dagblog - Comments for "Will Iran Be Next?"

I'm sorry if I didn't make it

artappraiser — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 22:50:10 +0000

I'm sorry if I didn't make it clear enough that that part was my personal speculation. There is no quote by him using the word caliphate that I can provide, I was using that term symbolically.

But my speculation is not just made up out of thin air. I have been regularly checking out Iran state media for a decade now, where the Supreme Leader's thoughts and pronouncements not coincidentally reign supreme, and I definitely see a narrative forming recently of a vision of a unified worldwide ummah against the Great Satan rest of the world.

Khamenei in particular seems to interpreting all the recent news as all the Sunni having an "awakening" and finally following the true path of 1979 of the Persians rising up against the Great Satan west. I.E.(my version of what he's been saying): finally, others are seeing our way was the true way; welcome to our vision of the ummah, brothers! oh joy, allah is finally going to get on with uniting the ummah into one world, in the way it was meant to be.

I can't find where I read a more complete translation of Feb. 4 Tehran University sermon, but it's summed up well enough here for general purposes:

Iran's leader hails "Islamic" uprising in Arab world

Feb. 4, 2010

(Reuters) - Iran's supreme leader saluted on Friday what he termed an "Islamic liberation movement" in the Arab world, and advised the people of Egypt and Tunisia to unite around their religion and against the West....
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/04/idINIndia-54663220110204

The theme is still a steady drumbeat that hasn't stopped and is still going on. And my speculation is being reinforced.

Here is the big headline at state news site IRNA right now:

Islamic vigilance caused Egypt uprising: Supreme Leader
Tehran, Feb 16, IRNA -- Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei said the recent popular uprising in Egypt is attributed to Islamic vigilance after so many years of humiliation of the civilized Egyptian nation.

http://www.irna.ir/ENNewsShow.aspx?NID=30250451

Here is the current headline at Ahlul Bayt News Agency:

Imam Khamenei: West fearful of Islamic Revolution

2011/02/16

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei says the West is concerned that the Islamic Revolution is served as a model for the region and the entire world.

(Ahlul Bayt News Agency) - Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei says the West is concerned that the Islamic Revolution is served as a model for the region and the entire world.

“Enemies are making efforts to prevent the Islamic Iran from serving as a model for Muslim nations in the region because public movements will be difficult without a model,” said Ayatollah Khamenei on Wednesday.

The Leader added that the main reason behind the West pressure on the Islamic Republic is that Iran is promoting a model in the region and the globe, IRNA reported.

“After the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, enemies have been making efforts to weaken the Islamic establishment through imposing various sanctions and the eight-year (Iraqi) imposed war, raising human rights issues and assassinating nuclear scientists,” Ayatollah Khamenei noted.

However, their efforts failed and the Islamic Revolution will continue its path of progress day by day, he emphasized....

http://abna.ir/data.asp?lang=3&id=226660

And here is their report of a seminary cleric explaining the Supreme Leader's recent utterances to clerics nationwide:

Prayer leader: "Clerics' play key role in Shia-Sunni unity"

2011/02/16

(Ahlul Bayt News Agency) - Prayer leader defined the important role of clerics in preventing sedition among Muslims, saying that religious figures play a key role in deepening Shia-Sunni unity by highlighting their common issues.

....Pointing to the remarkable fatwa of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Aytollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei he said,"Sacrilege of the Sunni sanctities is Haram (forbidden) from the view of Ayatollah Khamenei. Without doubt the achievement of these sacrileges is nothing but sedition and animosity between Shia and Sunni."

This seminary professor added that, "Preventing difference between Muslims has always been highlighted by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution because this difference ends in nothing but weakening of Muslim nation."

Adding that this was the same reason why late founder of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Rouhollah Khomeini found the birth anniversary of the Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) and named it as the Unity Week in a bid to foil the plots of the arrogant powers and the western enemies of Islam.....

http://abna.ir/data.asp?lang=3&id=226665

All this unity talk hasn't been so popular in the past--sometimes, when politically expedient, Sunni were enemy (especially Al Qaeda types! They were always the enemy, with their sometimes attractive-to-the-unlearned counter-narrative heresy.) Not any more, all of sudden one "Muslim nation" is the message.

