dagblog - Comments for "Camoflation 2"

Frankly the stag is so bad

Donal — Tue, 16 Nov 2010 02:17:25 +0000

Frankly the stag is so bad now that it hardly matters which flation goes along with it. Inflation will cost you the little money you have, deflation will keep you out of work.

Too bad I can't send my stepson - he's a great tiler and faux-finish painter.

Thanks for getting into

artappraiser — Tue, 16 Nov 2010 02:10:46 +0000

In reply to The construction labor in NYC

Thanks for getting into that.

I want to take advantage of commenting again to clarify.

Mainly I was getting into all of that because it seems like in many locales, there are neither signs of clear deflation nor inflation, but a kind of waiting game in troubled times. And the high national unemployment rate means for uncertaintly for anyone It strikes me even more when I see Donal come up with all these posts searching for the correct analytic title and terms to describe what's happening. And then lots of people saying: no, Donal, that's wrong, it's the opposite.

P.S. Meantime my tiler (a legal Mexican immigrant) hasn't called me back, as he promised to do by 7pm EST, to tell me if he decided that he's coming to finish his work at my place tomorrow. He's stringing me along, said he would confirm, but apparently found something better to do and doesn't think my schedule is important. He's done this several times. I have to call him and ask 3 times if he's coming, he decides at the last minute. No lectures, please, I know this is an anecdotal and means little in the big scheme of things. But seems to me that there were a lot more "hungry" handyman and day laborers available around my parts of the woods a year or so ago, not so much anymore. And my brother's stories of not having seen much improvement on the availability front (he's employing a ton more than me on a regular basis,) just hit home. BTW, I am willing to pay going rates. Just not cash, and many seem to expect cash for small jobs. To me, several grand at $30 to $80 per hour depending upon the skill is not small--it hurts to come up with it. Yet all those who have worked for me, they clearly think it's small and do not seem grateful for the work, rather, they seem to think they are doing me a favor. Actually, I have fear of offending them, have to say thank you hundreds of times and have to fear asking them questions lest they think I am a problem client. It's just that my experiences here in the Bronx don't match up to the stories from the Great Depression yet. I can live with it, not complaining, just reporting. It actually gives me hope that things are not as bad as I read on blogs...

I don't follow CPI enough,

quinn esq — Tue, 16 Nov 2010 01:38:55 +0000

In reply to I don't think you can reduce

I don't follow CPI enough, but if what you're saying is that the "basket of goods" that hard-up people buy is inflating in price more than the basket bought by richer folks, well... that may be. I don't actually know, though I suspect that somewhere on the CPI site or elsewhere, that's been studied. So I guess I'd just want to see some evidence, marshalled in a systematic manner - where as I feel the last couple of blogs have been chasing a moving target a bit.

And yes, deflation has a lot to do with people not being able to buy, and not being able to - or willing to - go into debt. In short, THAT'S THE PROBLEM. And as prices fall, other businesses lower THEIR prices to compete, and must then reduce their wages, and ultimately, lay offs occur, and so on, as we circle down the drain.

As for QE, it's not my first choice, but with fiscal policy now dead and buried, I'd take as much QE as possible.

And those unlicensed

Donal — Mon, 15 Nov 2010 22:46:04 +0000

In reply to The construction labor in NYC

And those unlicensed tradespeople don't have workmen's comp, so if they get hurt, they either eat the bills or sue the client.

I don't think you can reduce

Donal — Mon, 15 Nov 2010 22:43:16 +0000

In reply to I really wish before people

I don't think you can reduce this to regional differences. You can't take advantage of deflation in the price of cars and gizmos if you're stretched just to put gas in the used car you have and to put food on the table. The suggestion that because other people can means it isn't a problem sounds more like a right-wing argument to me than concern for the ones that can't.

I think what is actually driving the deflation of certain markets is that more and more people don't have the income to keep buying these goodies, and aren't willing to go into predatory debt to keep the merry-go-round spinning. If we could borrow umpty-ump billion to put people to work rebuilding our infrastructure, I'd be all for it. But all I see resulting from the QE is more currency manipulation. I'm not hearing that from the right, I'm hearing it from the left.

The construction labor in NYC

moat — Mon, 15 Nov 2010 22:41:11 +0000

In reply to So many of the effects are

The construction labor in NYC has to be seen through what business structure is providing the work. For instance when you say "master plumber", you are talking about someone who has a license and can file their work with the building department. So that means he or she is a subcontractor bidding jobs in the most brutal environment I have seen in the city.

The people who are getting the most bang for buck from such subcontractors (and the GCs that hire them) are those who provide a volume of work large enough to allow contractors to "keep their house". That means their labor, both in the field and admnistration. A large number of bids are going to firms that are almost paying for the chance to work. Some firms are bidding way below cost to establish a share of future work. So they aren't cutting their prices on the small jobs because it is the only chance they have right now to make up for the losses they are taking on the bigger jobs.

There is a large pool of hungry tradespeople outside that kind of firm who do not have licenses, insurance, etc. They are usually hired by contractors who are willing to go under the table themselves. It is a lot cheaper but for the actual client to use that labor means there is nothing standing behind the work and if anything goes wrong, the client is holding the bag.

I really wish before people

quinn esq — Mon, 15 Nov 2010 21:45:38 +0000

In reply to Camoflation 2

I really wish before people would join in the whole Right-Wing argument that inflation is either occurring or about to occur, that they'd check the likely medicine we're going to get once the diagnosis of "inflation" is agred upon.

Namely.... Higher interest rates, and reduced government spending.

I'm sorry folks, but there are ALWAYS regional differences. ALWAYS.

If the issue is middle/working-class JOB INSECURITY, or an INCOME SQUEEZE for that same group, then let's identify that and see what policies can help it. But to just label it "inflation" because some prices are going up in some places, could easily result in the worst of all possible worlds.

Worst. Namely, underlying deflation... now being driven into a death spiral... by rising interest rates and cuts to government spending and transfers.

Even during the depression of

cmaukonen — Mon, 15 Nov 2010 20:42:03 +0000

In reply to Depends on the part of

Even during the depression of the 30s there were areas that did not feel it very much and Hollywood did some of it's best business then as well. So it depends on where you are.

Depends on the part of

cmaukonen — Mon, 15 Nov 2010 20:30:49 +0000

In reply to So many of the effects are

Depends on the part of Florida you are in. In this part, Orlando area, real estate prices are still through the roof and the trades still get pretty much to dollar. Go north to Ocala or south to Arcadia, not so much. But then not much there of any kind. In NY and Ohio it's the same thing. There are areas that are like noting happened then you go to Youngstown and Warren and it's like the depression of the 1930s.

P.S. In my own regional news,

artappraiser — Mon, 15 Nov 2010 19:41:44 +0000

In reply to So many of the effects are

P.S. In my own regional news, Sunday's Real Estate section

the housing market forecast is basically "eh, all things considered not that bad":

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/07/realestate/07deal1.html?ref=sarah_kershaw

and the cover story was on Bloomberg and developers betting pretty strongly on the future:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/07/realestate/07cov.html

And the projects said to be just completed or planned to be started therein suggests some reasons at least for the attitude of the construction industry here.