dagblog - Comments for "DelBene House campaign leader"

Mostly they couldn't until

PeraclesPlease — Tue, 03 Jan 2023 15:53:03 +0000

In reply to This is a weird fundraising

Mostly they couldn't until the board switched out GOP appointees.

This is a weird fundraising

artappraiser — Tue, 03 Jan 2023 05:34:34 +0000

In reply to DelBene House campaign leader

This is a weird fundraising email from the Democratic Governors Association. Like, aside from the fact that I’m not sure DeJoy is as bad as everyone worried in 2020, it’s Biden appointees who haven’t fired him pic.twitter.com/wXV9yYeoxB
— Ben Dreyfuss (@bendreyfuss) January 2, 2023

Meanwhile Dem Senators do

artappraiser — Mon, 02 Jan 2023 03:43:54 +0000

In reply to DelBene House campaign leader

Meanwhile Dem Senators do their own political brand analysis :

My Communications Director is on vacay ask me anything.
— Brian Schatz (@brianschatz) December 23, 2022

In the epic battles of @CoryBooker v @SenatorTester who do you think takes it?
— Corey Cantor (@CoreyBCantor) December 23, 2022

I think Tester because he is more mean
— Brian Schatz (@brianschatz) December 23, 2022

I’ve always said Schatz is one of the smarter people I’ve served with. https://t.co/8vSSHJ13MO
— Senator Jon Tester (@SenatorTester) December 23, 2022

One thing I thought of here

PeraclesPlease — Tue, 27 Dec 2022 19:22:00 +0000

In reply to "Heck, look at Liz Cheney,

One thing I thought of here is that success tends to bring more success - wannabes, success hanger-ons, people who want to be close to the trending light. So it may be too easy to attribute a stronger support or distaste for something that's trending up or down.
Also,as per the Cassidy Hutchinson piece, the Republicans seem to be better at holding people hostages - not necessarily this using-the-same-attorney bit, but exacting revenge on those who don't parrot the lne. (that many people think The Squad & Bernie & similar followers are too woke, too dogmatic is a sign that the Democrats allow more leeway on this - it took 5 years for GOP pols voters to object to Trump and not be excommunicated. - even a long times after Jan6 when for 1 day it seemed like they might come to their senses. Trump-led purges of impure conservatives throughout government were met with high approval. Anything less is "Deep State".)

Biden Approval Rating Rises As Democrats Score Historic Winshttps://t.co/kwwzDyEspY
— Bipartisan Report (@Bipartisanism) December 26, 2022

"Heck, look at Liz Cheney,

PeraclesPlease — Mon, 26 Dec 2022 23:38:00 +0000

In reply to also I think a lot of your

"Heck, look at Liz Cheney, she's one of those who voted for Dems in the last election. Do you think she's gonna tolerate 'The Squad' types any better than Trumpies?"
That's so weird - right now Cheney has to prove she can hold any power whatsoever - she lost her House seat as the GOP takes over. She can't even caucus with the Dems. Maybe Biden will give her an admin slot, but otherwise she's drifting for the moment - so yeah, The Squad has more power than her at the moment despite doing a good job with the Jan6 Committee.
The Jimmy Carter thing is what's happened several times - the Dems fix Republicans' problems with the economy, and then Republicans get in office and blow it up again. In this case, Carter and Volker(?) put the screws on the economy to tamp down inflation. (remember Ford's "Whip Inflation Now", ironically flipped over to "No Instant Miracles"?). So by the end of Reagan's honeymoon, Carter's adult-on-the-economy was taking effect so Reagan could do his cuts (not that lowering from 98% tax rate to reasonable wasn't needed, but Reagan got a lot of fame off Carter's sacrifices.
But let's talk the shift from strong Southern Dems (Connolly/Barbara Jordan, Carter, Clinton, Gore...) to what happened since Bush. Sister Souljah ain't the whole story. How Republicans handled the fullcourt press for the Iraq War, the don't-accept-defeat-or-responsibility after the 2008 crash, etc. Winning despite losing, that new culture war on a lot more fronts. Lined up with the rise of stronger social media (not just internet) and the Fox News/Sinclair behemoths and never-ending campaigns. The inclination to just say anything no matter how detached from truth and easily disproved grew and grew. It's very hard to appeal to "values" when the values are often rigged, subject to propaganda campaigns, etc.
It's very funny to me that you think Im in awe of "GOTV" as solution - I'm more amazed that Biden lucked out despite doing a shitty job cutting through the propaganda tsunami to get elected - precisely because the pandemic rewarded being off the trail and staying quiet, while Trump made enough of an idiot of himself. After Abbott's shitty dropping off refugees to Kamala's door on Christmas Eve we're not through with stupid foolish moves from the right, but still, they have the advantage - AND I DON'T KNOW HOW TO EFFECTIVELY COMBAT IT. GOTV partially worked with a strong Southern belt, where getting Blacks to the polls could mean victory. Now except for Georgia it means "only" losing by 20 points. Elsewhere, yes, there's a tradeoff between hard Lincoln Project ads that tweak the politicians' tails, but can also piss off their supporters, whereas a version of "let them make fools of themselves" *might* work, but if they control the airwaves through Fox and CNN (infatuated with Trump in 2016, and now trying to tilt conservative), and talk radio - even Maggie Haberman/NYT plus WaPo have been invaluable allies to the GOP on killing bad news - it can be tough getting news of Republican failure to the masses. Good news like a number of Bidens' initiatives & successes travels slow, and gets eaten up like Hemingway's marlin before it gets back to port. So no, announcing great ideas that quickly get slathered in lies & disinfo isn't a guaranteed way to attract the "rubes", the open-minded Americans (if such actually exist, or just are triggered by specific issues which may be hard for Republicans to completely lock in)

