dagblog - Comments for "Hillary didn't really say that, did she?"

Folks. Hillary will not stop

new10 — Tue, 20 May 2008 04:40:08 +0000

In reply to Hillary didn't really say that, did she?

Folks. Hillary will not stop before the convention in August. Every single super could come out in favor of Obama after June 3rd and Hillary will still take her fight to the convention.

Because none of the delegate votes are officially tallied until the convention, Hillary will go all out to flip them at there. She will also try to get FL and MI counted there.

These intentions will become absolutely clear if she does not immediately concede after the final primary on June 3rd.

The RBC meeting won't matter

Elizabeth2 — Tue, 20 May 2008 01:07:59 +0000

In reply to Hillary didn't really say that, did she?

The RBC meeting won't matter whatever happens. If MI and FL don't count, he reaches majority of pledged delegates tomorrow. If MI and FL are counted -- EVEN IF they are counted per HRC's proposal -- then Obama reaches the majority of the pledged delegates on June 1.

1599 Current
18 KY (assuming 65%/35% Clinton)
28 OR (47%/53% Obama)
1645 as of May 20
If MI and FL are not counted, 1628 is majority.

55 MI (73del Clinton, 55 del Obama)
67 FL (105del Clinton, 67del Obama)
1767 as of May 31

19 PR (65%/35% Clinton)
1786 as of June 1
If MI and FL are counted, 1784 is majority.

9 MT (45%/55% Obama)
8 SD (45%/55% Obama)
1803 as of June 3

To clinch, if MI & FL are counted, it will take 2209 delegates total. Obama's 1803 pledged delegates plus, as of this morning, 300.5 SDs = 2103.5. He would need 105.5 of the remaining 268 uncommitted SDs to win the nomination. (Also, the estimates above are conservative, so every additional delegate he gets in the contests means one less SD is needed. And every Edwards delegate he gets also reduces the number of SDs needed.)

Using the same estimates, Clinton would have 1730 pledged delegates at the end of the contests and she has 279 SDs = 2009. She would have to get 200 of the remaining 268 SDs to win ... AND those 200 would have to be willing to reverse the majority of the pledged delegates. Not going to happen - not this year.

VERY WORST CASE: If Clinton people could convince the RBC to give Obama *no* delegates from Michigan, his totals are then 55 less. Still, at the end of the contests, he would have more pledged delegates (plus more states, plus more popular vote) than she would, and would have to get only 160.5 of the remaining SDs. (Maybe less if he picked up some of Edwards') She would be behind in pledged delegates (and states, and popular vote) and still need 200 SDs. And no one is even seriously arguing that he should get no Michigan delegates while she picks up 73: 44% of the Michigan voters voted "NOT Hillary".

Not gonna happen. There is a

57andFemale — Tue, 20 May 2008 00:37:04 +0000

In reply to Hillary didn't really say that, did she?

Not gonna happen. There is a plurality of Obama supporters and "uncommitted" on the Committee. Even with that being said, AP reported last week that this is, after all, the Rules Committee, and they're not going to give MI and FL everything, with no penalty. It's just not going to happen.

That's what Brazile told CNN.

acanuck — Tue, 20 May 2008 00:05:02 +0000

In reply to Hillary didn't really say that, did she?

That's what Brazile told CNN.

Supposedly if Obama reaches

jsfox — Mon, 19 May 2008 23:59:25 +0000

In reply to Hillary didn't really say that, did she?

Supposedly if Obama reaches 2025 before the meeting the meeting won't matter. I believe this is according to Donna Bazile.

Someone with better info can either confirm or let me know if I am full of it :)

Doesn't matter - Hillary's

Jonze — Mon, 19 May 2008 23:49:30 +0000

In reply to Hillary didn't really say that, did she?

Doesn't matter - Hillary's new goal line is 2210. She's going to try and pull a fast one with the RBC.

I wonder if there might be a

Hoo Hussein Hah — Mon, 19 May 2008 23:41:22 +0000

In reply to Hillary didn't really say that, did she?

I wonder if there might be a superdel deluge after Oregon that would make up the difference to take Obama to 2,025 before the meeting.

She believes she has an ace

Jonze — Mon, 19 May 2008 23:32:08 +0000

In reply to Hillary didn't really say that, did she?

She believes she has an ace up her sleeve - the RBC meeting on May 31st. She probably and that body filled with Clintonites that will force through her plan to seat both Michigan and Florida.