dagblog - Comments for "538 daily forecasts Friday am"

538 tells you about the

Flavius — Tue, 30 Oct 2018 02:59:09 +0000

In reply to Showing how seriously 538 is

538 tells you about the bells& whistles. Not true that a forecast is a forecast. Each one is weighted to correct past partianship . Ancad separately weighted overall as to the extent its included in the final number;

Let us say. 538 believes Rasmussen's poll of Republicans should be reduced by 10%. So Rep 58, Dem 42 might be changed to rep 53 Dem 42

Which in turn is reported as 56 Rep (53 divided by 95)

So 538 just reports the final result of all this as Rep 56 Dem 44.

Along with a bunch of adjustments ..

Whatever, it worked last time.We'll see.

Meanwhile until Nate stubbs his toe I use his numbers,

BAD EXPLANATION but I was falling asleep and

now I'm sick of it

Showing how seriously 538 is

artappraiser — Mon, 29 Oct 2018 03:17:08 +0000

In reply to 538 daily forecasts Friday am

Showing how seriously 538 is taken: people put money where it's mouth is:

BREAKING: 538 said Nevada’s Senate race is the closest in the entire country. If we LOSE here to Trump-backed Dean Heller, we’ll LOSE our chance to take back the Senate! We’re counting on you. Please, chip in NOW to help us win – every dollar will be DOUBLED! Donate NOW >>
— Jacky Rosen (@RosenforNevada) October 19, 2018

Very kind. But I can just

Flavius — Sat, 27 Oct 2018 16:12:34 +0000

In reply to We could start a GoFundMe to

Very kind. But I can just make an announcement on my car and any passenger who don't flee at Lex are usually good for $2.50.

We could start a GoFundMe to

PeraclesPlease — Sat, 27 Oct 2018 07:52:40 +0000

In reply to Why do I bother?

We could start a GoFundMe to help with your MTA...?

Why do I bother?

Flavius — Sat, 27 Oct 2018 06:14:48 +0000

In reply to I'll continue posting my

Why do I bother?

Mostly for future analysis after the election to question whether movements in 538's data base during this period will then in retrospective be seen to have been predictive value of which we were not currently aware.

Even more for curiosity value I have started to include 538's daily forecasts for the House & Senate for my own amazement to see the extent , if any, this current data is somehow reflected in its daily report of expected

final majorities.

Which in possession of such knowledge,plus $2.50 ,I'll also be able to get an MTA card.

I'll continue posting my

Flavius — Fri, 26 Oct 2018 16:06:17 +0000

In reply to 538 daily forecasts Friday am

I'll continue posting my summary of 538 until election day.

As follows.

1 issue at 9 am and 9 pm for House and Senate. 2 retain that continually updated summary until the election 3 on each occasion review 538's "all forecasts" 4 if new data "merits " it, report beneath the summary for that day only.

Tuesday evening 53 reversed

Flavius — Wed, 24 Oct 2018 14:46:08 +0000

In reply to 538 moved Nelson back ahead

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538 moved Nelson back ahead

Flavius — Wed, 24 Oct 2018 14:45:37 +0000

In reply to 538 daily forecasts Friday am

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P.S. Also @ The Hill: Bernie

artappraiser — Wed, 24 Oct 2018 08:05:40 +0000

In reply to There's a nice little op-ed

P.S. Also @ The Hill: Bernie being pessimistic about the possibility of a "blue wave"

There's a nice little op-ed

artappraiser — Wed, 24 Oct 2018 08:02:26 +0000

In reply to 538 daily forecasts Friday am

There's a nice little op-ed piece over @ The Hill of what Mark Mellman of The Mellman group felt he learned about current polling issues by looking at that "live polling" project at the NYTimes, with the following summary:

All of which is to say: a. I learned something from Upshot polls, and b. quite different methods are converging on a reasonable expectation of Democratic control of the House with a pickup of over 30 seats.