but things still change every

artappraiser — Sun, 09 Feb 2020 00:14:47 +0000

In reply to 538 Says Bernie is The One

but things still change every day and it's not over til it's over:

I don't think it's simple at all. And even if it were, the fact that you wouldn't learn the identity of the not-Bernie candidate until *after Super Tuesday* (at which point 38% of delegates will have been chosen) is a huge advantage to Bernie. https://t.co/i2fF2DbIut
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 8, 2020

Our post-debate poll with @Ipsos is out!

It has lots of good news for SANDERS, BUTTIGIEG and KLOBUCHAR.

It has really bad news for BIDEN.https://t.co/WpCM0yXZ3j
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 8, 2020

BUTTIGIEG had the biggest increase in the number of voters who are considering him (maybe the most important metric in our poll). KLOBUCHAR and SANDERS also gained here.

BIDEN's numbers fell quite a lot. pic.twitter.com/SWkRpnUiYL
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 8, 2020

Favorability ratings changes were pretty mixed; a lot of candidates saw both their favorables and unfavorables increase. But KLOBUCHAR had the biggest net increase and BIDEN the biggest net decrease. pic.twitter.com/l0rl31oNgQ
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 8, 2020

Finally, BUTTIGIEG's numbers improved the most on perceived electability while BIDEN's fell quite a bit and dropped behind SANDERS.

Also not great news for WARREN on this question, and her numbers elsewhere the survey were mixed. pic.twitter.com/xUHbE07ux9
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 8, 2020

p.s. Also related to the debate. This is a bit technical.

Our model was handling the debate kind of stupidly, in that it assumed the impact would be realized in polls immediately. In the real world, of course, there's a lag because it takes several days to get new polls.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 8, 2020

In other words, when it ran this AM and saw no change in polls, the model assumed the debate had no impact. Which is wrong; we can't tell yet if there's an impact. We've changed it so the model now assumes there's a lag of ~5 days before debates are fully priced into the polling.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 8, 2020

One thing I think a lot of

artappraiser — Sat, 08 Feb 2020 23:17:14 +0000

In reply to 538 Says Bernie is The One

One thing I think a lot of people are underestimating is that the health care system in this country is ready to crack and both users and providers are at wit's end, literally suicidal in enough cases, so the number of people who have someone near and dear experiencing this is huge.

It may very well be more of that and that the effect of Trump hate is being over-estimated by all of us news junkies and Twitter users and the like.

As far as Obama-Trump voters, a reminder that Trump promised to fix it!

I'm not sure that the tagline "Medicare for all" is the best, though. Not if people read it as Medicare as it is. There's plenty enough bankruptcies among the elderly due to things Medicare doesn't cover.

But I do think there is a hunger for someone like Bernie emphasizing the topic, it shows up as a priority in poll after poll after poll, people who access the system are ready to crack and those who don't are frightened of same.

dagblog - Comments for "538 Says Bernie is The One"

but things still change every

One thing I think a lot of