dagblog - Comments for "[POLLS] Biden bolsters lead over Trump in Michigan after first debate"

By party registration

artappraiser — Fri, 09 Oct 2020 10:51:31 +0000

In reply to Key @pewresearch chart: Biden

By party registration

Republicans: Trump/LeanTrump 92%; Biden/LeanBiden 6%

Democrats: Trump/LeanTrump 3%; Biden/LeanBiden 96%

Independents: Trump/LeanTrump 35%; Biden/LeanBiden 53%

This Pew Research Center

artappraiser — Fri, 09 Oct 2020 10:31:28 +0000

In reply to Key @pewresearch chart: Biden

This Pew Research Center survey has the largest sample size I’ve ever seen on an election poll – 10,543 registered voters.

But the result isn’t much different than other public polls: Biden 52%, Trump 42%. Lots of good data in here.https://t.co/EEpO7d6Q4t
— Kevin Robillard (@Robillard) October 9, 2020

Key @pewresearch chart: Biden

artappraiser — Fri, 09 Oct 2020 09:38:12 +0000

In reply to [POLLS] Biden bolsters lead over Trump in Michigan after first debate

Key @pewresearch chart: Biden leads Trump 52%-42% overall, but unprecedented partisan polarization between absentee/mail voters (39% of all), early in-person voters (21%) and Election Day voters (33%). Per survey, 7% still unsure which method they’ll use. pic.twitter.com/yvjOYjQFSG
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 9, 2020

Senior and coming for ya like

artappraiser — Fri, 09 Oct 2020 03:01:10 +0000

In reply to Drumpf's a senior all of a

Senior and coming for ya like a vampire, make you his forever:

Holy shit. Trump, who won't say if he's tested negative for coronavirus (so he either hasn't been tested or is still testing positive), says he plans to do a rally this Saturday night in Florida. pic.twitter.com/e6s5O5kEHY
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 9, 2020

Drumpf's a senior all of a

artappraiser — Thu, 08 Oct 2020 20:20:53 +0000

In reply to Maybe a large part of that

Drumpf's a senior all of a sudden, what a surprise!

me as a senior in high school talking to the freshmen whilst looking like a 7 year old: pic.twitter.com/S4R7s8CBgJ
— Siraj Hashmi (@SirajAHashmi) October 8, 2020

Fox News national poll

artappraiser — Thu, 08 Oct 2020 05:30:03 +0000

In reply to [POLLS] Biden bolsters lead over Trump in Michigan after first debate

Fox News national poll released a few hours before the vice presidential debate https://t.co/ttyUM5xaaG pic.twitter.com/jW6zgC86cK
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 8, 2020

don't wanna die:

artappraiser — Thu, 08 Oct 2020 02:32:02 +0000

In reply to Maybe a large part of that

don't wanna die:

When you have this kind of turn out at The Villages for Biden, you know the FL polls are pretty accurate!! Side note, Pence is going to The Villages on October 10th to spread the Trump Virus. Vote early Florida! While you still can! #BidenHarris

pic.twitter.com/00M0gOiXvc
— Mystery Solvent (@MysterySolvent) October 7, 2020

A golf cart parade in The Villages, FL to hand deliver our ballots to the Board of Elections. Easily 400+ carts participated. These seniors are making sure their votes are COUNTED! pic.twitter.com/DAeloJ19xD
— ann toomey (@anntoomey1) October 7, 2020

Some Nate Silver worthwhile

artappraiser — Thu, 08 Oct 2020 00:05:32 +0000

In reply to [POLLS] Biden bolsters lead over Trump in Michigan after first debate

Some Nate Silver worthwhile opining in coupla tweets, on Biden getting good support from Independents, etc.

If I had to guess, I'd take the under on Biden's current 9.5 (!) point lead. But I don't know. The polls show Biden doing super duper well among independents and those propel his big leads despite pretty decent numbers for Republicans on party ID. https://t.co/Sc9sOeIb87
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 7, 2020

And is it *that* hard to believe that a winning a debate + the president catching COVID (along with a dozen other people in the WH) while obviously not taking enough precautions would move the polls by 2-3 points? That's a pretty small move, all things considered.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 7, 2020

The other thing I don't love about the obsession with partisan non-response bias is that if you're feeling too despondent about the election to answer a pollster's phone call, I'd also imagine you're less likely to turn out to vote.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 7, 2020

Maybe a large part of that

artappraiser — Wed, 07 Oct 2020 06:45:06 +0000

In reply to And there, FINALLY revealed,

Maybe a large part of that group giving him job approval has been conservative/Republican-learning seniors? (Comes to mind they are much more known to answer polls! And they vote reliably in mid-terms, where GOP often fares better) Apparently he is really suddenly cratering with the senior demographic, see upthread and here again:

Is Trump losing his edge with seniors in Florida?

As Election Day approaches, retirees in the crucial battleground state are deserting the US president over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic https://t.co/Qdn5ucUgYH
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 7, 2020

In Florida, one in five residents is over 65. The state is a magnet for retirees from the US north-east and Midwest, who are drawn by warmer weather and lower taxes https://t.co/Qn3hZNSX0U pic.twitter.com/rKW3OAVyRI
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 7, 2020

Donald Trump himself calls Florida home after switching his primary residence from New York to Mar-a-Lago, his resort in Palm Beach. But polls show the president is haemorrhaging support among seniors — a shift that could prove decisive in November https://t.co/Qn3hZNSX0U pic.twitter.com/rqrgLP8NMx
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 7, 2020

A recent poll of likely voters in Florida, conducted by AARP, a lobbying group for older Americans, showed Joe Biden leading Trump by one point, on a 49-48 margin, with over 65s https://t.co/Qn3hZOaxSs pic.twitter.com/SZ069lH0IG
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 7, 2020

Many retirees in Florida have pointed to the president’s handling of coronavirus as a key reason for backing Joe Biden. Florida has recorded more than 716,000 Covid-19 cases and has the third highest count per 100,000 people in the US, according to FT data https://t.co/Qn3hZOaxSs pic.twitter.com/JalssO14Xc
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 7, 2020

Seniors are more likely to vote than their younger counterparts, and they have been seen as reliably Republican in recent elections. But opinion polls suggest that they are turning against Donald Trump in record numbers https://t.co/Qn3hZOaxSs pic.twitter.com/NqL0xqbANG
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 7, 2020

In presidential contests, Florida is a bellwether of national success: the victor in the state has gone on to win the White House in 13 out of the past 14 presidential elections.

Does Donald Trump have enough time to win Florida’s seniors back? https://t.co/Qn3hZNSX0U pic.twitter.com/93Mtu7fXXg
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 7, 2020

And there, FINALLY revealed,

artappraiser — Wed, 07 Oct 2020 06:26:55 +0000

In reply to New Herald poll shows Trump

And there, FINALLY revealed, is the SAME 1/3 of the country that has reliably polled as cuckaroo conservative MY WHOLE ADULT LIFE. So it took the coronavirus infection and reaction to FINALLY wrest that 8 or 9% away from giving Trump approval??? Nate Silver just wrote an essay mostly suggesting "it was the economy stupid" But I don't know if I buy that. They are still a mystery...