yes authoritarian regimes may

Deadman — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 08:54:06 +0000

In reply to I've brought up the spectre

yes authoritarian regimes may dig in when faced with a tiananmen-style rebellion, but in many cases that just hastens their ultimate demise. china has had the rather fortunate scenario of a booming economy to help keep the Party in power, but i still believe the students at Tiananmen sparked a the first flint of a fire that will eventually bring democracy to China - it may just take a long time to really burn.

as far as the election is concerned, the evidence sure points to something fishy happening. and i don't think the beyond a reasonable doubt is necessarily the measurement that will matter here.

and i dont see the bending over backwards you see by the Iranian authorities - the initial 'this was a divine assessment' no investigation decree from the ayatollah, the shutting down of Internet cafes and popular social Web sites, the rather brutal scenes that people in Iran are distributing throughout the world.

I've brought up the spectre

acanuck — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 03:54:27 +0000

In reply to The Iran riots ... pictures

I've brought up the spectre of Tiananmen as something no-one should wish for. True, brutal repression creates martyrs, but it also gives the authoritarians a rationale for digging in. And I don't see Mousavi's claim that the election was stolen as proved beyond a reasonable doubt.

We've got our first acknowledged death of a protester, but it's worth noting this didn't occur at Mousavi's rally. AP says that as the rally broke up, some protesters tried to set fire to a Basiji (pro-govt. militia) base, and to storm its gates. People on its roof opened fire. Tragic, but not necessarily evidence of a heavy-handed crackdown. In fact, after refusing permission for the Mousavi rally, police made no attempt to intervene as the candidate addressed the crowd.

If indeed Ahmadinejad won the election fair and square (admittedly under rules we would consider stacked for the incumbent), I would suggest Iranian authorities are bending over backwards to defuse tensions. If you think the election was brazenly stolen, of course, you'll be convinced they are just covering their asses.

As I said at length downthread, I'm not convinced that Mousavi -- despite his certainty -- actually won the election. And if he did not, his appeal of the result SHOULD fail. Much as I'd prefer to deal with him, rather than Ahmadinejad, over the next four years.

dagblog - Comments for "The Iran riots ... pictures"

yes authoritarian regimes may

I've brought up the spectre