dagblog - Comments for "538's Sunday and Morning am data"

Thanks ,Maybe

Flavius — Mon, 05 Nov 2018 03:21:08 +0000

Thanks ,Maybe

Interesting to get your

artappraiser — Mon, 05 Nov 2018 02:08:09 +0000

In reply to Wow

Interesting to get your reaction, thanks.

You should really watch for Nate's tweets if you are that interested in what he is saying until Tues., as you will get more insider thinking rather than just what they put on the website. All you have to do is go to this one page here on Twitter after you go to their website. You don't have to join Twitter or anything to see his tweets. Just refresh the page if it doesn't automatically do it.

Wow

Flavius — Mon, 05 Nov 2018 01:39:16 +0000

In reply to there's also this other

Wow

No wow!

I've been playing with the deluge and misread your comment which in itself was correct.. The strength of

You Gov's conviction is interesting but it's still part of the consensus : House Si, Senate No.

The tempraments are rising .

I had lunch years ago with the Finance head of Ford of Europe. Henry II was coming for a major review. As the Ford 727 took off from Michigan , H II sent a message to run some sensitivity analyses of Ford Eur's last projection. See you in the morning!

The Cologne staff was mixed German and Brit. As always the German's were solid, the Brits could be distracted

but came through in a pinch. In this case the Germans appeared in the Finance Guy's office

announcing that they were quitting en group because they couldn't meet this deadline

and prided themselves on always delivering the goods.

My friend said "No way" he was locking the doors , they could quit tomorrow but tonight

they were staying until something was ready at dawn.

The cross words among the analysts sound the same.

there's also this other

artappraiser — Sun, 04 Nov 2018 23:58:04 +0000

In reply to Nate Silver whole twitter

there's also this other interesting exchange between Nate and

Nassim Nicholas Taleb [Flaneur: focus on probability (philosophy), probability (mathematics), probability (logic),probability (reallife), deadlifts, Phoenician wine, dead languages. Website: realworldrisk.com]

https://t.co/y2pcec33jo pic.twitter.com/nVGTjFlz2C
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2018

It's a bit ironic that you used to have interesting things to say and now that you no longer have skin in the game you're just a garden-variety troll
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2018

and he now adds another thread, he's ticked off, again, click on the time/dateline for context

The one thing I have no patience for is dudes (it's almost *always* dudes) who spend 15 minutes on something you've been studying for 10+ years and act like they've solved Fermat's Last Theorm
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2018

Nate Silver whole twitter

artappraiser — Sun, 04 Nov 2018 23:33:43 +0000

In reply to 538's Sunday and Morning am data

Nate Silver whole twitter thread from this afternoon; click on the time/dateline to get the whole thread with his four additional comments about this:

YouGov has Dems with an 89% chance to win the House. (They didn't list the probability in their write-up but you can calculate it from the chart.)

I think their range of outcomes is too narrow (and I'm not super in love with MRP) but there's something pretty interesting here… https://t.co/HftcwZJGR1
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2018