dagblog - Comments for "Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm forecast! "

Fox News poll of Pennsylvania

artappraiser — Fri, 29 Jul 2022 07:00:14 +0000

In reply to Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm forecast!

Fox News poll of Pennsylvania:

PA-Sen
Fetterman (D) 47
Oz (R) 36

PA-Gov
Shapiro (D) 50
Mastriano (R) 40 https://t.co/7t1skzaWZo
— Shannon Watts (@shannonrwatts) July 29, 2022

Fox News poll of Georgia:

GA-Sen
Warnock (D-inc) 46
Walker (R) 42

GA-Gov
Kemp (R-inc) 47
Abrams (D) 44https://t.co/x704hlTW1B
— Shannon Watts (@shannonrwatts) July 29, 2022

it is clear that some

artappraiser — Tue, 26 Jul 2022 20:24:05 +0000

In reply to Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm forecast!

dupe deleted, see below

it is clear that some

artappraiser — Tue, 26 Jul 2022 20:23:22 +0000

In reply to Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm forecast!

it is clear that some political consultant is suggesting that trolling The Squad about Joe is a good tactic:

Democratic Rep. Cori Bush of Missouri wouldn't commit to supporting President Joe Biden for reelection in 2024 when pressed by a local news station. https://t.co/a3axUQ3bkm
— Newsmax (@newsmax) July 26, 2022

Journalists keep asking Democrats if Biden should run for a second term.

First AOC dodged the question.

Now Cori Bush won't answer it either.

Seems like no one wants Joe Biden around anymore.

Everyone knows he doesn’t stand a chance with his abysmal record of failure.
— Lauren Boebert (@laurenboebert) July 26, 2022

Inaccurate polling is a

artappraiser — Sat, 23 Jul 2022 21:58:22 +0000

In reply to Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm forecast!

Inaccurate polling is a really big deal.

In both 2016 and 2020, Democrats made choices that were clearly wrong ex-post but *at the time* they seemed like good ideas because based on the available information they were cruising to landslide wins. https://t.co/yYWeD1Qlg0
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) July 23, 2022

New @KariLake ad in Arizona:

artappraiser — Sun, 17 Jul 2022 22:10:30 +0000

In reply to I know I should mostly be

New @KariLake ad in Arizona: pic.twitter.com/SiVOVZ1eNr
— Jerry Saltz (@jerrysaltz) July 17, 2022

I know I should mostly be

artappraiser — Sun, 17 Jul 2022 22:02:53 +0000

In reply to Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm forecast!

I know I should mostly be worried about the normalization of violence in American society and our politics, but this is an all-time hall of famer in the category of politicians posing awkwardly with firearms. What a dork. Look at that optic! Is it set to 64x? pic.twitter.com/Yfv14ixVN3
— Andrew Exum (@ExumAM) July 17, 2022

What’s most intriguing about

artappraiser — Sun, 17 Jul 2022 22:00:12 +0000

In reply to Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm forecast!

What’s most intriguing about @MayraFlores2022 is Democrats lack the vocabulary to define or categorize her. They have yet to make sense of what happened in 2016 and what is happening now. She’s deeply flawed, to be sure, but not in the ways her political foes imagine. https://t.co/78Tkp4FQHp
— Peter Savodnik (@petersavodnik) July 17, 2022

As a general matter, if you tell progressives there are Republicans who embrace workers' rights and legal immigration, they assume that's a pose. They do not grasp that a paradigm shift has taken place on the right.
— Peter Savodnik (@petersavodnik) July 17, 2022

Biden got a lot of COVID

artappraiser — Sun, 17 Jul 2022 18:00:55 +0000

In reply to Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm forecast!

Biden got a lot of COVID relief, an infrastructure bill, a gun bill, and had a progressive Supreme Court justice confirmed and didn't have too many problems with his cabinet nominations. All with a 50-50 Senate. The narrative about how his legislative agenda failed is dumb. https://t.co/nFwOJSVxZg
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 16, 2022

p.s. there is some evidence

artappraiser — Sat, 16 Jul 2022 04:26:24 +0000

In reply to I just found out about this.

p.s. there is some evidence on her Twitter page that she doth protest too much that she's not in it for the celebrity as he accuses; this is pinned at the top:

I’m thrilled to share the cover of my forthcoming memoir, THE FORERUNNER, out 10.4.22 from @aaknopf!

Pre-order your copy here: https://t.co/iEWeZjkOS6 pic.twitter.com/ryJRXmG3hK
— Cori Bush (@CoriBush) June 23, 2022

I just found out about this.

artappraiser — Sat, 16 Jul 2022 04:21:55 +0000

In reply to Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm forecast!