The main takeaway to me so far is that I think he really believes what he's been saying. It's one of those vision things, it's not a cynical ploy for domestic reasons. I suspect he genuinely thinks all the Arab uprisings are a sign that the ummah is on a path towards being unified, eventually under one government. And that it is Iran that has shown the way and has been chosen as the favored model. It's not lies for political expediency about the Arab uprisings not just being on Iran's side but following Iran's model, it's sincere belief and excited belief at that.

When I saw the parliament conservatives not just excitedly chanting for the deaths of Moussavi and Karroubi but citing them with the extremely serious label of “corrupts on earth,” it just added to my feeling that there is some serious religious vision stuff going on there. They aren't just the enemies of the Iranian people, now, it's much bigger than that--the ummah is on the path to being unified and they are fighting allah's plans in that regard..

Appraiser, I don't hear

acanuck — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 19:45:50 +0000

In reply to I do buy, from my obsessive

Appraiser, I don't hear Khamenei calling for a caliphate. He's urging Egypt to adopt an Iranian-style Islamic state, but that's much different from a single political authority for all Muslim states.

Sorry, but I think you're

we are stardust — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 19:18:42 +0000

In reply to Nature abhors a vacuum. So

Sorry, but I think you're missing the point, Bettlejuice. The Revolution couldn't have a back-up plan, ready with alternate leadership, a constitution, whatever your 'adult' version might envision, because of one simple fact: it was a confluence of movements, ideals, anger, fear, frustration, economic realities and economic clashes within the Elites of nationalists v. Gamal-crony-capitalists, labor, rural farmers rising against feudalism, hunger, low wages, and TORTURE of political opponents to the regime. It evolved, caught fire, transcended pragmatic differences, even within the military.

Yep; there are sooo many things that can go wrong. One of the sole elements of the side of Democracy is the huge spotlight Al Jazeera has provided (too bad we don't have one here), so maybe, just maybe, when things start to go wrong, the world can help.

But please consider what has happened in the past to those who fought and made plans against this regime: they were imprisoned, executed, and/or were tortured. Some of the activists in the Nile Way were in prison with this man; far more were executed. Please think of that when you go on about 'no plans'. And where the hell, by the way, is Al Baradei? Doing interviews on the Sunday Talking Head Shows.

http://www.newstatesman.com/middle-east/2011/02/egypt-brotherhood-uprising

And by the by, there are plenty of folks who see more light at the end of the hard tunnel than you; Rashid Kahlidi (see interviews on Democracy now!) and many more. I think predicting the worst outcomes just plays into the hands of those who spout Arab Exceptionalism.

Thi9s administration was in the way for many days; now it may be calling the wrong shots in Iran, just to make up for it, and get Iran neutralized, since they have totally failed (their own fault) on having any meaningful negotiations with Iran over nukes (they just had to screw the deal Turkey was working on).

Sorry, but your Stuff finally got my goat.

I'd like to third what Obey

quinn esq — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 18:14:34 +0000

In reply to I second Obey's "spot on."

I'd like to third what Obey said.

Obviously, however, Genghis' second is laughably wrong.

Nature abhors a vacuum. So

Beetlejuice — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 17:12:29 +0000

In reply to Will Iran Be Next?

Nature abhors a vacuum. So too does politics. Removal of Mubarak in Egypt created a vacuum so something is going to get sucked in to fill the void quickly. There's an extremely good chance the power brokers will win, with the approval of the military. I called it a St. Jude moment simply because the protesters didn't have a backup plan worked out to put in place if they succeeded. After all, it's kind of senseless to stage a revolt without giving thought to what you would fill the vacuum with, otherwise anyone with political or military power could steal the moment away from you. As it now stands, the power brokers from Mubarak's regime and outside influences, like the US and Europe, will steer the decision making process on the new government for Egypt and the public will be stuck between a rock and a hard place. A net zero gain which makes it a lost cause. The same can be said for all of the Middle East too. Toss out one despot and there's a dozen in waiting to step up and wrestle control. I have serious doubts democracy will find fertile ground in the Middle East.

Here's a few articles that provides fuel for my melancholy take on Egypt's revolution:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,745425,00.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,745674,00.html

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/egyptian-army-tries-to-break-...

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/02/14/108730/egypts-opposition-fights-it...

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/02/201121393446561799....

I second Obey's "spot on."

