dagblog - Comments for "Democrats Can Still Seize the Center"

Trump holds steady among

artappraiser — Wed, 06 Nov 2019 02:54:46 +0000

In reply to Democrats Can Still Seize the Center

Trump holds steady among Latinos in new poll

A Telemundo survey suggests the president's anti-immigrant rhetoric has not appreciably hurt his standing among the potentially critical voting bloc.

By Laura Barron-Lopez @ Politico.com, Nov. 5

President Donald Trump appears to be holding relatively steady support among Latino voters compared to his performance in 2016, according to a new poll released Tuesday by Telemundo.

Nationally, 25 percent of Latinos say they would vote to reelect Trump — a slight drop from the 28 percent that most exit polls showed voted for him in 2016 — and 31 percent approve of his job performance. By comparison, 64 percent of Latinos overall say they would vote to replace the president, and 57 percent support impeaching and removing him from office [....]

Nate Silver big picture:

artappraiser — Wed, 06 Nov 2019 00:16:19 +0000

In reply to Democrats Can Still Seize the Center

Nate Silver big picture:

Folks, I'd recommend against getting super granular on polling methodology stuff, or trying to suss out why one poll says something different than the other, when we're a year away from the election.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2019

I'll say this: if you think Trump could win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote by like 13 points, you're doing it very very very very very very very very very very very very very wrong.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2019

I really don't see what's so

artappraiser — Tue, 05 Nov 2019 05:36:07 +0000

In reply to There are limited resources

I really don't see what's so hard, what's rocket science, about winning the district in this story, for one example, back away from Trump:

SUBURBAN/RURAL SWING WOMEN

By artappraiser on Sat, 10/12/2019 - 4:16pm |

After all, it has already been done in 2018 by their new House Rep by. casting herself as a moderate who wanted to solve problems

All I see you advocate instead is GOTV in already blue inner city areas by dragging people off their couches to vote for some pie in the sky lefty promises. Where it won't make a difference because those who already vote already vote blue. Meanwhile your exciting politically correct candidate, politically correct outrageously enough to get cynical leftist couch potatoes interested in voting, could turn off enough surburban/moderate voters in purple states to turn more of them red next time!

If they couldn't come out to vote for Hillary in a red or purple state, they are a problem, not a solution. They either are too far left or they listened to too much Russian agitprop. In a blue state, and then like it or not, it didn't matter. It is likely that what they like and want now will turn off purple state people. If they can't come out for a moderate, they are no help but a hindrance.

P.S. Here's what I see: I

artappraiser — Tue, 05 Nov 2019 05:01:28 +0000

In reply to I am not at all despondent,

P.S. Here's what I see: I wonder how come this 60-something white guy is not smiling, happy and energetic? How come he still fears the caravan invading hordes so much and is so miserably angry, anger that turns him into a monster, as to go out and find some (he thinks, but wrong) and throw acid in their face? How come "his president" isn't delivering happiness for him? Is it the deep state gets acid in the face next? Begs the question: how come someone like Peter (not verified) can't see the ugly tribal wars the mannikin in the White House following Fox click-bait propaganda constantly brews, how he has put a majority in misery. So much so that Trump deserves the google bomb created for Bush, "miserable failure", from his fans. I don't see any of his promises kept. None! Some proof of the pudding in being booed at the UFC event Saturday of how much the Trump rallies are Potemkin Villages, delusional. Talk about participants being paid....

America not made great again, America turning things ugly out of thin air.

I am not at all despondent,

artappraiser — Tue, 05 Nov 2019 04:37:18 +0000

In reply to You seem despondent even

I am not at all despondent, just think rmrd is always looking for bias confirmation where there is none. And to prove that anyone who once voted for Trump is a racist who must never be forgiven and burn in hell forever.

I think there is more than ample leeway in pursuing both swings and non voters. It just needs to be balanced. No reason urban inner city non voters and suburbanites can't have things in common. There is actually probably more commonality to be found there than with rabid lefties and righties, politically correct or right wing Christian passionistas.

I think you are idiotically falling for a Potemkin village in waxing happy about joyous Trump fans. They are 1/3 of the electorate at most. The balance of his 40% approval rating are people who dislike him for many different reasons but are voting for his economy and lack of major war.

Bernie is keeping the lefties busy with dreams of grandeur and that's fine and dandy for early primary season. But I daresay even Bernie would dump a large number of them by moderating signficantly if he won the nomination. Not gonna happen, just a "what if". He didn't stay in the Senate so long by being a purist radical. Right now it's a lot of hat, with not many cattle coming in the near future.

