dagblog - Comments for "[POLLS] “Never Trumpers” are key to Biden’s Lead in the polls"

^ If i can humbly tell Nate

artappraiser — Tue, 20 Oct 2020 20:20:58 +0000

In reply to Biden's gain in swing state

^ If i can humbly tell Nate what "to make of this": EVERY SWING VOTER IN A SWING STATE COUNTS a gazillion times more than any others. Them that the pro-woke crew like to label as "racists", the suburban women who are labeled "Karen's", the seniors who voted for Trump in 2016, them the Never Trumper Republicans who loathe high federal taxes, them that loathed Hillary for this or that reason, all of the evil "them" need to be courted.

It's right here, they know:

BIDEN CAMPAIGN: TRUMP COULD STILL WIN THIS

Orion 1 day 8 hours ago

And STFU for now with the antagonistic protesting and woke policing.

Biden's gain in swing state

artappraiser — Tue, 20 Oct 2020 20:09:12 +0000

In reply to [POLLS] “Never Trumpers” are key to Biden’s Lead in the polls

Biden's gain in swing state polls has been considerably more modest than his gain in national polls. pic.twitter.com/ZN7MRZqccr
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 20, 2020

It's hard to know what to make of this, although I'd keep in mind that Biden's state polls were probably a little better for him than national polls pre-debate. So national polls have gone from 7 to 10 while state polls have gone from implying an 8-point lead to 9 points instead.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 20, 2020

But then there's also losing

artappraiser — Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:53:47 +0000

In reply to [POLLS] “Never Trumpers” are key to Biden’s Lead in the polls

But then there's also losing a significant number of seniors in swing states that he had before:

President Trump’s weakened standing with seniors is important because nearly every competitive state in the election is also home to large shares of people age 65 and older https://t.co/TUahMBkuDM
— Capital Journal (@WSJPolitics) October 20, 2020

Key paragraph:

artappraiser — Tue, 20 Oct 2020 03:14:32 +0000

In reply to [POLLS] “Never Trumpers” are key to Biden’s Lead in the polls

Key paragraph:

Longer term, these numbers suggest turmoil in the partisan alignment. Those who prefer a more traditional Republican may be searching for a new political home since their party is now more supportive of a populist approach. On the Democratic side, there is a much talked about inter-party divide ready to boil over. On that side of the aisle, the traditional and populist wings are evenly matched

Also behooves to think about what this kind of stat means in all downticket races, including the all important Senate.

And should be noted this is THE Biden bi-partisan thing, they are happy with bipartisan and moderate talk in general (though of course on specific individual policy issues, the mileage may vary. I.E. some care more about gun rights, global warming, federal deficits, taxation levels, culture wars like abortion etc., and will veer right or left on those particular things.) Just don't throw populist righteous anger at them (yes I am thinking of Bernie bro types who think fighting fire with fire is great fun and sport! As do Trumpies.)