dagblog - Comments for "Before the Tea Party: the Ghost of Republican Past"

The psychedelic flashbacks

acanuck — Mon, 24 May 2010 07:37:18 +0000

In reply to Doc, my concern isn't simply

The psychedelic flashbacks were fun, though. Ever looked at your hand, Genghis? I mean really, really looked at your hand?

Doc, my concern isn't simply

Michael Wolraich — Thu, 20 May 2010 16:39:25 +0000

In reply to I see your concern., Genghis.

Doc, my concern isn't simply that Republicans will be cyclically swept into power like a phase of the moon. They spent 40 years out of power, and it can happen again. But it was the moderate-controlled GOP that spent 40 years out of power. The GOP finally regained control of both houses in the Gingrich-led conservative sweep of '94. They spent 8 years running the Federal government under people like Bush, Cheney, DeLay, and Lott. The strategies that they've been using are working--in contrast with what the Tories had been doing in the U.K. and what the moderate and liberal Republicans had been doing in the 60s.

If the electoral center of the country drifts to-and-fro of its own accord, then you're probably correct that it won't drift too far to the extreme. But I contend that conservatives have been deliberately and very effectively pulling the needle to the right for the past 40 years and they're still pulling. Every decade, people seem to conclude that the GOP is on the verge of becoming unelectable, and when conservatives continue to get elected, people conclude that the center has shifted right. I conclude that the "center" is more or less a reflection of the number of conservatives in power vs. the number of liberals and that we have no reason to think that conservatives power will stop growing other than optimistic faith.

Here's a pertinent quote from Monta Huber, former state secretary for the moderate California Republican League: "I do have a lot of friends who are leaving the party or who have left. It's a little scary and very sad. But I am an optimist. I think eventually people will start to understand more. It will become more and more evident what is going on. Eventually the good always wins out. They may win the battle, but we will win the war."

That was from 1996.

I see your concern., Genghis.

Doctor Cleveland — Wed, 19 May 2010 22:55:49 +0000

In reply to Before the Tea Party: the Ghost of Republican Past

I see your concern., Genghis. And I hear your anxiety that the hard-right's "Purge our way to power" strategy will eventually bear fruit for them, even if it's a destructive short-term strategy. The real danger isn't that becoming crazier will help them win (as they think it will), it's that we have a tradition of alternating power, so eventually whoever's been in opposition gets a chance, even if their crazier than fruit bats. I see what worries you.

I'll admit that I'm in the less worried camp. I count on parties to eventually realize their self-interest, and move to where the median voters happen to be, although I admit that does not always happen in practice. I also think parties can't hold on to power for more than a couple of years unless they have policies that voters actually want, or are okay with. When things go badly, voters want them fixed. But I see your point: a party can refuse to accept reality, and just wait for their turn to come around again.

Let me point to a silver lining from across the Atlantic: the recent fortunes of the Conservative Party. They've taken the strategy that corresponds with your nightmare in some ways: when they were discredited and out of power, they didn't change their policies. (Granted, they didn't go further to the right, but they didn't moderate either.) They just got a more media-friendly leader, tweaked their PR strategies, and waited for the party in power to run out of steam, excpecting to get it back. And that strategy did work for them, kinda, almost. But they didn't get a majority, because they didn't make a policy sale to the voters. They basically ran as "not the incumbents," which was better this year than running as the incumbent, but not enough to win outright. So the Conservatives are going to adopt new policies after all: the Liberal Democrats' policies.

I'm not claiming that the recent British election will be repeated here. I'm simply pointing out that the Wait-for-the-Robes strategy tends to be disrupted by unexpected events, because voters aren't content with you just being Not the Other Guys. You've got to bring something to the table. The "Tea Party" incarnation of the New Right is wrong if they think that they will eventually be swept to power by an overlooked majority that yearns for the gold standard. But they're also wrong to think that simply waiting and opposing will bring them all the way back to power.