dagblog - Comments for "Getting to Know White Voters, Revised: Cook Political Report"

Neither Stacey Abrams or

rmrd0000 — Fri, 31 Aug 2018 19:04:28 +0000

Neither Stacey Abrams or Andrew Gillum are yelling at whites. I do think we can expect the Trump supported candidates to use dog-whistles and bullhorns on race. The newer review of the 2016 election data creates a more pleasing picture of the white vote. We are in the era of Trump. We have already heard about “monkeying things up”. It seems certain that if Abrams and Gillum lose, we will go back to talking about the flaws of white voters.

Your comment reminds me how

artappraiser — Fri, 31 Aug 2018 18:35:26 +0000

In reply to Since republicans have

Your comment reminds me how it struck me that more Republicans turned out to vote in the Florida primaries than Democrats did. I was reading a lot of self-congratulatory stuff about record turnout from Dems, and this info. really burst that balloon.

Passionately amping up divisiveness to amp up GOTV won't necessarily work for Dems in purple areas.

What strikes me as new and surprising from recent elections: if a candidate has a multi-culti appearance/identity, as in not white male, but of color, immigrant, woman, unusual religion, trans or gay, they can win over enough more conservative types if they talk moderate. What that says to me: a significant number of swing types are no longer truly prejudicial. I.E., they think a trans person could be rather conservative! more and more are becoming more open to not judging by appearances.

article has a good simple

artappraiser — Fri, 31 Aug 2018 18:17:09 +0000

In reply to Getting to Know White Voters, Revised: Cook Political Report

article has a good simple summary

leads to two conclusions. First, stop assuming that all white, non-college voters are core Trump supporters. Trump’s base is evangelical white voters, regardless of education level. Second, white non-evangelical, non-college women are the ultimate swing voters.

If this is correct, and one's goal is Dems winning Congress in fall, one has take this info.and apply it to red and purple districts and states, which is not the same as applying it nationally. At the same time keeping in mind that their will no doubt be a GOTV effect as to the congressional races being a referendum on Trump, both for and against.

One thing I would say is that it should be a no brainer for people to be understanding if Dem candidates in such districts and states don't denounce all things Trump strongly. Just on a few select issues, similar to the way many of the current GOP in office handle speaking on him.

It's pretty damn clear now he knows the first part of this equation, he panders to evangelicals. He even still tries to get black evangelicals at times.What he doesn't know how to handle is those white non-evangelical non-college women. But do a lot of those even care enough one way or another to come out to vote in the mid-terms based on who endorses the local candidates and what party they are? They probably don't like the divisiveness and anger thing. I am thinking many of them wouldn't be so very pro-impeachment or pro-Trump and may stay home. Unless the candidates where they are the important swings really court them, in a courtly type way.

Since republicans have

ocean-kat — Fri, 31 Aug 2018 17:01:46 +0000

In reply to November brings a strong

Since republicans have defeated white democrats in Georgia and Florida for years how exactly will a black democratic candidate losing tell us anything about the white voters there?

November brings a strong

rmrd0000 — Fri, 31 Aug 2018 13:37:05 +0000

In reply to Getting to Know White Voters, Revised: Cook Political Report

November brings a strong contrast. We have black Gubernatorial candidates running against Trump supported Republicans in Georgia and Florida. Defeats of these black candidates would solidify the image of the white voter. In Florida you have to be registered as a Republican or Democrat to vote in the primaries. Typically the numbers increase for Democrats in the general election. Hopefully this will happen in November. The last Democratic Governor in Florida was in the late 90s.