dagblog - Comments for "The Big Thaw: How Russia Could Dominate A Warming World"

Yes indeedy, that's well

PeraclesPlease — Fri, 18 Dec 2020 14:54:43 +0000

Yes indeedy, that's well documented and utterly non-controversial.

I should have been more

Orion — Fri, 18 Dec 2020 13:56:38 +0000

In reply to ??? Not sure what migration

I should have been more specific - Russian power vacuums don't necessarily mean migration, but they usually result in a pretty brutal reshuffling of the cultures that exist in Eurasia.

??? Not sure what migration

PeraclesPlease — Fri, 18 Dec 2020 13:33:00 +0000

In reply to Also consider that Putin has

??? Not sure what migration and regimes you're hinting at - 1917-18, 1930's, 1953, 1964, 1981, 1990, 2000? I don't see any movement with mostly Turkic ex-Siviet countries - they will be satellites, but certainly not merge populations (not do they have reason to - they have lots of space, few people, and similar climate to Irkutsk or wherever east. There has been some land/population agreement north of Manchuria, but hardly a whole scale population resettlement. Yeah, the fall of the Year/rise of the Communists was crazed. But Siberia has been the dumping ground for undesirables ever since - hard to turn that into a positive destination.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Way_Back_(2010_film)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr_Jones_(2019_film)

Migration in Russia isn't for the faint of heart.

Also consider that Putin has

Orion — Fri, 18 Dec 2020 13:16:06 +0000

In reply to "Russia" is a big place. The

Also consider that Putin has built a regime essentially around himself and the history that exists when Russian regimes fall. That would be a good opportunity for mass migration.

"Russia" is a big place. The

PeraclesPlease — Fri, 18 Dec 2020 10:50:00 +0000

In reply to Russia became a home for

"Russia" is a big place. The Mongols set up a mafia holding state with the Muscovites around 1230, so never actu@lly lived and reigned there. They did disrupt the areas further south towards the Caspian and tried but failed to gain a foothold in Crimea a hundred years later. It was that period when they *brought* the bubonic plague to the west (whether from Wuhan, dunno), and actively launched diseased bodies into the besieged city of Caffa, from which the refugees spread it to Europe. You can imagine that neither case is a great marketing pitch for "accept lots of Orientals to your territory", even though remnant Tatar and Bashkir autonomous regions still exist southeast towards the Urals, thanks to Lenin mostly.

But yes, it's possible with China's building military might that they could invade Russian territory to annex fields of wheat, though realize thatthe Chinese population will fall by 1/2 by 2100, so what's pressing now won't be pressing then. (Russia's population and might will almost certainly contract by then too).

Russia became a home for

Orion — Fri, 18 Dec 2020 10:22:58 +0000

In reply to I think the bigger question

Russia became a home for Asians once before, during the mongol invasion. That was also a period of climate change.

I think the bigger question

PeraclesPlease — Fri, 18 Dec 2020 03:09:00 +0000

In reply to Russia has a whole lot of

I think the bigger question is what happens post-Putin. He's 68, probably wearing out his welcome post-Trump, will almost certainly be gone by 80 at outside, so within 12 years. I'm pretty sure the Russian people will not thrill to turning the motherland into home for more Asians, such as Chinese. It was one thing to lord over Mongolia and Kazakhstan, another to invite them home.

Additionally, taming the tundra's more about automation and Machine Learning, not adding more people to the plantation mix. And Russia's always been 2 countries, but the European one's not giving up to the Urals so quick. That's just where Russians build their reputation for toughness, not go to live. That got old in the 1800s & early 1900s when they were uneducated uppity aspirational Kulak peasants "taming the countryside". That didn't turn out well.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dekulakization

Russia has a whole lot of

Orion — Fri, 18 Dec 2020 02:44:00 +0000

In reply to Short-lived: half our energy

Russia has a whole lot of open space, though, space that they've wanted filled for some time. It could be very attractive for Asian migrants.

Short-lived: half our energy

PeraclesPlease — Thu, 17 Dec 2020 19:44:00 +0000

In reply to The Big Thaw: How Russia Could Dominate A Warming World

Short-lived: half our energy from renewable sources by 2050. Imagine the change by 2080, as all cars & trucks go electric...

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php

Also, as Russia's tried to hold the EU hostage with natural gas, there will be some hesitancy for countries to place their food resources at Russia's whim.