dagblog - Comments for "Showdown in Iran: Ahmadinejad Defies Khamenei"

I like the visual. FYI,

Michael Wolraich — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 12:55:41 +0000

In reply to You'll have noticed, Genghis,

I like the visual. FYI, Ahmadinejad also sacked two ministers who had apparently questioned his loyalty to Khamenei and urged him to drop Mashaei immediately during a heated cabinet meeting.

You'll have noticed, Genghis,

acanuck — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 06:44:59 +0000

In reply to Showdown in Iran: Ahmadinejad Defies Khamenei

You'll have noticed, Genghis, that Meshaei has resigned. So now Ahmadinejad has blinked, which appears to strengthen Khamenei. Will the supreme leader now try to mend fences with Rafsanjani? It's getting to be like one of those three- or four-way Mexican standoff scenes in a spaghetti western: everyone is almost equally vulnerable, so no side can risk pressing their advantage.

This again underlines how

acanuck — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 07:36:00 +0000

In reply to Showdown in Iran: Ahmadinejad Defies Khamenei

This again underlines how little we in the West understand Iranian domestic politics. I alluded to the many divisions within the Islamic republic's establishment in a previous thread, pointing out that Ahmadinejad had crafted a third way between the hard-line conservative and reformist branches of the clerical elite.

While paying lip service to the theocratic revolutionaries of 1979, Ahmadinejad has built a separate, oddly more secular base among leaders of the military and Revolutionary Guard of the Iran-Iraq War. It remains to be seen if he can retain their loyalty while defying Khamenei, but it appears that may be exactly what he's betting on.

He may very well have calculated that the Mousavi-led resistance to his own election was at least in part a rejection of the dominance of the old clerical elite (whether left or right), and that his best path forward is to channel some of that thirst for change behind himself.

The election crisis has weakened all the top players in the Iranian power structure: Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, Rafsanjani. In picking a fight with Khamenei over the appointment of someone apparently more moderate than himself, Ahmadinejad may be asserting his own claim to be top dog. Rafsanjani knows that Mousavi is not going to prevail; is it conceivable that he and Ahmadinejad can come to an accommodation that sidelines the increasingly weak-looking Khamenei? Sure, Rafsanjani is the ultimate wheeler-dealer.

That would leave Mousavi, Karroubi and Larijani more or less out in the cold, unless they buy into the new order of things. But maybe Khamenei steps down, Rafsanjani gets the supreme leader title, Ahmadinejad restores the position of prime minister and gives it to one of those three. The new, more moderate Iranian government cuts the long-awaited grand bargain with the U.S., the Third World War is averted ...

OK, maybe I'm getting a bit ahead of myself. All I'll say for sure is: we live in interesting times.

It's pretty amusing when even

Synthetic Zero — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 22:19:08 +0000

In reply to Showdown in Iran: Ahmadinejad Defies Khamenei

It's pretty amusing when even Ahmadinejad isn't hard line enough for the hard liners.