dagblog - Comments for "What 5 Coronavirus Models Say the Next Month Will Look Like"

With a number of States going

moat — Sun, 26 Apr 2020 20:57:34 +0000

In reply to What 5 Coronavirus Models Say the Next Month Will Look Like

With a number of States going forward with reopening plans without controlling transmission of the virus first, a lot of the arguments don't matter any more. The die is cast.

The Trump, "We will see what happens" is the model. No need to dig further into the agenda.

I feel like a passenger on a large cruise ship.

“The U.S. is now expected to

artappraiser — Sat, 25 Apr 2020 04:24:09 +0000

In reply to What 5 Coronavirus Models Say the Next Month Will Look Like

“The U.S. is now expected to blow past the 60,000 mark around the beginning of May, earlier than the IHME model had projected and with less of the dramatic leveling-off that its forecast had initially baked in.” https://t.co/s1b4PYrmUc
— Blake News (@blakehounshell) April 24, 2020

As Jim Yong Kim said in the

moat — Fri, 24 Apr 2020 21:48:28 +0000

In reply to Surges is a good word to use,

As Jim Yong Kim said in the article you linked to in another place, the infection needs to be attacked aggressively. All these models vary in relation to measures that are taken or not. All the emphasis on reopening the economy is not taking aggressive action. It is acting like it is merely a bad storm we have to wait out.

We continue to waste precious time.The GOP strategy to pit State against State is killing us. Nero fiddles while Rome burns.

Ah here is the related

artappraiser — Fri, 24 Apr 2020 21:32:43 +0000

In reply to Surges is a good word to use,

Ah here is the related economics problem in a nutshell:

Retweeted by "Pete Wells"

I remain astonished at the number of people who can not grasp the concept that businesses operating at two-thirds demand with full operating costs and overhead is in many cases a more rapid financial death sentence than simply not operating at all https://t.co/fYHpD2qE6O
— kilgore trout, compulsory consumer (@KT_So_It_Goes) April 24, 2020

and then followed up by him with this

That last retweet is in fact the reason many seasoned restaurateurs shut down before they were told to.
— Pete Wells (@pete_wells) April 24, 2020

Surges is a good word to use,

artappraiser — Fri, 24 Apr 2020 21:13:10 +0000

In reply to That observation fits with

Surges is a good word to use, helps. It's hard to remember the big picture of why we are doing this before there's any herd immunity. It's just because the health care systems can't handle everybody sick at once.That's all, no promise that we're somehow "defeating" the virus by doing this. We're not, it's still there and still after us. Heck AIDS flu and common cold are still out there, no cure. Reminds me that they do have that vaccine now for HPV that they push all young girls to get, though....

I'm babbling now. That's cause my brain and epidemiology and statistics are not a good match.

That observation fits with

moat — Fri, 24 Apr 2020 17:26:13 +0000

In reply to Here's interestingly along

That observation fits with the Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience call to move from broad quarantine to supported isolation.

The need to achieve herd immunity is in all the epidemiological models. The problem is how to get there without catastrophic surges.

Dr. Michael Osterholm explains it here:

Here's interestingly along

artappraiser — Fri, 24 Apr 2020 16:38:46 +0000

In reply to After publishing the article,

Here's interestingly along same lines as Nate Silver and Tyler Cowen, but goes further, explains how we NEED to swing back and forth for epidemiological reasons. I ran across it because it was retweeted by urban planner Richard Florida and I follow him:

Here's an important discussion that people are missing in this polarized environment. Not only can we not remain in full lock-down forever because of its human costs, we should not. Good luck discussing that though. (Work by @mlipsitch/@yhgrad and others). https://t.co/iVtVYVu3xG pic.twitter.com/eJ3qGpwQz2
— zeynep tufekci (@zeynep) April 24, 2020

After publishing the article,

artappraiser — Fri, 24 Apr 2020 07:31:56 +0000

In reply to Ok Nate Silver's put a full

After publishing the article, Nate Silver put up a ton of afterthoughts on Twitter, including the following on prediction of next 18 months:

I was trying to think through "There are so many unknowns, but if you had just one modal prediction for what the next 18 months look like, what would it say?" and I think it would probably would look a lot like @tylercowen's from a couple weeks ago: https://t.co/2xJlkTC0CM pic.twitter.com/1dCnYjDYw8
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 24, 2020

In short (my version not Tyler's): it's a slog; there's never really any plan; we never really decide what trade-offs we're willing to make and so we careen back and forth and to some extent get the worst of both worlds.

(The next tweet is more optimistic.)
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 24, 2020

BUT: A lot of things chip away at the margins. Technology and new drugs/therapies help. We never get "enough" testing or contact tracing but we do get *some*. We learn more about the disease. We make improvements through trial-and-error.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 24, 2020

Ok Nate Silver's put a full

artappraiser — Fri, 24 Apr 2020 00:11:44 +0000

In reply to What 5 Coronavirus Models Say the Next Month Will Look Like

Ok Nate Silver's put a full article up:

The US as a whole hasn't really turned the corner yet.

Coronavirus cases are still at or near their peak in about half of US states. https://t.co/7CxfmiXPWZ
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 23, 2020

The stuff is well outside of

moat — Thu, 23 Apr 2020 16:48:01 +0000

In reply to appreciate your input and

The stuff is well outside of my expertise. I am not able to judge in the way described in the NYT article:

“If you’re just looking at one model, you’re not seeing the full diversity of what could happen,” said Mr. Reich, who leads the team that aggregated the data.

I do see how the uncertainty involved in projecting a model is a babushka doll within the larger uncertainty of what are the factors determining outcomes. We have no idea of how many people are infected yet. When that becomes a number, maybe my tiny mind could understand the rest of the math.