dagblog - Comments for "The 2016 Exit Polls Led Us to Misinterpret the 2016 Election"

They are the tuna salad with

PeraclesPlease — Tue, 03 Apr 2018 04:19:01 +0000

They are the tuna salad with lo-fat dressing.

but I've got to admit

artappraiser — Tue, 03 Apr 2018 00:39:31 +0000

but I've got to admit sometimes I wonder whether we should pay more attention to what the Russian bots think are the most divisive topics in the U.S. rather than our own pollsters

Russian bots flock to Laura Ingraham feud with Parkland student: report

@ TheHill.com 04/02/18 05:08 PM EDT

Question in the past is: are they the chicken or egg? Here they are definitely the egg.

More proof Roseanne

artappraiser — Tue, 03 Apr 2018 00:17:10 +0000

In reply to The 2016 Exit Polls Led Us to Misinterpret the 2016 Election

More proof Roseanne Rosannadanna rules:

‘Stormy Effect': Trump’s support falls with women, rises with men in new poll

@ TheHill.com- 04/02/18 05:01 PM EDT

I think it behooves to go

artappraiser — Mon, 02 Apr 2018 17:41:01 +0000

In reply to Yet trump’s “favorables” are

I think it behooves to go even further back. To think about this meme:

In the spring of 1991 President George H.W. Bush looked unstoppable. Following Operation Desert Storm his approval rating hit 89 percent, the highest ever recorded by Gallup. Yet, that wasn’t enough. What did Bush in, as Clinton adviser James Carville famously quipped, was “the economy, stupid.” Team Clinton wagered that the sluggish recovery from the 1990-1991 recession would loom largest in the minds of voters. They were right.

For 2018 I am thinking GOP in swing districts are staying silent on Trump because they are crossing their fingers that they can win with votes rewarding them for tax cuts and low unemployment combined with pro-Trump votes. It's risky because the anti-Trump voters are motivated, but it's all they got and according to Carville's rules, it might be enough. I'm talking the swing surburban that the Dems are hopeful about, not the red red rural where the jobs are not coming back and are not considered swing.

For 2020,who knows? Precisely because we can't predict what his craziness will do to the economy.

Except polls will suffer

PeraclesPlease — Mon, 02 Apr 2018 15:50:02 +0000

In reply to Yet trump’s “favorables” are

Except polls will suffer similar biases to the exit polls - they can simply be weighting segments wrong, so the results are always skewed. (that might make Trump look better, but whatever)

But it's hard to imagine that #metoo/#timeisup and #parkland having 0 effect, and it seemed that there was some watershed point of acceptance for #takeaknee, while it's hard to imagine Stormy registering neutral on the scale, even if most people mughy not yet be registering #RussiaGate quite yet. And while the troops might rally behind Trump's trade wars and DACA and claims about Syria et al, I'd guess any supporters involved in business recognize that just changing personnel willy-nilly or leaving positions open is simply not productive.

In short, my gut tells me there has to be movement of some sort, and either the depth of support is getting shallower or they're asking the wrong questions or... (alien space gods are conducting thought experiments or...)

Trump has his 40%. The only

rmrd0000 — Mon, 02 Apr 2018 13:32:17 +0000

In reply to Yet trump’s “favorables” are

Trump has his 40%. The only hope is that the rest of us come out to vote. The majority of white Evangelicals are in Trump’s camp. The racists and bigots are in his camp. Democrats have to rely on the other whites, minorities, and a chunk of white women, Trump’s 40% are white identity voters. It is only because minorities voice opinions that they are spoken of as being pandered to as an identity vote. Everybody is an identity voter.

Yet trump’s “favorables” are

CVille Dem — Mon, 02 Apr 2018 13:01:48 +0000

In reply to Democrats have won in

Yet trump’s “favorables” are slightly up. Is his base rewarding him for plooking Stormy, or do they believe his bullshit? After all, it is rare to see any facts disputing his wild claims on everything.

im old enough to remember when we were confident that the GOP was dead, during Dubya’s first term.

Democrats have won in

rmrd0000 — Mon, 02 Apr 2018 12:46:10 +0000

In reply to Edsall's interpretation of

Democrats have won in surprising areas. People are now experiencing Trump fatigue. Every group, including minorities, have economic anxiety. There has been little impact of the tax cuts on the income of most Americans. Voters may be ready for a Democratic solution.

Edsall's interpretation of

moat — Mon, 02 Apr 2018 12:34:55 +0000

In reply to The 2016 Exit Polls Led Us to Misinterpret the 2016 Election

Edsall's interpretation of what the new results demonstrate just doubles down on the previously received argument that working class whites are all circling their wagons in the face of heterogeneous hordes.

So it looks like Roseannadanna will have the last word on this one.
Sorry Emily.

Well, they'd love it to be #2

PeraclesPlease — Mon, 02 Apr 2018 05:48:01 +0000

In reply to maybe it's more like this

Well, they'd love it to be #2 to deny any accountability, and just rave about whatever. Who were the groups who've been slandered the last year by these supposed airtight exit polls? Again, Nate Silver gives outcomes in several brackets of uncertainty; the press runs with supposed absolutes and the people lap it up.