dagblog - Comments for "Failed attempt "

--> https://t.co/yX60V1HVQS

artappraiser — Thu, 29 Nov 2018 17:50:21 +0000

In reply to Failed attempt

--> https://t.co/yX60V1HVQS
— Glenn Thrush (@GlennThrush) November 29, 2018

When I started 2 weeks ago

Flavius — Tue, 06 Nov 2018 06:20:49 +0000

In reply to Yes . That's powerful

When I started 2 weeks ago simply repeating the 538's daily reports from- the-front I was literally thinking

" let's throw everything at the wall and see what sticks."

Or more apt

"with all this shit, there must be a pony someplace."

This is the pony. From when the "start" (July 1 ? Feb 2017?) to now ,Nate says a 3% gain.

I'll take that for encouragement until maybe 9 30 tomorrow evening.

From having buried myself in paper work I did generate a sort of generalization ( the very thing we were looking for !) .

I was looking to see whether ,in the past two weeks, post- Kavanaugh ,post the "Caravan" callous heartlessness, there were signs of across- the- board back- sliding. That's certainly not the case. Just turning the pages of those extracts - if you're basically numerical you at least con yourself into believing that you've sensed the basic drift.

Reminds me of a line from Christopher Fry's "A Phoenix too frequent"

Alas Dnomini for (whomever) ..........

Who Made Balance Sheets sound like Homer

And Homer sound like Balance Sheets

Yes . That's powerful

Flavius — Tue, 06 Nov 2018 05:36:25 +0000

In reply to PSST: the two master poll

Yes . That's powerful

interesting stuff how/why the

artappraiser — Tue, 06 Nov 2018 05:11:43 +0000

In reply to Failed attempt

interesting stuff on how/why the Independent factor can screw up pollsters in certain states:

The always perceptive and often contrarian Bruce Gyory (with whom I happen to agree):
"Therefore, I am reluctant to anoint Mitch McConnell as the next Majority Leader or to count Chuck Schumer out."https://t.co/oY6UfQuMwn
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) November 5, 2018

PSST: the two master poll

artappraiser — Tue, 06 Nov 2018 00:38:43 +0000

In reply to Election polling data is

PSST: the two master poll wonk Nates, talking to each other on twitter: looks to me like they are basically admitting many election results are currently unpredictable:

This is the single most terrifying bit of poll-related data for Republicans, in that Democrats made gains in a pretty diverse array of districts, which might lead one to wonder what's happening in the districts that *haven't* been polled recently. https://t.co/Os8kc9QqoX
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2018

youth turnout thing here; I'm

artappraiser — Mon, 05 Nov 2018 23:06:27 +0000

In reply to Election polling data is

youth turnout thing in first comment here; I'm gonna post more there if I see it, as I find it an interesting topic in itself. Just now while driving, heard a story on the local NPR, they went to a high school class in a public school in the Bronx debating how low they think the voting age should go--there were the ones for 15 and then the ones for 13. Suffice it to say, they wish they could vote tomorrow.

Election polling data is

ocean-kat — Mon, 05 Nov 2018 22:09:31 +0000

In reply to Failed attempt

Election polling data is based on several guesses. A few of those guesses are: What percentage of the electorate will be democrat, independant, or republican. Which respondents to the poll are likely to vote. What percentage of the vote will be older, middle aged, or young. The raw data is weighted to reflect those guesses. Those initial guesses have already turned out to be incorrect in some ways. Early voting has been robust beyond all expectations. In 29 states early voting has vastly exceeded early voting in previous mid term elections. In three states early voting has already exceeded the total vote in 2014. In some ways this looks good for democrats. As someone posted, you or Arta, youth vote has seen a remarkable increase. In other ways it looks better for republicans. The generic ballot numbers are improving for republicans. But it looks to be an unusual election year and we just don't know who and how many will turn out to vote.