PS - not just blacks such as

PeraclesPlease — Mon, 26 Dec 2022 22:54:15 +0000

In reply to Hmm, I was talking about 2016

PS - not just blacks such as BLM's scamming leaders -
a lot of corruption from all quarters.
The easy accusations/identity politics may be shifting as well.
The photo ops after each criminal discovery might not tell us as much.

NYU ex-director of finance indicted on accusations she defrauded the university of $3.4M that was supposed to fund women and minority-owned businesses

Accused of using $600K in funds to renovate her home, dropping $80K on a swimming pool https://t.co/84Nq8W3NSG pic.twitter.com/h2UU9shse9
— philip lewis (@Phil_Lewis_) December 25, 2022

Hmm, I was talking about 2016

PeraclesPlease — Mon, 26 Dec 2022 22:50:42 +0000

In reply to also I think a lot of your

Hmm, I was talking about 2016, when in specific areas a lack of effective GOTV (partly or hugely fault of DNC) hurt the Democratic party. 2018 there was a major push from women for GOTV that seemed to greatly push the # of women in office. Now obviously it's not just GOTV that gets women to run for office - there were a lot of pissed off women, so there has to be a message that makes the voters think that these new candidates will be better than the old schmucks, which largely happened. 2020 was a mess due to Covid preventing a lot of personal meetups. But in 2022 some states like Georgia seemed to greatly benefit on the Dem side from strong GOTV efforts, as well as presumably messaging that brought in independents & disaffected Republicans. Still, the GOP took the House, and as Walker's candidacy shows - much like Trump's run et al - that the support has been highly built in, no matter how outrageous the actions, the idea of flipping to the other party is often seen as treason, but with Trump starting to fade, possibly there's more room for persuading those disgusted with their party (on either side?).
We had this discussion about Hispanics, but it turned out that Hispanics were only really recruitable on the right in Florida and non-border Texas - not so much in other states. Again, Hillary & the Dems seemed to do a fairly poor job in GOTV in Hispanic regions (except in loony GOP-Cuban Miami, kind of a lost cause), so I'm not sure where discredited. Part of why Biden & others did well might have been the Lincoln Project which said stuff that liberals couldn't get away with saying, but some of the evidence seemed to say these ads were better at motivating the Dems than actually switching Republicans & Independents. Of coure there were voters discouraged in 2016 who just sat the thing out - not willing to "hold their nose". Some of these were far left, but some were more centrist, but felt Hillary was too much scandal and baggage. And then there was the issue that her actual policy messages couldn't cut through all the email-email-email noise ($20 billion for W. Virginia job revamp?), whereas in 2020 Biden did well by largely staying quiet and letting Trump drive away more voters.
Anecdotally it seems Gen-Z may be heavily Dem/liberal or at least not willing to tolerate the Abbott-DeSantis bullshit, which may not be pivotal in 2024, but by 2028/30/32 could shift things - IF a number of other things happen, like effective governing, cutting through the Fox bubble, handling new bots & AI/ChatDPT & deep fake disinfo, and other shifts we haven't even thought about yet. Presumably the Russian-Ukraine war can have some fallout and shifts before 2024. While everyone's looking at DeSantis, I'm not completely convinced he'll be that strong Feb 2024 when voters start to actually pay attention - we saw a whole field of "promising" Republicans easily wiped out in Jan/Feb 2016 - including Cruz, Rubio, Jeb Bush, etc. Part of it was "messaging", part of it was what Steve Jobs did with "Think Different' - don't tell them what you're gong to sell them & how good it runs - tell them who you are, your values, how you represent their future. And there people often ignored the negatives or the contradictions - they bought the personality, the promise. Somewhat similar to Obama, who became a Rorschach test for voters, largely in a positive way - where 2 supporters could think he held 2 opposing views on an issue. Great if you can manage it.
Whether this is the new normal or not, we've got some disturbing shit coming up too - "Lizard people" is now an accepted part of the discourse, just like fabulations like the Dominion Voting machines, and whatever else. Hard to predict that effect.

