dagblog - Comments for "When predictions don't meet the hype"

Goodbye to Více

PeraclesPlease — Wed, 03 May 2023 09:34:57 +0000

In reply to When predictions don't meet the hype

Goodbye to Více

"The future of news was young and online, and there was no going back ... like Isis, Vice wrongly thought it could take on the giants and win."

poignant Vice News eulogy from @arisroussinos. BuzzFeed was also like this except my business cards said LOLhttps://t.co/tNDuqI6L3I
— max seddon (@maxseddon) May 3, 2023

Global auto sales 76m, EVs

PeraclesPlease — Thu, 05 Jan 2023 07:13:13 +0000

In reply to big oil not declining soon:

Global auto sales 76m, EVs max 5m. (BYD passed Tesla with 1.9m global, Tesla )

Those 70m gas & hybrids have at least a 10yr life, even tho 60% of cars ""entering China's roads" in 2025 should be EVs (so numbers we see in Jan 2026, but for domestic consumption).

COVID has hit China hard, so output, new car demand (and economy over luxury) and other factors will affect that growth.

Meanwhile i don't know that electric charging infrastructure has evolved anywhere to support huge growth. EU had 375k charging stations in 2021, France & Germany adding 600 per wk, say total is 1200/wk when est demand needs 6000 stations per wk to hit 3.5m by 2030. This will make EU EV adoption unequal.

3 new BYD Models coming to the EU have 260-320 mile range (tho declines the more highway mileage in the mix). Winter range is 15-20% lower, which also affects suitability for northern countries.

big oil not declining soon:

artappraiser — Thu, 05 Jan 2023 05:42:27 +0000

In reply to When predictions don't meet the hype

big oil not declining soon:

Exxon's snapshot of its fourth quarter operating earnings indicates it will post a record $58 billion (with a B) annual profit, reports Reuters' @SabrinaValle. That means it will have earned more than $6.6 million for every hour of every day last year. https://t.co/VoOMcBBZXa
— Gary McWilliams (@CarMcWilliams) January 5, 2023

BYD is the most undervalued

PeraclesPlease — Wed, 04 Jan 2023 18:44:23 +0000

In reply to When predictions don't meet the hype

BYD is the most undervalued public company.
BYD is the world's most vertically integrated company.
*A lot* has to go wrong for BYD to not be the world's largest company. https://t.co/4zLDkdTtjo
— Taylor Ogan (@TaylorOgan) January 4, 2023

culture war 2023 prediction

artappraiser — Mon, 02 Jan 2023 03:19:48 +0000

In reply to When predictions don't meet the hype

culture war 2023 prediction thread (plz contribute your own)
— Meme Gene (@pseudnonymus) December 31, 2022

Nate Silver used to be pretty

PeraclesPlease — Thu, 29 Dec 2022 07:45:54 +0000

In reply to Yglesias on topic as far as

Nate Silver used to be pretty good at this - pointing out Bayesian buckets of likelihood, defining for us just how uncertain some races were rather than trying to pick just winners. If I say Biden will win, it's not as impressive as saying he'll win by 5% and be right, which is at as impressive as cataloguing the possibelle factors by small frequency range and having my pick correctly fall within that scenario (if the turnout for these 3 groups is this much, if the weather is X, if there arllis a candidate-leaning October Surprise of X magnitude... Or other ways of pitching it)

Yglesias on topic as far as

artappraiser — Thu, 29 Dec 2022 05:27:08 +0000

In reply to When predictions don't meet the hype

Yglesias on topic as far as elections are concerned:

My predicting got better in my second year of doing it, but I was still systematically overconfident in a way I’m going to try to fix.

Wish more columnists would try this game — it is difficult and humbling.https://t.co/lagm4mOAIH pic.twitter.com/4xQzQpZLqS
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) December 28, 2022

Talking about degrees of uncertainty is hard and tends to annoy people https://t.co/lagm4mO2T9 pic.twitter.com/L7uC7vz39n
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) December 28, 2022

This prediction came true:

PeraclesPlease — Thu, 29 Dec 2022 04:18:56 +0000

In reply to When predictions don't meet the hype

This prediction came true:

https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/28/23428132/elon-musk-twitter-acquisiti...

More bonus social media / congressional navel-scratching analysis

https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/26/17286232/congress-house-judiciary-hea...

Esp if no penalty for it.

PeraclesPlease — Wed, 28 Dec 2022 06:59:47 +0000

In reply to A thing Trump knows how to do

Esp if no penalty for it.

Putin knows that:

https://t.co/0v55idVlId pic.twitter.com/vRoAGXt893
— mariana Z (@mariana057) December 28, 2022

A thing Trump knows how to do

artappraiser — Wed, 28 Dec 2022 04:41:07 +0000

In reply to When predictions don't meet the hype

A thing Trump knows how to do well

Santos is spiraling in a way guaranteed to keep him in the news. His story is not believable, but he keeps committing to it in the public media, which draws more journalists into the hunt, which forces him into more mendacity, which leads to more coverage.https://t.co/YVf8em8ZBr
— Jay Rosen (@jayrosen_nyu) December 28, 2022

And that's actually not a new thing in 'P.R.': There is no such thing as bad publicity