dagblog - Comments for "Five Thirty Eight"s Senate and House forecasts"

p.s. right after in my feed,

artappraiser — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 18:08:27 +0000

In reply to betting on the bubble effect

p.s. right after in my feed, indications of no bottom of bubble delusions for this tribe?

Defending Trump's Puerto Rico conspiracies prove yet again that there is no bottom for his enablers https://t.co/HUC4whUmqf
— Media Matters (@mmfa) September 15, 2018

betting on the bubble effect

artappraiser — Sat, 15 Sep 2018 18:05:39 +0000

In reply to Five Thirty Eight"s Senate and House forecasts

Dems betting on the bubble effect of tribalism, those GOP with wise counsel will try to work against that:

When you propagandise your voters so effectively they don’t actually votehttps://t.co/hmj8aHeRmt pic.twitter.com/R1NL0lKmfd
— wessie du toit (@wessiedutoit) September 15, 2018

The reluctance comes from

moat — Fri, 14 Sep 2018 00:06:11 +0000

In reply to It's a real thing and it's a

The reluctance comes from shaking pom poms at the results of a crack high.
The economy received stimulus high in the market.
It doesn't get more anti-Keynes than that.

It's a real thing and it's a

artappraiser — Thu, 13 Sep 2018 23:57:53 +0000

In reply to Five Thirty Eight"s Senate and House forecasts

It's a real thing and it's a mystery to me why I don't see more GOP campaigns claiming they are responsible for it and saying that the Dems will kill it, even tho Obama could claim ownership:

The shadow-unemployed are coming back to work. https://t.co/VlG38xIzxu
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) September 13, 2018

I too swear by 538 .Including

Flavius — Thu, 13 Sep 2018 03:55:43 +0000

In reply to House:

I too swear by 538 .Including as either stated or implied by them today

o elections get decided in September

o the current polls were taken in August

o even so its safe to predict democrats will win the popular vote in November by at least by 5%

o but to take over the House takes a number higher than that.

Which suggests to me , maybe by Columbus Day we'll know

@ Cook Political Report:

artappraiser — Wed, 12 Sep 2018 23:11:02 +0000

In reply to Five Thirty Eight"s Senate and House forecasts

@ Cook Political Report:

I'm skeptical that Obama's presence on the trail will make much of a difference. This election is all about one person: Donald J. Trump. No one can, or will, overshadow him. https://t.co/WdT1nE5SBN
— amy walter (@amyewalter) September 12, 2018

The thing is, Democrats have

artappraiser — Wed, 12 Sep 2018 22:28:43 +0000

In reply to Five Thirty Eight"s Senate and House forecasts

The thing is, Democrats have so much exposure that they're really playing whack-a-mole in the Senate. Fox came out with relatively good numbers for them in Missouri and Arizona. But! They have Heitkamp down in ND and Donnelly a tick behind in Indiana.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 12, 2018

I noted this analytic tweet

artappraiser — Wed, 12 Sep 2018 21:34:56 +0000

In reply to Five Thirty Eight"s Senate and House forecasts

I noted this analytic twitter thread about the election in general by the AP's "western political" reporter because it was "liked" by Alex Burns & Maggie Haberman of the NYT, whom I follow on twitter

Anti-Trump conservatives don't see it this way, but D voters thought Clinton was the compromise candidate who could attract conservatives to the center. Since that didn't work out, they're looking left instead. https://t.co/R2JtBfl5mo
— Nick Riccardi (@NickRiccardi) September 12, 2018

If you're a voter in North

artappraiser — Wed, 12 Sep 2018 21:26:35 +0000

In reply to Five Thirty Eight"s Senate and House forecasts

If you're a voter in North Dakota, your vote is 26x more important in determining the fate of the Senate than the average American voter's. https://t.co/LUBG6Osgma pic.twitter.com/3xOhgi5LvI
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 12, 2018

House:

artappraiser — Wed, 12 Sep 2018 21:23:43 +0000

In reply to Five Thirty Eight"s Senate and House forecasts

House:

One other arcane forecasting note: Our model accounts for scandals based on @baseballot's scandal database, and we've now updated it to account for scandals from *previous* election cycles. Previously, it only accounted for *new* scandals. However (cont) https://t.co/sRTaNMQx1s
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 12, 2018