dagblog - Comments for "Fear, Loathing, and Pandemics"

... Equally in character was

NCD — Thu, 12 Mar 2020 15:35:24 +0000

In reply to Fear, Loathing, and Pandemics

... Equally in character was Trump's preference for the vast, sweeping edict over the detailed, calibrated policy response. What the US needs most is a serious, extensive program of testing. Currently, the US is bottom of the global league table for coronavirus testing, at a rate of just five people in every million. (South Korea is testing 3,692 people per million.) But that kind of announcement would require too much work, not least because Trump shut down the dedicated Obama-era, White House unit that had focused on preparedness against a global pandemic. ...

Guardian, March 12

Went to a Networking talk

PeraclesPlease — Wed, 11 Mar 2020 06:17:46 +0000

In reply to An introvert willing to admit

Went to a Networking talk tonight - half carried out by video. A bit like Big Brother (except Sister) on the screen. As someone noted on Twitter, "now we'll find out for real if my presence was really needed at all those meetings". Other ways to socialize?

Politico reporter got the CDC

artappraiser — Wed, 11 Mar 2020 04:54:52 +0000

In reply to Fear, Loathing, and Pandemics

Politico reporter got the CDC Director to admit to something: Exclusive: U.S. coronavirus testing threatened by shortage of critical lab materials

...that he is not confident that U.S. labs have an adequate stock of the supplies used to extract genetic material from any virus in a patient’s sample — a critical step in coronavirus testing.

“The availability of those reagents is obviously being looked at,” he said, referring to the chemicals used for preparing samples. “I’m confident of the actual test that we have, but as people begin to operationalize the test, they realize there’s other things they need to do the test.”

The coronavirus task force convened by the White House is also aware of the shortages, and one official said members are working on it.

The growing scarcity of these “RNA extraction” kits is the latest trouble for U.S. labs....

Before coronavirus appeared,

artappraiser — Wed, 11 Mar 2020 04:39:59 +0000

In reply to Kos, Mark Sumner:

Before coronavirus appeared, we still didn't even have enough providers to take care of the added patient load from the introduction of Obamacare. (I.E., primary care docs have thousands of patients, suicide is growing among M.D.'s, serious R.N. shortage even before that, less and less care of any kind in rural areas, etc.). If the social distancing thing doesn't work out well to "flatten the curve" so the system can manage, this will not only kill people, it could truly crash our health care system so many more die of many other things for a long time. That they all need the best in protective gear stat is a given, but even with that, our current system cannot handle a mass of patients at the same time. Irony: could be begging for immigrant doctors and nurses, begging.

Kos, Mark Sumner:

NCD — Wed, 11 Mar 2020 04:12:27 +0000

In reply to Fear, Loathing, and Pandemics

Kos, Mark Sumner:

"Here’s your sobering thought for today. As of 3 PM ET, U.S. cases for the day were three times those of China and South Korea, combined. And the day’s not over......

....In fact, the first time I ran through this post, the top number was 870 cases. But before I could finish, that number was at 950. It seems likely to be at over 1,000 by the end of the day. That growth rate is even more disturbing when you check back just over a week and see that the numbers in the United States are going up faster than the growth rate Italy followed in the last week of February.

Also, despite claims over the past two days that the United States has shipped 1 million COVID-19 test kits to health departments across the nation, the actual number of people tested by the end of Monday was … 4,800. Considering that 1,800 had been tested by last Wednesday, the rate of testing to this point remains inexcusably low. This isn’t a containment strategy. This isn’t a mitigation strategy. This isn’t even a strategy."

US cases rising exponentially:

An introvert willing to admit

artappraiser — Tue, 10 Mar 2020 15:05:09 +0000

In reply to Fear, Loathing, and Pandemics

An introvert willing to admit looking forward to this whole social distancing thing

I'm as anxious and terrified as the next person about what's to come.

But to this introverted misanthrope, all this 'social distancing' and cancelling everything sounds *great*.https://t.co/gGPrkXUNi9
— Antonio García Martínez (@antoniogm) March 10, 2020

here's just another example

artappraiser — Tue, 10 Mar 2020 14:33:48 +0000

In reply to I think Sarah Kliff is the

here's just another example of chaos from a large bureaucracy during something like a pandemic when the bureaucracy does not have totalitarian control. I am not saying that more totalitarian control can't make mistakes, it most definitely can-was just thinking of the example of FDR with war powers sending Japanese Americans to internment camps. Just is what it is.

I think Sarah Kliff is the

artappraiser — Tue, 10 Mar 2020 13:55:51 +0000

In reply to Fear, Loathing, and Pandemics

I think Sarah Kliff is the best reporter in the country on our health care system and health care policy. If she recommends something, I read it. Here it is a tale of chaos, showing that how a bunch of state and city Democratic bureaucrats with their spin on how they have everything under control and pictures of big meetings and plans, all of that, means nothing when you already have a health care system that is at a breaking point before a pandemic arrives. Because: we are not a totalitarian country! And further, our health system is not under direct control of the government. What the bureaucrats say they are doing isn't necessarily what is going to happen. Is what it is, all you got is knowledge is power:

It took one New Yorker a full week and three separate E.R. visits to get a Coronavirus test. https://t.co/yPyjvyKDya
— Sarah Kliff (@sarahkliff) March 10, 2020

Lancet's editor extremely

artappraiser — Tue, 10 Mar 2020 12:58:28 +0000

In reply to Lancet, March 9, 2020

Lancet's editor extremely unhappy with Downing Street "leadership":

Editor of The Lancet, a medical journal https://t.co/Qr1DFYNtg8
— Somini Sengupta (@SominiSengupta) March 10, 2020

And I note our Anthony Fauci has been out on the cable news TV networks specifically advocating social distancing and especially for those most at risk. I saw that several times yesterday...

Lancet, March 9, 2020

NCD — Mon, 09 Mar 2020 22:00:21 +0000

In reply to Fear, Loathing, and Pandemics

Lancet, March 9, 2020

Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study

From the paper:

...we included 191 inpatients in the final analysis. 54 patients died during hospitalization and 137 were discharged. The median age of the 191 patients was 56·0 years, ranging from 18 years to 87 years.

The shortest observed duration of viral shedding among survivors was 8 days.... whereas the longest was 37 days.

The median time from illness onset (ie, before admission) to discharge was 22·0 days, whereas the median time to death was 18·5 days

Median age all 56 years

Median Age 54 non-survivors - 69·0

Median Age 137 survivors - 52·0

total in study - 72% cases male, 38% female

deaths - 70% male, 30% female

28% death rate for those hospitalized with coronavirus in this study. For 2020 flu, 8200 deaths with 140,000 hospitalizations, or 6% death rate those hospitalized for flu.

Lancet study, earliest age coronavirus case hospitalized, 18, oldest 87. Note viral "shedding" was detected up to 37 days after illness onset. (why the current procedure of a 14 day quarantine? A educated guess it seems, this virus is previously unknown as to its behavior)