dagblog - Comments for "How independents, Latinos & Catholics shifted from 2016 & swung states for Biden & Trump"

Sure but it's not anything

ocean-kat — Fri, 13 Nov 2020 19:04:08 +0000

Sure but it's not anything like throw the bums out. 95 out of 100 senators get re-elected and 5 seats flip. It about the same in the house, 95% get re-elected and about 5% flip. That tiny change can produce large swings in policy. But again, we have to conclude that there's almost no accountability or the a majority of the electoral likes what the vast majority of the politicians currently in power are doing.

On balance of power at

artappraiser — Fri, 13 Nov 2020 18:45:40 +0000

In reply to "That's just a recipe for

On balance of power at national level, Slotkin sees different, I'm talking the same thing she is

She thought for a moment. “It’s going to be exceptionally hard to do. But if we do not keep the door open for people, and allow them to walk through that door, and keep a hand out to help them through, we’re just gonna [move] in pendulum swings. One party wins and we only govern for half of America; then the next party wins and they only govern for half of America … We’re going to have stalemated government that can’t do anything.”

"That's just a recipe for

ocean-kat — Fri, 13 Nov 2020 18:13:32 +0000

In reply to yes, yes, yes, that's surely

"That's just a recipe for continually throwing the old bums out, let's try the other bums this time."

But that's just not what happens. And I've seen no reliable data that supports the notion that it will happen in the future. Incumbents win the vast majority of times. Either there is no accountability or the electorate likes what their elected officials are doing.

yes, yes, yes, that's surely

artappraiser — Fri, 13 Nov 2020 17:10:36 +0000

In reply to And then there's the Korean K

yes, yes, yes, that's surely what's going to happen. I just don't see how big tent parties can continue to have control of the electorate. If they stick to their arcane rules of running Congress, they are just going to get continual grief from favoring one camp over another. I'm no rocket scientist,I don't know how to solve it, how to make common good sausage, but surely it is not to say: you choose between one of two parties on vague ideology and platforms, and sit back and hope they represent your interests. That's just a recipe for continually throwing the old bums out, let's try the other bums this time.

Edit to add: note this is really just problematic at the Federal level. People who are activist about something end up figuring out how to affect policy locally and if a larger group disagrees, they learn to fight back about that, too.

And then there's the Korean K

PeraclesPlease — Fri, 13 Nov 2020 08:49:10 +0000

In reply to DIY renegade campaigns are a

And then there's the Korean K-Pop fans who banded together and overloaded Trump disinfo efforts.
Kinda cool, though if it's on the other foot, might not be so nice - see the Koming K-haos.

DIY renegade campaigns are a

PeraclesPlease — Fri, 13 Nov 2020 08:46:05 +0000

In reply to How independents, Latinos & Catholics shifted from 2016 & swung states for Biden & Trump

DIY renegade campaigns are a thing.
What the bastards behind CItizens United (which I actually agree with - perhaps the last time I was swayed by Glenn Greenwald in saying that the Constitution probably did not mean for the FEC to shut down small groups self-organizing for a candidate), 2020 capitalized on.
But Citizens United wasn't quite grassroots, nor Lincoln Project, the way Meidas Touch was.
Watch out - could get crazy going forward. It's so easy to make a difference with the internet's reach, if done right.
(and better citizen activism than breaking windows and hassling diners)

Small @MeidasTouch back story—I was first friends w/ Ben & Brett—I hammered & convinced them to be a PAC over several calls—one while I sat in a Burger King parking lot w/ my son. They then made the magic happen. The rest is history. So proud of @meiselasb @BMeiselas @J_Mei21. https://t.co/YK4ymWLEPn
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) November 13, 2020

Neglected Hispanics still

PeraclesPlease — Fri, 13 Nov 2020 08:24:57 +0000

In reply to How independents, Latinos & Catholics shifted from 2016 & swung states for Biden & Trump

Neglected Hispanics still fight
(Mexican-Americans, not just "Hispanics")
whole thread, pretty good.
25 years we've known the large Mexican demo was growing,
yet we're still acting surprised & unresponsive.
Wonder how much is because Cubans & Puerto Ricans are closer
to eastern media centers, stuff out west is just California, et al, ignored itself

Biden’s campaign has received intense scrutiny for failing to invest early enough in Latino outreach. The lifeline for Biden, even as he lost ground among diverse groups of Latinos in places like FL and TX? Mexican American activists that didn’t wait for the Democratic Party.
— Jose A. Del Real (@jdelreal) November 7, 2020

How Arizona became a swing state: a decade of organizing by Mexican Americans, a surge of liberal money, and the ghost of John McCain. My latest w/ @KnowlesHannah https://t.co/rCGbjvl35R
— Jose A. Del Real (@jdelreal) November 8, 2020

Supports the idea of building

PeraclesPlease — Fri, 13 Nov 2020 07:20:36 +0000

In reply to More Biden 2020 vs. Clinton

Supports the idea of building support, that a lost but challenged election this time can lead to a win next.

But also gives an idea much of this isn't about the candidate or ideas, but just drifts in polarization over time.

More Biden 2020 vs. Clinton

artappraiser — Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:59:41 +0000

In reply to How independents, Latinos & Catholics shifted from 2016 & swung states for Biden & Trump

More Biden 2020 vs. Clinton 2016 + 2012 studies,.Wisconsin & Michigan

In Wisconsin, Biden tended to gain the most ground in counties where Clinton had already gained versus Obama (e.g. Ozaukee, Waukesha, and Dane).

On the flipside, Biden lost even more ground in 27 of the 30 counties where Clinton's margin was 20+ points worse than Obama's. pic.twitter.com/Xq8fuyX13d
— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) November 13, 2020

Michigan had an even stronger trend (r^2=.68) of Biden gaining the most ground in counties where Clinton had already gained versus Obama (e.g. Washtenaw/Kent/Ottawa).

But Biden also made solid gains in places where Clinton underperformed Obama by single-digits (e.g. Livingston). pic.twitter.com/HkCeyvkgwF
— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) November 13, 2020

The ultimate 'splainer why

artappraiser — Fri, 13 Nov 2020 03:38:35 +0000

In reply to How independents, Latinos & Catholics shifted from 2016 & swung states for Biden & Trump

The ultimate 'splainer why the national Dem party needs to court the middle and the Republican party doesn't:

The crisis isn’t too much polarization. It’s too little democracy.

If Republicans couldn’t win so much power while losing votes, the US wouldn’t be in the current crisis.

By Ezra Klein @ Vox.com, Nov 12, 2020, 11:40am EST

Basically a summary of what he learned writing his book on political polarization, so grab it and you don't have to read the book. Cavaet: no easy solutions if Dems keep losing the ability to undo some of the gerrymandering much less the electoral college.

Alternately, my thoughts: people moving away from urban areas because of Covid-19 might even things out some!