OMG—“The virus is man-made… it doesn’t exist”… but “Obama and Hillary made the virus”… this poor kid with a QANON father.

I’m just so sad for this world…

HT @Phil_Lewis_ pic.twitter.com/AUCENMPZu0
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) December 22, 2022

also I think a lot of your

artappraiser — Mon, 26 Dec 2022 22:02:54 +0000

In reply to No I just think you're

also I think a lot of your GenX compadres are reaching the age and with the workload and responsiblities that they are thinking like this when they vote for state and local government

... The exact moment when a GEN X realizes the correlation between voting Democrat and paying taxes... pic.twitter.com/QmcZOkPxIi
— Pat Riot (@Riot2Pat) December 17, 2022

hence, DeSantis Dems

(like my young end of the boomer gen brother, who btw has totally won over my GenX slacker brother after he became thoroughly disgusted discovering the Woke agenda after the Geo. Floyd protests and rising Black crime in Wisconsin--the GenXer a big Hillary supporter in 2016, has been totally converted to supporting DeSantis type candidates, and now thinks CNN and NYTimes is woke propaganda)

Then there's millennials like this guy that I got to know from Twitter. Big supporter of lefty candidates as far as affordable housing activism in Manhattan, but also a PHD history student who gambled big on Gamestop rally and then crypto and NFT's (clearly such capitalist gambling is the way he pays for expenses so he can spend time on lefty housing activism);

Will this force a reckoning about the fiscal responsibility of NYC cultural institutions during a New Gilded Age?

Meanwhile, we are planning to open an ostentatious LM "Performing Arts Center" named after a Trump donor, built with hundreds of millions of gov. funds and assets. https://t.co/eYmy6WmDYS
— Todd Fine (@tfine) December 26, 2022

Fiscal problems at the Met Opera should raise questions about why the NYC elite are funneling hundreds of millions of dollars of private and government funds to a new @ThePerelmanWTC Performing Arts Center in Lower Manhattan.
— Todd Fine (@tfine) December 26, 2022

I think the old coalitions and old nostrums about party ID just aren't operative anymore! It's a new world, really new, really changed. Heck, look at Liz Cheney, she's one of those who voted for Dems in the last election. Do you think she's gonna tolerate 'The Squad' types any better than Trumpies?

For one thing, with inflation and high debt worldwide, and nationalism in many places, stage is being set for a repeat rejection of Jimmy Carter types for Ronnie types. (A reminder that Reagan won with the help of new demographic - 'Reagan Dems")

No I just think you're

artappraiser — Mon, 26 Dec 2022 19:22:23 +0000

In reply to I think I'm triggering you.

No I just think you're reading the whole thing wrong, you have a very partisan Dem outlook/analysis that is like a decade old and seems to me, so over. Major points to see in the last election: the important voters will split ticket vote if they deem it necessary (and they are not proactive on social media except seeing divisive the spinner activists are and not liking it, so it gives a false impression) and

GOTV has been revealed to not matter much at all nationally. Despite being lauded in the past as 'the answer', it is NOT. Many presumed Dems happen to not always vote Dem even when the preacher charters a bus to take them to the polls, go figure.

Merry Xmas and Happy New Year backatcha.

I think I'm triggering you.

PeraclesPlease — Sun, 25 Dec 2022 19:02:40 +0000

In reply to Meeting in the middle always

I think I'm triggering you. Hillary had a lot of issues - i think GOTV was one (i recall what would have been traditional last minute pushes suffering) but certainly it wasn't the only problem. Merry Xmas