dagblog - Comments for "Nevada primary. It's Sat. nite and showtime!"

got to add this. Joe Biden

artappraiser — Mon, 24 Feb 2020 02:40:22 +0000

In reply to Nevada primary. It's Sat. nite and showtime!

got to add this. Joe Biden comes in second, likely to get delegates:

Joe Biden will finish second in Nevada, NBC News projects. https://t.co/XKdQ9EO1mN
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 24, 2020

Nevada results — 88% in pic.twitter.com/qNEhnZnsQO
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 24, 2020

this general takeaway is one

artappraiser — Mon, 24 Feb 2020 02:03:42 +0000

In reply to Guilty as charged to feeding

this general takeaway is one worth sharing, though, I think it's important. This is the founding editor of Politico:

“In 30-plus years of politics, I’ve never seen this level of doom. I’ve never had a day with so many people texting, emailing, calling me with so much doom and gloom,” said @ThirdWayMattB of the center-left group Third Way after Sanders' win in Nevada. https://t.co/PdHemRJqip
— John F. Harris (@harrispolitico) February 24, 2020

Guilty as charged to feeding

artappraiser — Mon, 24 Feb 2020 01:58:43 +0000

In reply to Nevada primary. It's Sat. nite and showtime!

Guilty as charged to feeding this horse race syndrome. I'll try to do better:

I can never get over how disproportionate the resources are that the media allots to covering politics vs. government. Govt needs so much more coverage. Politics needs so much less. https://t.co/42OBG3HqKY
— Garrett M. Graff (@vermontgmg) February 22, 2020

What horseshit.

PeraclesPlease — Sun, 23 Feb 2020 07:33:44 +0000

In reply to Pundits make too much about

What horseshit.
A total of 118,000 Dems caucused in Nevada in 2008, only 84,000 in 2016.
This year 70k-75k "voted early", though somehow in places that included up to 3 hour waits so people - doesn't that defeat the purpose of voting early? And how is voting early participating in a caucus where you have the pressure and excitement to maybe shift your vote based on reason and fanbois? Or is it a hybrid primary w/o the benefits? [narrator: yes, it's a hybrid primary/caucus, even though the "primary" uses cacus fallback choice rules]

So about 55,000 are listed as having shown up for the caucus at this time. Meaning a total of perhaps 120k-130k voters choose the candidates in a state of over 3 million people.

Takeaway? Fuck this. Super Tuesday will bring a wave of actual primaries, and we'll get to see who actually has serious support for November, even though it's all cockeyed and confused by now, and largely driven by media's inability to keep more than 2 names straight.

Some voters waited well over three hours to vote in at least one precinct on Saturday, and some voters worried that the delays would continue throughout the four-day process.

Voters even began to drive around Las Vegas looking for early voting sites with shorter lines. While the Culinary Union set up an early voting site at their hall to support their union members, conversations with Nevadans who had voted there revealed that many of them were not union members.

Debbie Curtis, a teacher in the state, told CNN Saturday she saw people walk away after waiting for an extended period of time at Palo Verde High School in Las Vegas.

So we're mostly down to Bernie, Biden, Pete & Liz. How will that look for South Carolina, where the Black vote comes in along with being a primary plus in the South, the more traditional and first much larger batch of voters - 370,000 Dems voted in 2016. Who can rise about the noise for the last contest before Super Tuesday? Will Amy survive even? Does Warren have any kind of traction or is it all Pete in largely tying with Bernie in a caucus state? Is Biden still seen as viable or as a wounded bird? Where does the Bloomberg rich safe semi-conservative vote go, if not to Biden?

Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada.

PeraclesPlease — Sun, 23 Feb 2020 06:54:20 +0000

In reply to Pundits make too much about

Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada. They rank 32, 33 & 42 in population, with a grand total of 16 electoral votes out of 538.
This is like the first 4 minutes of a football game. Bernie kicked a FG & leads 3-0. Anyone with a rock solid prognostication is faking it. It’s way too early. https://t.co/EwtbRiWdz0
— Save Our Country (@BigBlueWaveUSA) February 23, 2020

Bernie's NV support was still

artappraiser — Sun, 23 Feb 2020 05:52:03 +0000

In reply to Nevada primary. It's Sat. nite and showtime!

Bernie's NV support was still heavily, heavily with those under 40, the elders are still split more evenly:

Biggest fault line in the Democratic Party is generational (which I think has ideological overtones).

Bernie's big NV margin comes from making inroads with older demos. But he still has a big drop-off around age 40. pic.twitter.com/UY2J7sS9fE
— Bill Scher (@billscher) February 23, 2020

What the liberal PMC thinks

rmrd0000 — Sun, 23 Feb 2020 04:56:23 +0000

In reply to No intent to divert. To me,

What the liberal PMC thinks minorities want: critical race theory, latinx, race-based reparations

What most minority voters actually want: decent jobs, guaranteed health care, decent shot for all families regardless of race

Warren lays out her proposals. Buttigieg has his Douglass plan. Other Democratic candidates offer the same thing, Democratic candidates are proposing what Jilani says black voters actually want. My reading skills are fine.

Pundits make too much about

ocean-kat — Sun, 23 Feb 2020 04:28:43 +0000

In reply to An estimated 51% of Nevada

Pundits make too much about caucuses. They measure enthusiasm more than anything else. As all of us who followed the primary in 2016 and as PP recently pointed out, in some caucus states that also have a primary vote Sanders won the caucus and lost the vote. I'm not saying he's not doing well or that he can't win. Just that we won't know until some of the larger diverse states have a simple vote.

No intent to divert. To me,

artappraiser — Sun, 23 Feb 2020 04:09:16 +0000

In reply to Yawn

No intent to divert. To me, you are misreading the nuance of the conversation Jilani was involved in. You jump to misinterpret in order to argue with your favorite strawmen topics, instead of keeping an open mind to people saying complex things, you need to fit them in your simplistic strawmen categories. I don't agree that he was saying anything like what you are implying. It is a waste to go further, we read differently.

Andrew Yang:

artappraiser — Sun, 23 Feb 2020 04:02:07 +0000

In reply to Nevada primary. It's Sat. nite and showtime!

Andrew Yang:

It looks like Bernie’s going to win Nevada by a more significant margin than was the case in Iowa or New Hampshire. He is gaining steam. If he wins South Carolina it will be hard for another campaign to make a case with Super Tuesday only 3 days later.
— Andrew Yang (@AndrewYang) February 23, 2020

The tough part is that Bernie - and every other candidate - will almost certainly be unable to get a majority of delegates necessary to win the nomination outright. This will release the superdelegates and will likely result in a contested convention.
— Andrew Yang (@AndrewYang) February 23, 2020

and he retweeted this part of his CNN appearance:

Andrew Yang criticizes the caucus process: "If you're going to be a democracy, and you're trying to empower voters, why would you make it harder for people to vote in your earliest nominating process?" #cnnelection pic.twitter.com/9xQpTlzbBb
— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) February 22, 2020