You seem despondent even

Peter — Tue, 05 Nov 2019 03:46:55 +0000

In reply to I read the New Republic

You seem despondent even defeated, Art. Paying people to vote for dems is a great idea it worked here in NM for years. The New Dems socialist version of free stuff for everybody doesn't seem to have the appeal of the direct deposit cash of past dem democracy. Perhaps Bloomberg could finance ATM voting machines that pay off like slot machines when the correct vote is entered.

I watched the Trump rally a few days ago and saw thousands of smiling energetic happy people. Then I watched the Bernie rally where Omar called for good old commie revolution and I saw few smiling faces. They were energetic in a robotic on que way and one guy was staring straight ahead like a zombie, very spooky.

The Squad led dem party doesn't seem too interested in dirty old democratic elections anymore and are relying on soft coup and or hard revolution.

I read the New Republic

artappraiser — Tue, 05 Nov 2019 02:28:23 +0000

In reply to There are limited resources

I read the New Republic article followed by the NYTimes article on which it is based and that it links to.

From the Times article this is what they are all basing their opinion on:

Our analysis shows that while 9 percent of Obama 2012 voters went for Mr. Trump in 2016, 7 percent — that’s more than four million missing voters — stayed home. Three percent voted for a third-party candidate.

Doesn't sound like much of a slam dunk, sounds pretty iffy to rely on this alone in the crucial swing states. And as you say There are limited resources in GOTV.

Myself, I suspect a lot of these stayed home precisely because they were mightily disappointed by the charismatic dream boy they envisioned in Obama. Those that probably wouldn't have got up off the couch to vote for Obama for a third term much less Hillary Clinton for her first. They don't want moderation, they want and expect visionary "change" of some kind and see that voting hasn't worked out that way for them. Meanwhile a majority would like to see change relegated to a few certain things (i.e., health care, immigration) and moderation and slowing of change for most everything else (i.e. taxes, economy, nanny state, political correctness related issues.)

Can you get them to the voting booth in sufficient numbers to count and to vote for the Dem instead of third party? Sure, you can bribe the already cynical about politics with cash money, that's what's probably required to make this work. Do they hate Trump enough to vote for anybody else? Maybe, maybe not. Maybe like A Guy Called Lulu, they think he is not much worse in effect than a lot of mainstream guys. Maybe they think he's bad on race issues but they at least knows where he stands, while they are eager to buy smears about Hillary Clinton and Biden types as crooked white priviledge folks who don't give a damn and hide their racial preferences, or see Corey Booker as sold out to elite educated privilege, or see Kamala Harris likewise plus a sell-out to the police state.

Cynical is the word. Some cheery bright-eyed passionate partisan volunteer at their door is not going to get a lot of them off the couch to the voting booth.

How do we know whether they

PeraclesPlease — Mon, 04 Nov 2019 22:09:00 +0000

In reply to There are limited resources

How do we know whether they didn't vote, or their votes were algorithmically discarded? Short answer is "we don't know". The Russians had Trump polling data via Kilimnik, they knew which precincts leaned heavily Dem, they were busy trying to gain access to voting machines (incl via Butina and other HumInt, and Republicans were more than happy to play along...)

[ugh, fixed Butina mis-autocorrect - "Buying"?]

There are limited resources

rmrd0000 — Mon, 04 Nov 2019 21:39:21 +0000

In reply to This is one the key takeaway

There are limited resources in GOTV, another POV is to focus on groups in critical sates who stayed at home in 2016

In 2016, over 4 million Democrats who voted in 2012 for Barack Obama didn’t show up at the polls to pull the lever for Clinton. It’s not that they voted for someone else; they simply didn’t vote at all. And as a reminder, Trump won three states by a total of 76,000 votes. The reasons for this are many, but the lesson is clear. Rather than obsess about winning back the voters that switched from Obama to Trump, Democrats should instead focus on inspiring those Obama voters who stayed home, who are “mostly young and nonwhite” and “share the progressive policy priorities of Democrats,” argued Sean McElwee, Jesse H. Rhodes, Brian F. Schaffner, and Bernard L. Fraga in the New York Times. Based on their careful analysis of the data, they advise Democrats to forget about those swing voters and figure out “why a campaign [Hillary’s] that sought to energize young voters of color failed to do so.” Here’s hoping the 2020 Democratic nominee gets the message.

https://newrepublic.com/article/153939/democrats-victory-not-depend-swing-voters

P.S. He just did another

artappraiser — Mon, 04 Nov 2019 04:23:45 +0000

In reply to Not super-related but I don't

P.S. He just did another "debunking spin" tweet, debunking negative spin about Biden.