Speaking of predictions,

Deadman — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 18:12:21 +0000

In reply to Predictions ... Revisiting old ones and making new ones

Speaking of predictions, these are great! mine cant end up being as bad as these, can they?

I commend your honesty, but

Michael Wolraich — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 19:22:35 +0000

In reply to Predictions ... Revisiting old ones and making new ones

I commend your honesty, but if you want to build a reputation as a predictor, you should do it Nostradamus style: make a shotgun barrel for full of vague predictions and then crow about the ones that can be interpreted as correct.

For my predictions, I'll reiterate the 2009-relevant ones from my End of an Era post, none of which are particularly bold:

Obama will create a new technocracy - focusing on pragmatism over idealogy. There will be continued complaints from the left, but they will remain muted as he delivers competent and generally popular government.
Obama will seduce moderate and non-partisan Republicans from Snowe to McCain to vote with him on a number of compromise bills. Right wingers, by contrast, will grow increasingly bitter. The dividision within the Republican party will increase, especially before the midterms in 2010.
Race politics will diminish. I agree that class politics will replace it but in the long term, not in 2009, as Obama's policies will have broad appeal. One other inhibiting factor is the lack of a clear populist party. Democrats are fiscally populist, while Republicans are socially populist, so class division will occur intraparty rather than between parties.
There will be a lot of China-is-kicking-our-ass-we're-not-a-superpower-anymore pessimism in 2009 which will dissipate after we recover economically.
Dumpster-chic is dead. People without money will dress as if they have it instead of people with money dressing as they if they don't.
We're due for another round of angry thrash and escapist dance music, which will flourish in the recession. The ailing music industry will shudder and splinter as niche labels outpace the majors.
The Tribune Company has declared bankruptcy since I predicted struggle and consolidation among the big papers. Expect more of the same in 2009. (Acanuck already corrected me that the small town papers will do fine.)

As for Obama becoming President, I'll up the ante by predicting the exact date on which it will occur: January 20th.

And on the subject of accuracy, I only made two predictions in 2008 and hit them both:

In February, I predicted that McCain would run a crappy general election campaign.
In early May, when it seemed as if the Democratic primary race would last through June, I predicted that the IN-NC primaries would mark the end of Clinton's perceived chances.

Of course, I've probably repressed the ones I got wrong.

dagblog - Comments for "Predictions ... Revisiting old ones and making new ones"

Speaking of predictions,

I commend your honesty, but