dagblog - Comments for "[MIDTERMS News & Analysis] Democratic Hopes Rise on Senate Control as Two States Count Votes"

Police may want to fine-tune

PeraclesPlease — Thu, 15 Dec 2022 09:01:55 +0000

In reply to So you're saying "take care

Police may want to fine-tune their anti-crime message

My latest w/ @alicesperi:

An NYPD officer was caught by his own bodycam apparently planting weed in a car. This isn't the first time he’s been caught framing someone.

So many things are infuriating about this incident, so I put together a THREAD: pic.twitter.com/iaAdOkJWux
— Travis Mannon (@TravisMannon) March 18, 2020

this basically says all Dems

artappraiser — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 14:54:29 +0000

In reply to [MIDTERMS News & Analysis] Democratic Hopes Rise on Senate Control as Two States Count Votes

this basically says all Dems would have to do is a little more inclusive centrism and a little more Sister Souljah'ing of lefties (to rid themselves of that branding) and they'd be going gangbusters, better than Biden's win (oh and quit bashing Fox News et.al., quit playing the divisive game - you offer the alternative to that, GET IT?)

Democrats actually did pretty well with rural and Hispanic voters

By Jennifer Rubin @ WashingtonPost.com, Dec. 13

After the 2020 election, pundits often opined that Democrats are in deep trouble with Latinos. And they insisted Democrats’ brand is a killer in rural areas. The 2022 midterms showed something very different.

The moderate think tank Third Way looked at 10 states and categorized counties there as urban, rural or suburban. It found that a flock of Democratic candidates outperformed President Biden’s results from 2020 in rural counties, including Pennsylvania Gov.-elect Josh Shapiro (who improved upon Biden’s 2020 showing by 15.2 points), Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (10.4 points), Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (8.8 points), Pennsylvania Sen.-elect John Fetterman (7.2 points), and Sens. Michael Bennet (Colo.) and Mark Kelly (Ariz.), both of whom beat Biden’s showing by more than 6 points.

In the Kansas gubernatorial race, Third Way reported: “[Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly] outperformed Biden in every Kansas county. Kelly saw an average 22.7-point leftward swing from Biden in 2020 in rural counties, and she had similarly strong swings in urban, suburban, and exurban counties compared to 2020.”

In other words, centrist candidates who made an effort to campaign everywhere scored well with rural voters. Even Tim Ryan, the Democrat who lost Ohio’s Senate race, did nearly five points better than Biden in rural areas. In an appearance at a Third Way event, Ryan counseled, “You have to go where the people are, and that’s why another thing I’ve said is, you can’t be afraid to go on Fox News.” He added: “That’s where people are. That’s where they live. So go on there and make your case.”

It’s an uphill fight for Democrats in some rural areas, but not impossible. “If they don’t think you care, and you don’t show up, you’re just affirming their view,” Ryan said. He added, “People may disagree with you on certain issues, whether it’s being pro-choice or antiabortion or pro-death penalty or whatever your views are on immigration, but if they feel you’re genuinely concerned about how they’re doing economically, they’ll still consider voting for you.”

Democrats don’t necessarily have to win in rural areas to win in a state such as Pennsylvania, Michigan or Georgia, but they do have to keep it close. That’s what winning centrist Democrats did.

When it comes to Latino voters, many in the media were convinced that the 2020 election signaled the beginning of the end of the Democrats’ dominance among Hispanics. It turns out Democrats have a Florida problem, but not so much a Latino problem.

NBC News reports, “In Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado, Latinos have stuck with Democrats, and that has helped power the party’s gains across a region where Latino population growth has exploded.” And Latinos are not a monolithic group: “One analysis by Equis Research, which looks at Latino voting patterns, saw solid support for Democrats in places like Nevada and Arizona. Its analysis also showed that in Philadelphia, Democratic Sen.-elect John Fetterman outperformed Joe Biden’s 2020 results with Latinos.”

Nevada is a particularly illustrative example. The state’s Latina incumbent, Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, frequently engaged with Latino voters, starting early with Spanish-language ads. She won 62 percent of the Latino vote.

The exaggerated media narrative has lacked nuance and context. Among more conservative Latino groups, especially Cuban Americans and Venezuelan Americans, Republicans have improved. But elsewhere, Democrats’ economic message sold well. (Contrary to conventional wisdom, Latino voters are overwhelmingly pro-choice. According to one survey, “74% of Latino registered voters agree that a woman has a right to make her own personal, private decisions about abortion without politicians interfering.”)

