dagblog - Comments for "Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Is Alive. Now What?"

FBI arrests Pak-American at

artappraiser — Sat, 04 May 2019 06:25:02 +0000

In reply to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Is Alive. Now What?

FBI arrests Pak-American at airport for JeM, ISIS links

Press Trust of India, Washington, UPDATED: MAY 04 2019, 09:28AM IST

A 35-year-old Pakistani-American national has been arrested by the FBI on his arrival from Pakistan for being in contact with two UN-proscribed terror groups the Islamic State and the JeM.Waqar Ul-Hassan, a naturalised US citizen who moved to America at the age of 15, was arrested at the Charlotte Douglas International Airport in North Carolina on Tuesday. Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) chief Masood Azhar was designated as a global terrorist organization by the UN on May 1. Hassan was arrested on two counts of making false statements in 2015 about his contacts with terrorist groups. If convicted, he faces up to eight years of imprisonment. According to court documents [....]

Robin Wright weighs in @

artappraiser — Tue, 30 Apr 2019 07:02:04 +0000

In reply to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Is Alive. Now What?

Robin Wright weighs in @ NewYorker.com:

Baghdadi Is Back—and Vows That ISIS Will Be, Too, April 29

[....] The video of Baghdadi seemed designed to refute President Trump’s claim, in February, that the U.S.-led coalition of more than seventy nations had eliminated the Islamic State “one hundred per cent.” Baghdadi claimed that isis offshoots—or “provinces,” as they are dubbed—have carried out ninety-two attacks in eight countries, even as its fighters were losing territory in Iraq and Syria. [....]

Baghdadi has repeatedly surprised the outside world, beginning with his revival, in Iraq, of the Al Qaeda franchise, which had been forced underground and had only a few hundred followers in 2007. Over the next seven years, he converted the jihadi movement into the Islamic State caliphate, with tens of thousands of fighters recruited from more than eighty countries. He has eluded capture while more than a hundred other isis leaders have been picked off in U.S. air strikes.

“Baghdadi’s survival despite a massive manhunt and the successful military campaign is impressive,” Daniel Byman, a Brookings Institution scholar and the author of the new book “Road Warriors: Foreign Fighters in the Armies of Jihad,” told me. “It shows the Islamic State retains functioning networks and considerably clandestine capacity in Iraq and Syria.” [....]

Baghdadi claimed that the underground movement is expanding, even as it loses turf. He congratulated two groups, in Mali and Burkina Faso, for recently pledging formal allegiance to isis and “enrollment in the ranks of the caliphate.” He praised its Burkina Faso branch for its attack on French forces and called specifically for more attacks against France, as well as other “crusader” nations [....]

“One thing in particular stands out in terms of looking forward,” Aaron Zelin, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and the founder of the Web site Jihadology, said. “When the video highlights the various areas Abu Bakr is being briefed on, it shows a folder that says Wilayat [Province] Turkey.” isis has not embraced a formal franchise in Turkey, so the reference “suggests potential future targets and willingness to possibly begin an insurgency or attempt to take territory there,” Zelin said.

On Monday, the U.S. intelligence community was analyzing the tape for authenticity, a State Department official told me. The Trump Administration is still claiming that it has the upper hand. “isis’s territorial defeat in Iraq and Syria was a crushing strategic and psychological blow, as isis saw its so-called caliphate crumble, its leaders killed or flee the battlefield, and its savagery exposed,” the official said. But he acknowledged that “this fight is not finished.”

Middle East experts and terrorist specialists were more cynical. “The international community should not kid itself—isis remains a serious force, even in Syria and Iraq,” Lister, the fellow from the Middle East Institute, told me. “In eastern Syria alone, isis appears to have conducted over eighty-five attacks since the loss of Baghouz, its final picket of territory. That’s no small feat. Thousands of fighters remain in operation, and the scale of the problem isis has left behind far eclipses what the U.S. left behind in Iraq, in 2010.” isis, he added, has existed and thrived without territory for longer than it controlled land. “I don’t think isis is desperate at all but supremely confident that they’ve set into stone conditions in which its future is now secure.”

NYTimes, 1 hr. ago, Ben

artappraiser — Tue, 30 Apr 2019 00:00:52 +0000

In reply to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Is Alive. Now What?

NYTimes, 1 hr. ago, Ben Hubbard from Beirut: Mysterious ISIS Leader Is Not Dead, New Video Shows

(with Eric Schmitt contributing from Washington, Hwaida Saad from Beirut, and Karam Shoumali from Berlin.)

[....] “Baghdadi has remained off the grid for so long that his sudden appearance will very likely serve as both a morale boost for ISIS supporters and remaining militants and as a catalyst for individuals or small groups to act,” said Colin P. Clarke, a senior fellow at the Soufan Center, a research organization for global security issues. “He is essentially reasserting his leadership and suggesting that he sits atop the command and control network of what remains of the group, not only in Iraq and Syria, but more broadly, in its far-flung franchises and affiliates.”