Michael Wolraich — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 16:53:39 +0000

In reply to Spot on. I spent a good chunk

I second Obey's "spot on." But I have not spent any good chunks of time in the mideast, so his first is worth a lot more than my second.

Things are not looking

artappraiser — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 14:52:56 +0000

In reply to Will Iran Be Next?

Things are not looking good:

Iranian lawmakers condemn protests; call for execution of leaders
By the CNN Wire Staff
February 15, 2011 9:19 a.m. EST

Tehran, Iran (CNN) -- Iranian lawmakers denounced Monday's protests in Tehran and called for the execution of two opposition leaders for inciting the demonstrations, Iran's state-run Press TV reported Tuesday.

Members of the Iranian parliament issued fiery chants against opposition leaders and former presidential candidates Mehdi Karrubi and Mir Hossein Moussavi.

Press TV aired video Tuesday of lawmakers chanting "Moussavi, Karrubi ... execute them."

Lawmakers also named former President Mohammad Khatami in some of the death chants....

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/15/iran.protests/

BTW, CNN's Reza Sayah seem to be nearly the only rep of the western media actually in the country?

More here, including video:

Iranian MPs call for execution of Mousavi and Karroubi
created 02/15/2011 - 17:50

....Around seventy members of Iran's parliament (Majlis) marched through the parliament’s main hall in front of Majlis speaker Ali Larijani, chanting “Death to Mousavi and Karroubi and Khatami” and “Mousavi and Karoubi must be executed.” The spectacle was shown live on Iran’s IRINN (Islamic Republic of Iran News Network)....
http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2011/feb/15/2779

Good to have your input,

artappraiser — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 14:24:45 +0000

In reply to Spot on. I spent a good chunk

Good to have your input, especially given that you "spent a good chunk of time in Saudi Arabia and Jordan;" makes me feel that I myself am not getting totally delusional.

Spot on. I spent a good chunk

Obey — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 13:23:28 +0000

In reply to I do buy, from my obsessive

Spot on. I spent a good chunk of time in Saudi Arabia and Jordan, and that was exactly the impression I got about popular sentiment and popular beliefs.

Much like 9/11 was a game changer, so now 2/11 stands a good chance of changing the game once again, this time in a much more positive (fingers crossed) direction. There is going to have to be a radical rethink in how the US and the West generally deals with arab nations. Before dealing with these countries meant dealing, often sordid dealings, with their dictators. Now it will have to involve acknowledging the existence of ... the people in those countries.

It's a tricky time for US diplomacy, and imho, from what I've seen from the State department (i.e. Clinton and Wisner) they have no clue how to grapple with this brave new world.

I do buy, from my obsessive

artappraiser — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 13:12:30 +0000

In reply to It's been a century since

I do buy, from my obsessive interest and reading on it since the 93 WTC bombing on the general topic, that the "Al Qaeda" et. al. message was quite attractive to many of what we are now calling the disillusioned Sunni youth masses. (A generalization, of course, but a useful one.) It played well with general hatred of American foreign policy choices, it even fit the cultural tendencies where they existed to conspiracy theory (themselves the result of dictatorship controlling information.) After all, they had no one else offering any answers to the whole humiliation problem.

It is precisely the reason I am so very excited about the potential of these recent uprisings. They've finally got an alternative coming from the people themselves. Finally. It took some time but it finally happened and it's great news whatever the results. I feel its like the long nightmare is ending; it's the coup de grace to the whole "Al Qaeda "message. Matter of fact I just can't wait for the next Zawahri missive, it's going to be fun to see him squirm. Especially since he was once a revolutionary Arab youth screaming in a courtroom in Egypt. Yes, new nightmares may develop, maybe are certain, but I feel at least we are at the end of this chapter of history. It gives me hope, no more "war of civilizations." At least not those civilizations.

Edit to add: a reminder that Khamenei is sitll making the caliphate argument. I find that intriguing, actually for the following reason.. I suspect there's no cynicism there, more like delusional thinking, that as Al Qaeda et. al. is no longer a strong force, that these uprisings can be turned to the idea of a Shia caliphate, which the ayatollahs have never really given up on. Not the true believing ones, at least. As if the Sunni sect is showing signs of dying, i.e., going more secular is the same as dying, and they are left standing the one final truth and the light, they win, by Allah, that they are going to stick it out and win the caliphate prize.