dagblog - Comments for "Election Thread #1"

538 final: easy House, 3/4

PeraclesPlease — Tue, 03 Nov 2020 11:04:00 +0000

538 final: easy House, 3/4 chance to flip Senate (yet complex, a myriad of possible outcomes and seat margins), and overall a stable very good chance that Biden wins, though a very real 1/10 chance Biden loses or ends in a tie.

Note that extreme early voting blows away any chance _likely voters" don't show up - a vote cast is already banked, unlike 2016 where much less early voting (vote theft and ballot disqualification aches still if concern, but Democrats seem pretty well prepared to contest any issues and actually mobilize, unlike prior elections). This time there are far fewer undecided voters, so it's really about GOTV and voter/vote repression or disqualification - which again matters less with those who already voted. Presumably no butterfly ballot/hanging Chad (poor Chad) probs this year, but electronic voting can have glitches and/or be hacked.

Oh, yes, presumably all this excitement and extraordinary turnout affects state level races, which might change Dem's fortunes somewhat in the legislatures and state courts, though as Gerald Ford wisely said, "No Instant Miracles". Oh wait, that was people flipping his WIN buttons - "Whip Inflation Now" - upside down. Naughty people.

BTW, anyone seen that ratf*cker Roger Stone? He's been behind 2 coups, worth considering his 3rd attempt.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-senate-forecast/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-presidential-election-fo...

USPS may biff it anyway

PeraclesPlease — Tue, 03 Nov 2020 09:02:22 +0000

In reply to "Sullivan closing out today

USPS may biff it anyway

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5fa0a3e7c5b67617e64a5cfd

Anxiety index: the entire Ben

PeraclesPlease — Tue, 03 Nov 2020 08:34:56 +0000

In reply to Election Thread #1

Anxiety index: the entire Ben and Jerry’s freezer at the grocery store is empty. pic.twitter.com/yA33OxD0Ix
— Kevin Roose (@kevinroose) November 3, 2020

Here is a typical Wisconsin

artappraiser — Tue, 03 Nov 2020 08:17:32 +0000

In reply to Election Thread #1

Here is a typical Wisconsin version of whypipple. Politics is not personal there. They don't approve of crime of any kind and they don't like violence. They prize civility and dislike anger (except ranting on talk radio, then it's ok.) This is why I was so worried about how the violent unrest in Wauwatosa and Kenosha would affect how people voted:

US election: Trump supporter replaces neighbour's stolen Biden sign @ BBC News

Tim Place is one of the few Joe Biden voters in his Wisconsin neighbourhood. When his Biden-Harris sign was stolen, he got some unexpected help - from a Trump-supporting neighbour.

p.s. perhaps Ridge added "be

artappraiser — Tue, 03 Nov 2020 06:53:40 +0000

In reply to Gov. Tom Ridge to PA

p.s. perhaps Ridge added "be patient while votes are counted" as a counter to this news:

>> @stcollinson: "Trump closed out his bid for a second term with a false warning that 'cheating' in the key state of Pennsylvania could lead to violence in the streets. It was his latest attempt to tarnish the integrity of an election..." https://t.co/0dkr0GN96V
— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) November 3, 2020

Gov. Tom Ridge to PA

artappraiser — Tue, 03 Nov 2020 06:50:16 +0000

In reply to Election Thread #1

Gov. Tom Ridge to PA undecideds:

Should there still be a few of you undecideds out there - especially in Pennsylvania - I respectfully share my rationale why I’m supporting @JoeBiden. I hope you’ll join me. Either way, vote. And be patient while ballots are counted. https://t.co/rM9MnwjZhr
— Gov. Tom Ridge (@GovRidge) November 3, 2020

The absentee ballot that NY

artappraiser — Tue, 03 Nov 2020 06:43:29 +0000

In reply to "Sullivan closing out today

The absentee ballot that NY State sent me after I requested vote-by-mail said on the front of it: "Official Absentee Military Ballot". I am wondering now if they used those on purpose anticipating these issues. I think those have special privileges? Admit it could just be NY incompetence as well, which I have come to expect.

"Sullivan closing out today

PeraclesPlease — Tue, 03 Nov 2020 06:31:57 +0000

In reply to Election Thread #1

"Sullivan closing out today added that when he saw an astronaut had voted from space he thought there must be something Congress could do to be "tinkering with the system" so everyone can vote just as seamlessly."

Judge Emmet Sullivan, who's keeping a close eye on USPS to make sure mail-in ballots are delivered on time, says he's already voted (related to setting tomorrow’s check-in earlier than the daily 3 p.m. hearings he’s been holding). @CourthouseNews https://t.co/XeoiiCjeOb
— Megan Mineiro (@MMineiro_CNS) November 2, 2020

Nate Silver's probability

artappraiser — Tue, 03 Nov 2020 05:55:03 +0000

In reply to Election Thread #1

Nate Silver's probability numbers hot off the press:

Final joint probabilities:

72%: DEM trifecta
17%: Biden + GOP Senate + DEM House
6%: Trump + GOP Senate + DEM House
3%: Trump + DEM Senate + DEM House
2%: GOP trifecta

Other combinations have negligible chances.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020

very brave lady with an

artappraiser — Tue, 03 Nov 2020 05:28:40 +0000

In reply to Election Thread #1

very brave lady with an endorsement for Biden:

Trump leaned in & said, "you know it's I who released you, don't you? I succeeded & Obama failed" in the most vulnerable moment of my life, 48 hrs after releasing me from prison
It was never about me like it was never about us. It's about his ego. We deserve better #VoteBiden pic.twitter.com/SMhaAHKfWi
— Aya Hijazi آية حجازي (@_AyaHijazi_) November 2, 2020

I felt torn after the meeting worried about not being a loyal person as Trump demands loyalty as a means of maintaining control. But the government should not help citizens to make them loyal; it should do help b/c its the right thing to do #VoteBidenHarrisToSaveAmerica
— Aya Hijazi آية حجازي (@_AyaHijazi_) November 2, 2020