The key takeaway: Centrist Democratic candidates can appeal everywhere and among the entire electorate. They managed to flip multiple House seats and beat back MAGA extremists. As Third Way noted: “Successful candidates were able to overcome the baggage of the party brand by distancing themselves from the far left. When asked which party has nominated more extreme candidates this cycle, voters chose Republicans by a seven-point margin (44%-37%). Among swing voters, that margin was twenty points. In key states including Ohio (10 points), New Hampshire (12 points), and Georgia (3 points), moderate candidates significantly outperformed other Democrats on the statewide ballot.”

Candidate quality matters. So does a record of economic accomplishment and a vigorous campaign ready to meet voters where they are (geographically and otherwise). A good candidate with a good record and a good ground game will, all things being equal, beat a flaky candidate with an extreme record — or no record at all — who thinks historic trends will do the work for them.

Democrats should not sit on their laurels. In 2024, tough Senate races in red states such as Ohio, Montana and West Virginia await. And the party is in near-collapse in Florida. But all things considered, the media might want to spend more time figuring out how Republicans are managing to lose so many segments of the electorate. For now, they are the ones who are in “disarray.”

thanks for that

artappraiser — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 12:00:31 +0000

In reply to Had a comment from a native

thanks for that

I've seen convincing arguments that it's often about being supportive of business and capitalism, and that most see Democrats as anti-business. Tho I can't give any links. That makes sense to me, certainly that's the way many Hispanics in the Bronx think. After all, many of them have a family history of coming here for the capitalism, fleeing failed socialism, they start out laboring for others just to get the money to start their own business. Less taxes and paperwork and bureaucracy = good. (Heck, a lot of them start out laboring for cash, no taxes at all.) A lot of immigrants who become citizens think like that in general! They didn't come here for big government, they came here for the capitalism. (A reminder that farm workers are often transient workers, different from citizens.)

yes the youth turnout was

artappraiser — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 11:46:07 +0000

In reply to I have a gut feeling that

yes the youth turnout was better in lots of other states, that's why this drew my attention.

I have a gut feeling that

PeraclesPlease — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 11:29:00 +0000

In reply to The yuds did not show up to

I have a gut feeling that Beto isn't as effective at GOTV as people like to think, but again, no data to back it. Is he too liberal for even the typical Texas youth?
But it seems like the youth vote outside of Texas & Florida was heavily Democrat (to get back to your topic).
Not sure what the special sauce is in the Lone Star state (don't think tequila/mezcal's as popular as before, so have to find another culprit).

Had a comment from a native

PeraclesPlease — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 11:23:00 +0000

In reply to The yuds did not show up to

Had a comment from a native American yesterday, noting (I seemed to confirm) that Hispanics have shifted towards Dems everywhere *except Texas & Florida*. Florida's a weird mix of different Hispanic groups & politics. Texas has Hispanics heavily invested in the economy & I guess Texas-like success - they're 60% of the construction industry, 40% have at least some college & 70% have completed high school. Why that would make them more Republican, Idunno, but our question about how Dems missed the Hispanic wave seems to have 2 curious data points of say 20-30 to screw up the analysis/mess up the conclusions. Even South Texas is heavily Democrat. Florida Cubans are heavily Republican - we knew that - as are Florida South Americans (a lot pulled out of Venezuela recently?). Florida Puerto Ricans are split evenly, which is a bit surprising, but considering it's not 1975 or 1955 anymore, I guess not so much.

Hispanic vote for party by particular demographics/category:

So you're saying "take care

PeraclesPlease — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 11:17:11 +0000

In reply to Meet the Voters Who Fueled

So you're saying "take care of crime" (in NY) or "take care of combatting disinfo tsunami about crime"?
Of course we can always likely do better combatting crime, but it sounds like the (Twitter? Fox? where else?) disinfo's the real prob here. (+ education's likely more of a real prob?)

The yuds did not show up to

artappraiser — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 11:03:23 +0000

In reply to [MIDTERMS News & Analysis] Democratic Hopes Rise on Senate Control as Two States Count Votes

The yuds did not show up to vote in Texas:

"Just 25% of young people (under age 30) in Texas who were registered to vote cast a ballot this year.

