dagblog - Comments for "Will Palin and the Tea Party Help the Democrats?"

First off, tea-baggers are

Beetlejuice — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 20:17:42 +0000

In reply to Will Palin and the Tea Party Help the Democrats?

First off, tea-baggers are the gift that keeps on giving...to the GOP, that is. The GOP took them in willingly with promises to fulfill their political whims if they would only vote for their party. Of course the GOP never had the slightest interest in their out-of-the-ballpark beliefs...they just needed the votes to get their candidates elected...purely political. And the tea-baggers were more than willing to cooperate cause they knew their time was a coming. But after Bu$h and the GOPer's let them down, they took matters into their own hands.

What's interesting to note is while some are waging election fights against Democrats, it's the intra-party fights where the most bruises are being delivered. In short, the tea-baggers are fighting for control over the GOP in ways the elite aren't too accustom to. After all, tea-baggers have years of experience at being shoved aside to make way for more important political matters, so they found it was just as easy to turn the tables on the internal power brokers and dictate their terms of engagement. Ever notice how the GOPer political high mucky-mucks steer clear of tea-bagger tentacles?...it's not their fight and is more of a distraction from what's really important to the goals of the Party.

It's safe to say, none of the political big names will consider tea-bagger important unless they need their vote or they find themselves up against one of their selected candidates in the next election.

As for sista Sarah, the best thing to do it let her run with it cause there's only two inevitable outcomes. First, she makes an ass out of herself. Second, the GOP'er's screw the economy up further and unemployment stays in the 9% bracket or higher so the average voters sees no point in electing known candidates...they just close their eyes and let their fingers do the thinking for them and hope their vote for an unknown might make thing turn to the good for a change.

The real problem is the GOPer determination to halt all legislation in Congress to make Obama look bad and paint him as a one term President. That opens Palin's chances of actually running and possibly winning closer to a simple coin toss...50/50.

Since I can still add more comments, take a look at McCain...he's endorsing Palin as if she were the real McCoy and fully capable of waltzing into the White House without a problem. Of course, his end game is payback for the lack of GOPer support during his campaign. And you can sure bet your ass Palin picked up on it. So Palin will mount her quasi-campaign free of the GOPer elite and steal a huge portion of the GOPer block with her.

It's enough to make any GOPer candidate think really hard about running. It would be shameful and painfully embarrassing if the GOPer candidate ends up in 3rd place with less than 10% after all the trouble the GOPers have caused in the last 4 years to humiliate and discredit Obama and Democrats. And it would be shameful and highly embarrassing if Obama doesn't grow a set of cahunas and start governing as if he knew what he was doing cause Palin is riding on a wave of public mistrust in his ability to govern.

It sould be fairly obvious by

cmaukonen — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 15:09:55 +0000

In reply to Are you sure Daniels is

It sould be fairly obvious by now Orlando that a large part of the electorate DO NOT vote with their heads rather they vote with their emotions. And those who make them feel good get the vote and those who don't...don't. As with used car salesman, politicians have to make their constituents feel good. About themselves and their concerns.

Boy you hit the nail on the

Richard Day — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 14:41:53 +0000

In reply to Will Palin and the Tea Party Help the Democrats?

Boy you hit the nail on the head with this one. It will be interesting to see how this all unfolds over the next two years.

That is, it will be fun and interesting if I keep a structural distance from it all.

I think my son's old tv is too big to toss out the window. hahaha

Well, I'm glad someone is

Obey — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 14:09:54 +0000

In reply to Obey, I agree with you that

Well, I'm glad someone is optimistic...

;0)

Obey, I agree with you that

Oxy Mora — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 13:59:40 +0000

In reply to I think approval ratings are

Obey, I agree with you that there is a punishment aspect to the miderm that might not show up in a general. As to the unemployment figure, someone has used a 7.5% figure as a near guarantee of re-election but I don't think 7.5% is possible by late 2012. I definitely think it will be under 10%. There are some good signs in the economy--factory untilization is up in the Chicago region and in Texas. Consumer confidence had a significant rise. I think passage of the unemplolyment benefits is extremely important in not throwing in a downer.

Keep in mind that if no

Atheist — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 13:36:18 +0000

In reply to I still think that the only

Keep in mind that if no candidate gets the majority of electoral votes, the House gets to choose the winner:

http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/usconstitution/a/amend12.htm

That'd be interesting (and scary!) to see unfold. Even though it's majority Republican, surely (hopefully?) several of them would think twice before putting Palin in office!

I know it might be considered

Atheist — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 13:31:44 +0000

In reply to Her voice gets to me too. It

I know it might be considered heresy, but I kinda like her voice, at least when she sticks to such pithy things as "you betcha". It's when she starts inserting her no-pinions that she starts grating on my nerves.

I think the romance is over.

Oxy Mora — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 13:30:11 +0000

In reply to Historical Romances are the

I think the romance is over. This couple needs counseling.

I'm not sure about either

Elusive Trope — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 13:20:52 +0000

In reply to Are you sure Daniels is

I'm not sure about either Daniels or Pence running, but I think they represent the two kinds of candidates that could take on Palin early on: the establishment Republican is who can appeal to the tea party folks and the establishment Republican who can appeal to the moderates. Given where the economy is now and where it could be at best by the time people have to declare, I think a number of Republican hopefuls like these two know this may be their best shot in a long while.

For Pence especially it may represent his real last window of opportunity (if a Repub wins the WH, the next opportunity wouldn't come until 2020 at best). Moreover for someone like Pence and Daniels, they would make mighty fine VP material, definitely handing Indiana to the candidate and not hurting their chances in places like Ohio and Illinois. Given Obama, the candidates won't have to battle each other for who could beat the other one up because they can battle each other over who can beat Obama and the Dems up the most. The lack of bad blood will allow some of the stronger second-place finishers to be in position to be tapped for the VP position.

And while Pence is not the sharpest tool in shed, he is in a political sense, as Homer said, "stupid like a fox."

I think approval ratings are

Obey — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 12:17:25 +0000

In reply to Will Palin and the Tea Party Help the Democrats?

I think approval ratings are overestimated as an index by which to predict elections. The midterms suggest that people don't vote according to some weighing up of comparative pros and cons of candidates. Their voting behavior is determined by whether they think the incumbent deserves to be rewarded with reelection or punished by getting voted out.

The latter is a very different dynamic. People liked the GOP candidates less than dems last month. But they wanted to punish the dems for not doing a good enough job. So looking at Palin's approval ratings is misleading. If Obama is still 'failing' in 2012, he will get voted out, whoever the other guy or gal on the ballot happens to be. That said, I don't think Palin actually wants to be President. She's more likely to be kingmaker, and throw her weight behind someone like Demint.

So my prediction: if unemployment is above 10%, Obama loses. If it is below 10% he wins.