dagblog - Comments for "Arizona: Biden wins because of the split-ticket voters, stupids"

Trump needs 85% in AZ with a

PeraclesPlease — Thu, 12 Nov 2020 22:27:00 +0000

In reply to Arizona: Biden wins because of the split-ticket voters, stupids

Trump needs 85% in AZ with a 11,390 deficit and only 16,707 votes to count.
Trump's averaging 54.5%

With 9,236 left in PA, Biden looks to finish with a 60K margin.
[7914 left now with 54,273 margin, after Trump did well in the last batch,
so doesn't look like Biden will make that 60K now - needs 72.4%]

Trump needs 80% of the remaining 63,439 votes in Nevada to overcome Biden's 36,866 lead (Biden averaging 60%)

Biden up by 14057 in GA, pulling 70% of the vote. Some confusion how many ballots remain (2000 to "10's of thousands")

Biden needs 73% of remaining 105,023 in Alaska - averaging 54%.
And BIden needs 71% in North Carolina, averaging 62.5%, with Trump up by 73,244 and still 176,712 ballots to count.

[I don't expect a Biden NC win, and some have already called it for Trump, but 177K votes requires breaking down by types & locations/candidate favorability, not just raw percent of remainder. See what happened with Trump in PA where he just got 1300 votes with a 62% margin, even though Biden's been getting the majority up to now.]

Jeff Flake:

artappraiser — Thu, 12 Nov 2020 20:34:37 +0000

In reply to Arizona: Biden wins because of the split-ticket voters, stupids

Jeff Flake:

The counting of ballots is nearly done in Arizona. A huge THANK YOU to election officials, workers and volunteers for their professionalism and hard work.

Congratulations, President-Elect Biden for a hard won victory. Arizona has chosen well.
— Jeff Flake (@JeffFlake) November 12, 2020

I also just think more of

artappraiser — Thu, 12 Nov 2020 06:24:16 +0000

In reply to The way Eva Longoria got shut

I also just think more of those demographics are pro-small business and even gig work and are libertarian in some ways, they don't want a big federal government with lots of bureaucracy. I.E. they don't want to be told they can't use plastic straws. Some probably go for Trump's shtick like complaining about water pressure. They don''t want more regulation of Lyft and Uber, they see it as a innovation that needs time and offers work. Many Asians especially don't like affirmative action AT ALL. They want to buy multi family homes and use the rent to pay the mortgage, they don't want to have to fight a squatter not paying them rent because of strict renter protection laws. Etc. In California especially there's a ton of local regulation and I get an earload of how horrible they are from relatives. One thing I know they don't like, though riots, looting, constant protests--especially of the type using bulhorns yelling at the capitalist pigs at the cashier lanes at the local Target, probably not too into lockdowns where they can't do the service work they sell for a living.

Not so much about "woke" culture wars, that's a young privileged educated thing including a lot of whites, I don't think a lot of them even pay attention to that. (Young Latinas in my hood are certainly NOT into woke, they're into Cardi B.)

A lot of them are just "3rd way" Dems, when AOC's The Squad took over the messaging, like it or not, the GOP did that, the louder she and her pals are, the more the socialist label sticks. To Bernie's benefit, he at least knows how to talk to working class whites as a substitute demo.

Instead of growing their

artappraiser — Thu, 12 Nov 2020 05:39:10 +0000

In reply to Arizona: Biden wins because of the split-ticket voters, stupids

Instead of growing their House majority on election night, Democrats actually lost seats. Now the party is going through an internal reckoning on what went wrong.

Here are the most surprising House races of 2020 and what both parties can learn from themhttps://t.co/zZiQArvkZt
— POLITICO (@politico) November 12, 2020

The way Eva Longoria got shut

PeraclesPlease — Thu, 12 Nov 2020 05:28:00 +0000

In reply to So it seems pretty clear from

The way Eva Longoria got shut down should give some idea. As REM sang, "Everybody Hurts" - focusing down on one group's pain at the expense of others just doesn't work. Telling people to shut up just doesn't work.

Hispanic population 52m (47m citizens)

Black population 44m

Asian population 22m (and growing comparatively fast)

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/05/07/asian-americans-are-the...

So it seems pretty clear from

artappraiser — Thu, 12 Nov 2020 05:07:56 +0000

In reply to Arizona: Biden wins because of the split-ticket voters, stupids

So it seems pretty clear from Florida to California that Democrats lost many Asian and Latino voters and you need to start asking why. Orange County flipped back to Red from Blue. It's one thing not to be inspired by a Dem message but its quite another to vote Republican. https://t.co/nWH3M8FmlO
— Darrell Owens (@IDoTheThinking) November 12, 2020

same story way back on Nov. 4

artappraiser — Thu, 12 Nov 2020 00:30:12 +0000

In reply to Arizona: Biden wins because of the split-ticket voters, stupids

same story way back on Nov. 4 from the A.P. It hasn't flipped to a blue state from a red one, it's a new category: a split-ticket state. This year, it was still Republican down ticket, but local GOP shouldn't count on that--if those bums don't do their job, they might get the axe next time.

ELECTION 2020- The former vice president benefited from the state’s changing demographics and successfully won over swing voters who split their tickets two years ago to elect a Republican governor and a Democrat to the U.S. Senate. https://t.co/Gh9ZREgnkP
— WDRB News (@WDRBNews) November 4, 2020

Likewise, Dems who think this vote means AZ is moving towards any kind of Dem platform, whatever it might be in the future, are deluding themselves.