About 34% of the same group voted 4 years ago, while 51% of them did in the 2020 presidential election."https://t.co/sLD8eANiua
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) December 12, 2022

Republican flips northern

artappraiser — Sat, 03 Dec 2022 08:53:19 +0000

In reply to [MIDTERMS News & Analysis] Democratic Hopes Rise on Senate Control as Two States Count Votes

Republican flips northern California congressional seat (formerly held by Barbara Lee!!!)

BY BENJAMIN JOHANSEN - @ TheHill.com, 12/02/22 10:36 PM ET

Republican nominee John Duarte is projected to win the race in California’s 13th congressional district, beating his Democratic opponent, state Assemblyman Adam Gray.

The Associated Press called the race at 10:06 p.m. Friday.

Duarte, a farmer and businessman, will take over a seat long held by Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) who was forced to run in the 12th district due to the state’s redistricting.

The district has not elected a Republican since 1974 and Democratic voters outnumber Republicans 42 percent to 24 percent with more than 21 percent identifying with no party preference.

Despite the political party makeup, the race was considered to be one of the more competitive in the country this year and Duarte’s win is one of several seats key to Republicans gaining control of the House.

Duarte, who runs a family-owned nursery in a largely agricultural area of the state, became known in conservative circles for taking on the federal government over water regulations.

Meet the Voters Who Fueled

artappraiser — Mon, 28 Nov 2022 23:42:47 +0000

In reply to [MIDTERMS News & Analysis] Democratic Hopes Rise on Senate Control as Two States Count Votes

Meet the Voters Who Fueled New York’s Seismic Tilt Toward the G.O.P.

Republicans used doomsday-style ads to capitalize on suburban voters’ fear of crime in New York, helping to flip enough seats to capture the House.

By Nicholas Fandos @NYTimes.com, Updated Nov. 28, 2022, 8:49 a.m. ET

GREAT NECK PLAZA, N.Y. — Lynn Frankel still has bouts of nostalgia for her old life, the one before the coronavirus pandemic brought New York City to a standstill and fears about crime began to bubble across this well-to-do suburb. There were dinners in the city with friends, Broadway shows, outings with her children — all an easy train ride away.

But these days if she can help it, Ms. Frankel, 58, does not set foot in the city. She’s seen too many headlines about “a lot of crazy stuff”: flagrant shoplifting, seemingly random acts of violence and hate crimes, which triggered concern about the safety of her daughters, who are Asian American.

Something else has changed, too. Ms. Frankel, a political independent who reviled Donald J. Trump, gladly voted Republican in this month’s midterm elections to endorse the party’s tough-on-crime platform, and punish the “seeming indifference” she ascribes to Democrats like Gov. Kathy Hochul.

“If you don’t feel safe, than it doesn’t matter what all the other issues are,” she said the other day in Great Neck Plaza’s tidy commercial area.

New York and its suburbs may remain among the safest large communities in the country. Yet amid a torrent of doomsday-style advertising and constant media headlines about rising crime and deteriorating public safety, suburban swing voters like Ms. Frankel helped drive a Republican rout that played a decisive role in tipping control of the House.

The attempt to capitalize on upticks in crime may have fallen short for Republicans elsewhere across the nation. But from Long Island to the Lower Hudson Valley, Republicans running predominantly on crime swept five of six suburban congressional seats, including three that President Biden won handily that encompass some of the nation’s most affluent, well-educated commuter towns.

The numbers were stark. New York’s major suburban counties around the city — Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester and Rockland — all shifted between 14 and 20 points to the right, thanks to a surge in Republican turnout and crucial crossover votes from independents and Democrats. Even parts of the city followed the trend, though it remained overwhelmingly blue.

Take the Third Congressional District, a predominantly white and Asian American seat connecting northeast Queens with the North Shore of Long Island that flipped to a Republican, George Santos. Turnout data suggests that Republican enthusiasm almost completely erased Democrats’ large voter registration advantage and flipped some voters, helping Lee Zeldin, the Republican nominee for governor, turn a long-shot bid into the state’s closest race for governor in 30 years.

Other factors accounted for Democrats’ suburban struggles here. Threats to abortion access drove some liberal voters to the polls, but many reliably Democratic Black, Latino and white voters stayed home. Swing voters blamed the party for painful increases in gas and grocery bills. Orthodox Jews furious over local education issues voted for Republicans at unusually high rates. Tactical decisions by Ms. Hochul appear to have hurt her party, too.

But in interviews with strategists from both parties, candidates, and more than three dozen voters across Long Island and Westchester County, it appeared that New York was uniquely primed over the last two years for a suburban revolt over crime and quality of life.[....]