happy with how they are being treated by the Democratic Party. I fear that may result in decreased turnout. Few in the black community believe that Sanders really understands the impact of race. Both Clintons show empathy. Bill won the black vote. Hillary got the black vote. Hillary got the vote of most women. Hillary lost the vote of white women.

White voters elected Donald Trump. The majority of Trump's current support is white voters. Black voters will support the Democratic candidate in overwhelming numbers. Blacks are used to being blamed for loses. In most states, the Democratic Presidential candidate got the majority of the black over GW Bush in his second election. In Ohio, blacks voted for the Democrat 4:1 over GW Bush in Ohio.. Blacks voted overwhelmingly for the Democrat Kerry, yet they were blamed for the loss of the Presidency. 80% of blacks in Ohio voted for Kerry, yet they caused his loss. If the black vote is really that important, you might think about calling for outreach to show that their votes are important. We are witnessing a whitelash to the election of a black President. The pathology is not in the black community. Do some outreach.

If Trump is re-elected, it will be because white voters elected him. Work on things to encourage black voters the same way Democrats did outreach to white voters. Stop talking about the problems with so-called identity politics at a time when the white supremacist in the White House has a commission designed to suppress black votes nationally, jokes about, police abuse, and is taking time out of disaster release efforts, North Korea, etc.to openly attack black athletes.

I am repetitive because with all the racist crap going on, there is lack of attention to an important Democratic voting black. I sense disaster ahead. So go ahead, attack black voters for feeling neglected and under siege.A little outreach to say that Democrats are preparing to combating voter suppression by having aid set up a polling places and a national hotline might be helpful as one step.

i don't understand why it is so difficult to get this simple reality across. Do the same outreach you did for whites.

No, it was an insulting

ocean-kat — Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:31:41 +0000

In reply to Perhaps this also explains

No, it was an insulting response to comments by you and Hal for posting bullshit. I wasn't trying to be intelligent. Every word choice I made was deliberately insulting. That was my one and only goal.

Alternative history is bullshit. No one knows what would have happened if Sanders had won the primary. The fact is that you and Hal are writing very low quality alternative history. If you truly want to write alternative history you need to imagine not just what democrats might do but what republicans might do and how democrats might react to it. But that would just be a more complete more complex version of bullshit. We can't go back in time to see nor can we investigate an alternative reality.

But I do apologize that my writing wasn't clear enough for you to get that I was insulting you and Hal. I thought my comment was obvious but everyone has a different level of reading comprehension. I'll be more careful to write to your level when I reply to you.

Perhaps this also explains

A Guy Called LULU — Sun, 24 Sep 2017 02:55:02 +0000

In reply to I think you and Hal will find

Perhaps this also explains the enduring interest in Sanders supporters creating fantasy alternative historical fiction.

Part of your in-depth analysis of a comment you claim to have not read. You are way more of a fantasy fan than you claim to be. You no doubt fantasize that yours was an intelligent response that was to the point