I just found out about this. Yay, GO STEVE ROBERTS! Helping to hopefully see one less bullshit woke DSA member among Dems in The House being as unhelpful to the president as they can (not to mention her habit of being as racially divisive as she can

Hey everyone, @CoriBush is in a tight primary race against a very corporate democrat. We already have plenty of them, and there is only one Cori Bush fighting for the rest of us. Let’s all chip in and send her some funding love.https://t.co/7KJzf0iG5E
— Mark Ruffalo (@MarkRuffalo) July 15, 2022

Missouri state Sen. Steve Roberts is running for Cori Bush’s congressional seat

St. Louis Public Radio | By Sarah Kellogg Published March 29, 2022 at 12:25 PM CDT

Democratic state Sen. Steve Roberts, D-St. Louis, is challenging Congresswoman Cori Bush, D-St. Louis County, to represent Missouri’s 1st Congressional District.

Roberts submitted his paperwork on Monday, the second-to-last day of candidate filing to run for the seat.

Roberts said he didn’t intend to run for Congress when he was initially elected to serve in the Missouri Senate, but Bush’s actions changed that.

“It's become pretty apparent to me that Congresswoman Cori Bush is not interested in serving as a U.S. Representative,” Roberts said.

He added: “She made a comment that she wanted to defund the Pentagon. The NGA (National Geospatial Intelligence Agency) is a multimillion-dollar project that's in my Senate seat, in the 1st Congressional [District], those folks don't have a voice.”

In a statement after Roberts’ announcement, Bush’s office said the people of St. Louis have a clear choice in the election.

“Their Congresswoman who loves them and delivered hundreds of millions of dollars to St. Louis, and a host of ego-driven men who seem to think all that Black women leaders do is never good enough,” the written statement said.

Anita Manion, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, said seeing a more establishment candidate isn’t that surprising.

“Representative Bush has made some choices on votes that haven't always sort of toed the Democratic Party line. So, I don't think it's surprising that there would be a challenger in that district,” Manion said.

In the statement Monday announcing the campaign, Roberts’ spokesman Ryan Hawkins spoke against Bush’s voting record, including her vote against President Joe Biden’s infrastructure plan.

Rep. Emanuel Cleaver of Kansas City, Missouri's other Democratic member of Congress, voted yes on the bill, as did outgoing Republican Sen. Roy Blunt.

“Voting NO on so many issues that affect families in the 1st district like fixing our roads and bridges, clean air, clean water, support for Ukraine during a time of war, and Capitol security after January 6, for nothing more than political theater, clearly shows the Congresswoman is only concerned about Twitter likes and seeking the celebrity status,” Hawkins said in a written statement.

In a statement released after she voted against the bill, Bush said a vote for the infrastructure plan jeopardized any leverage on the Build Back Better Act.

"Each and every one of my votes here in D.C. has been in the interest of saving lives. And tonight was no different," Bush said.

Bush first ran for Congress in 2018, losing to longtime incumbent Lacy Clay in the primary. Bush challenged Clay again in 2020 and won before going on to win the seat in the general election. She is running her first reelection campaign.

Manion says Roberts is fashioning himself as a more moderate candidate.

“He's going to be looking for maybe an older voter, a more traditional voter, but I think he's going to have to figure out how to get the enthusiasm to have them turn out in a Democratic primary,” she said.

Manion still believes Bush has the advantage in the primary.

“I think she has a lot of enthusiasm in her base. And that'll be really difficult for Senator Roberts to overcome, particularly in a Democratic primary,” Manion said.

Roberts served in the Missouri House from 2016 through 2020, when he was elected to the Senate. He is currently in his second year as a Missouri state senator.

Before his term in the House, Roberts was accused by fellow freshman lawmaker Cora Faith Walker, who died this month, of drugging and sexually assaulting her. Prosecutors did not press charges against Roberts, and both Walker and Roberts dropped their lawsuits against each other.

Manion says Walker’s recent death has brought more attention to the allegations.

“I think that makes it a more of an uphill battle for him. And particularly when we know that Black women are the core of the Democratic Party in St. Louis and elsewhere. And in a primary election, it's about energy and turnout,” Manion said.

The statement from Bush’s office mentioned Roberts’ assault allegations, saying, “Such men do not belong in public service, much less representing the incredible people of St. Louis in Congress.”

Roberts’ post on Twitter about his candidacy was met mostly with criticism; most replies and interactions to the tweet called for support of Bush or referenced the assault allegations.

“They can try to distract voters from her indefensible voting record by recycling old false stories about me, but I don't think it's gonna work,” Roberts said.

According to candidate filing information, Roberts is the fifth person in the primary other than Bush. Three Republicans have also filed for the race, though the district is considered a safe Democratic seat and is protected by the Voting Rights Act.

As to why he waited until near the end of filing to run, Roberts said he was waiting to see how the 1st Congressional District map was going to turn out.

However, neither Bush nor Roberts know whom exactly they are running to represent, as the Missouri Legislature has yet to pass a congressional redistricting map.

Follow Sarah Kellogg on Twitter: @sarahkkellogg