It was unclear when or where the video was recorded but the parts that refer to recent events, like the Sri Lanka attack, are addressed in audio, not video, suggesting that it may have been recorded weeks ago with newer audio portions added later [....]

[...] he calmly told a group of unidentified followers that the battle was far from over. “Truthfully, the battle of Islam and its people with the crusader and his people is a long battle,” he said. He called on his followers to continue pursuing their enemies “with all of their abilities.” And he said that the attack in Sri Lanka, in which at least 250 people were killed, was carried out “in revenge” for the Islamic State’s losses in Baghuz [....]

Despite being one of the most wanted men on the planet, his whereabouts remains a mystery.

He is believed to be in hiding somewhere in the sparsely populated desert spanning the border between Iraq and Syria. American intelligence and counterterrorism officials say he eschews all electronic devices, which could identify his location, and likely communicates through a series of couriers.

He remains a top target for the Central Intelligence Agency and the military’s elite Joint Special Operations Command, which includes the Army’s Delta Force and the Navy’s SEAL Team Six. Occasional reports of his death notwithstanding, multiple attempts to kill him have failed [....]

He also called out a number of the group’s leaders by name, mentioning fighters and operatives from Belgium, Australia and Saudi Arabia, reflecting the multinational organization the Islamic State has become.

“He’s exhibiting his ‘humble and modest’ self, unlike his last appearance where he is portrayed in what may be referred to as glorious standing, empowered by his group’s achievements, essentially standing at the top of the world,” said Laith Alkhouri, senior director of Flashpoint, which tracks global terrorism. “In today’s video, he appears defeated, but for his base he’s uplifting.” [....]

The authenticity of the video could not be independently verified but terrorism experts saw little reason to doubt that it was Mr. al-Baghdadi.

The Islamic State has not used frequent videos to create a cult of personality around its leader the way that Al Qaeda did with Osama bin Laden, but it could be heading in that direction, said Joshua Geltzer, who served as the senior director for counterterrorism on President Barack Obama’s National Security Council.

“I guess they considered the payoff worth it to show the organization hasn’t truly been defeated, even in its core manifestation,” he said.

Although the group has lost its territory in Iraq and Syria, it still claims a caliphate, which it considers a global project.

Hinting at the group’s global ambitions, the video ended with a follower handing Mr. al-Baghdadi files in plastic covers about the group’s different “states,” in Yemen, Somalia, Turkey and elsewhere.

WaPo, Liz Sly & Souad

artappraiser — Mon, 29 Apr 2019 23:49:17 +0000

In reply to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Is Alive. Now What?

WaPo, Liz Sly & Souad Mekhennet from Beirut, 3:40 pm ET:

ISIS leader Baghdadi makes first video appearance in 5 years, emphasizes group’s global reach

[....] The timing of the video, released by the Islamic State’s Furqan channel, seemed to confirm the widespread belief that he survived the Islamic State’s final stand in the battle of Baghouz in eastern Syria last month. Iraqi and U.S. officials say he is thought to be hiding out in the desert in either Syria or Iraq, but the video gave no indication of his location.

Rita Katz, director of the SITE Intelligence Group, said the video illustrates the “serious danger” that Baghdadi still poses as the Islamic State’s leader. His appearance demonstrates not only that Baghdadi is still alive, “but also that he is able to reemerge to his supporters and reaffirm the group’s us-vs-the-world message after all the progress made against the group,” Katz said in a posting on her Twitter account.

The message of congratulations to the Easter attackers in Sri Lanka is delivered in a separate, audio segment at the end of the video, suggesting that it was added after the video was made. Baghdadi described the attacks on churches and hotels, in which at least 250 people died, as revenge for the deaths of Islamic State fighters in the battle of Baghouz, and not for the white extremist attack on two mosques in New Zealand in March, as the Sri Lankan government has claimed. “This is part of the vengeance that awaits the Crusaders and their henchmen” he said, according to a translation provided by the SITE monitoring service.

Tellingly, he also thanks the attackers for their pledge of allegiance to the Islamic State, without claiming a direct role for the group in orchestrating the bombings.

References in the video to other recent events, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s April 9 election victory in Israel, the April 11 coup in Sudan and the resignation of Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, indicate, however, that the main video recording was made this month, between April 11 and 22 [....]

Already seeing right wingers

artappraiser — Mon, 29 Apr 2019 23:42:19 +0000

In reply to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Is Alive. Now What?

Already seeing right wingers on Twitter utilizing this news along the lines of "Dems soft on terror":

"Al-Baghdadi emerges from hiding to join crowded DNC 2020 field” pic.twitter.com/XNpafFkbX5
— Jack Posobiec ✝️ (@JackPosobiec) April 29, 2019