dagblog - Comments for "New Hampsha Primary"

For those who follow such

artappraiser — Thu, 13 Feb 2020 21:19:09 +0000

For those who follow such things, here's a racist breakout by skin color from the Morning Consult national poll taken day after NH:

From Morning Consult poll:

Black
Biden 34%
Sanders 30%
Bloomberg 19%
Warren 8%
Buttigieg 4%
Steyer 3%
Klobuchar 1%

White
Sanders 28%
Bloomberg 19%
Biden 15%
Buttigieg 14%
Warren 11%
Klobuchar 7%

Hispanic
Sanders 48%
Bloomberg 17%
Biden 13%
Buttigieg 8%
Warren 7%
Klobuchar 3%
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) February 13, 2020

Nate Silver on the updated

artappraiser — Wed, 12 Feb 2020 11:50:20 +0000

In reply to New Hampsha Primary

Nate Silver on the updated 538 "model"

Our model has been updated, although one needs to treat it with a lot of caution since it's making guesses about the reaction to NH that may or may not resemble reality.

The main takeaway is that the chances of "no majority" are up to 1 in 3. https://t.co/JDz2dZ8bqR
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 12, 2020

The model didn't love NH for Bernie—whom, I should say, it's been very high on—as he underperformed its projections there by a couple of points. Sanders also got a couple of mediocre polls today hadn't hit the model yet as we awaited NH results.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 12, 2020

But it doesn't like anyone else's position either. It doesn't see why Klobuchar should get huge momentum out of a 3rd place finish, and she's at just 4% in national polls. It actually now has Bloomberg (who got a couple of good polls today) getting the 3rd-most delegates.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 12, 2020

One thing I wonder about a bit is whether Klobuchar could step on Bloomberg's bounce. Both candidates get very favorable media coverage and fill some of the same niches.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 12, 2020

Hot take incoming: I think Bloomberg's recent bounce is more about earned media & less about paid media than many people assume. The paid media obviously raises his floor. But he's gotten very favorable *recent* coverage on network/cable TV, which older voters watch.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 12, 2020

Bernie is winning and it’s

artappraiser — Wed, 12 Feb 2020 11:18:16 +0000

In reply to New Hampsha Primary

Bernie is winning and it’s fine! https://t.co/snNOHvr8al
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) February 12, 2020

Establishment’s gotta lock Pete and Amy in a shipping container, like in the Shield, move forward with a single post-Biden champion rather than two people who are going to spend the whole next debate blasting each other.
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) February 12, 2020

Yglesias followed that with this retweet:

Bernie desperately needs to not fall into the Corbyn trap of lefty ritualism. He doesnt have move an inch on any of his values or policies but he needs to come across as a normie, a patriotic American. Activist-speak is a filter for the well educated, not the broad working class.
— Lee Fang (@lhfang) February 12, 2020

he also wrote this:

As an "electability" candidate, Klobuchar has always made a lot more sense than Joe Biden or the mayor of the fourth-largest city in Indiana. https://t.co/pQTjjHlMWW
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) February 12, 2020

he later added these thoughts

Bernie desperately needs to not fall into the Corbyn trap of lefty ritualism. He doesnt have move an inch on any of his values or policies but he needs to come across as a normie, a patriotic American. Activist-speak is a filter for the well educated, not the broad working class.
— Lee Fang (@lhfang) February 12, 2020

It’s good to have a contest for the nomination, but there’s a clear need for thinking about how to change the rules to make these things shorter and less expensive.
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) February 12, 2020

God, we need some campaign

PeraclesPlease — Wed, 12 Feb 2020 06:47:01 +0000

In reply to ruh roh I don't like what I

God, we need some campaign trail nookie about now.

I find this interesting. I

artappraiser — Wed, 12 Feb 2020 05:24:34 +0000

In reply to New Hampsha Primary

I find this interesting. I think he represents an important type of voter and an influencer type as well:

I already miss @AndrewYang
— Preet Bharara (@PreetBharara) February 12, 2020

this is the kind of hyperbole

artappraiser — Wed, 12 Feb 2020 05:14:03 +0000

In reply to New Hampsha Primary

this is the kind of hyperbole I don't trust, at the same time it is the way politicos talk and how they attack, and it's Olivia Nuzzi reporting it and she's pretty respected, soooo, I think it's worth a gander. At the very least,it's worth knowing that it's a meme being spread"

“They’ve both taken on the stench of death,” says a staffer on a rival campaign. @Olivianuzzi reports https://t.co/JQoqg8oWSH
— New York Magazine (@NYMag) February 11, 2020

ruh roh I don't like what I

artappraiser — Wed, 12 Feb 2020 04:23:09 +0000

In reply to New Hampsha Primary

ruh roh I don't like what I was just hearing from the Kornacke guy on MSNBC, he was saying it's looking like Bernie won because he got a big majority in the urban areas and Pete was stronger in the suburban and rural ones...

say it ain't so, analysts tomorrow!...

or maybe Amy can do something bout that in the future....

as always, it ain't over til it's over, ask Presidents Paul Tsongas and Gary Hart

Andrew Yang and Michael

artappraiser — Wed, 12 Feb 2020 01:27:43 +0000

In reply to New Hampsha Primary

Andrew Yang and Michael Bennett have dropped out tonight. Bennet was a breaking on MSNBC just now., they showed live camera waiting for him to come speak. Hear is Yang:

Andrew Yang suspends his campaign: “I am the math guy and it is clear tonight from the numbers that we are not going to win this race. I am not someone who wants to accept donations and support in a race that we will not win.” https://t.co/enn9EReHqv pic.twitter.com/X9kh8vFmQE
— ABC News (@ABC) February 12, 2020

Iowa and NH only matter

ocean-kat — Tue, 11 Feb 2020 23:10:05 +0000

In reply to Ryan Lizza says hello?

Iowa and NH only matter because of the so called band wagon effect. It appears that a significant number of people will change their vote to support a rising candidate or to leave a failing candidate based on these early results even though the actual number of delegates awarded is meaningless/

Ryan Lizza says hello?

artappraiser — Tue, 11 Feb 2020 22:26:39 +0000

In reply to New Hampsha Primary

Ryan Lizza says hello?

Biden fled the state, Warren pre-spun expected poor performance, Bloomberg not competing. That’s 3 of 4 leaders in national polls. The 4th, Sanders, won NH landslide in 2016 and is expected to do the same tonight. Only .6% of delegates are up for grabs. How much will NH matter?
— Ryan Lizza (@RyanLizza) February 11, 2020