dagblog - Comments for "NATO on Libya: Mimimal Intervention 'Victory' for US"

EU calls for summit with Arab

artappraiser — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 06:45:34 +0000

In reply to Saudi Arabia, UAE, GCC Call

EU calls for summit with Arab League, African Union on Libya

Deutsche Press-Agentur, March 11, 2011, 16:27 GMT

Brussels - The European Union wants to hold an emergency summit with the Arab League and the African Union to discuss the conflict in Libya, the bloc's president said Friday.

The EU and NATO have both identified the Arab League as a key diplomatic player in the unfolding crisis. In particular, some member states say that formal Arab League backing would be a vital precursor to any international military action to prevent atrocities in Libya.

'We call for the rapid holding of a summit between the Arab League, the African Union and the EU,' the president of the council of EU member states, Herman Van Rompuy, told journalists in Brussels after an emergency summit with EU leaders.

EU leaders agreed that the bloc will 'examine all necessary options to protect the civilian population' in Libya, but that 'support from the region' would be a vital prerequisite, he said.

EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton is scheduled to meet the secretary general of the Arab League on Monday.

European Leaders Don’t Rule Out Armed Intervention in Libyan Conflict
By Stephen Castle, New York Times, March 11, 2011

BRUSSELS — European leaders on Friday agreed to examine “all necessary options” — including armed intervention — to protect civilians should the Libyan leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, escalate attacks on rebel-held territories.

The statement, from an emergency European Union summit meeting, made no specific reference to calls led by France and supported by Britain for a no-flight zone. Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said she was “fundamentally skeptical” of military action.

“The only countries that want a no-fly zone are Britain and France,” said a European diplomat, insisting on anonymity because of the delicacy of the issue. “Germany is against.”

Still, Friday’s statement called on Colonel Qaddafi to quit, did not rule out military intervention by Europeans, and reiterated suggestions from American and European diplomats that such a move would require a clear legal basis, regional support and a clear motive.

Those conditions are not close to being met, but Europe is trying to ready itself if Colonel Qaddafi unleashes such violence that both the United Nations Security Council and the Arab League believe they must step in.

“This is about planning for any eventuality,” said another European diplomat. “Such that, if the situation deteriorates further, we would not be waiting three weeks or more to respond.”....

EU-LEADERS/LIBYA =2 BRUSSELS
Reuters, March 11, 2011 12:52pm EST

GERMAN CHANCELLOR ANGELA MERKEL

ON LIBYA SUMMIT PROPOSAL:

"We agreed to set up a three-way summit with the African Union, the Arab League and the European Union, because we want to work hand in hand with all the regional organisations and we also of course expect these regional organisations to make their contribution."

ON LIBYAN LEADER MUAMMAR GADDAFI AND SANCTIONS:

"We want the dictator Gaddafi to....

The Financial Times has Arab

artappraiser — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 04:45:38 +0000

In reply to Saudi Arabia, UAE, GCC Call

The Financial Times has Arab League source saying meeting on Saturday will back a no-fly zone. In my experiemce, The FT is usually quite accurate with their diplomatic source stories:

Arab League prepares to back no-fly zone

By Roula Khalaf in London and Joshua Chaffin in Brussels, Financial Times, March 11 2011 20:58

The Arab League is preparing to accept a UN-backed no-fly zone over Libya when foreign ministers meet in Cairo on Saturday, a move that would provide much-needed Arab cover to international intervention.

Hisham Youssef, a senior Arab League official, told the Financial Times that Libyan leader Muammer Gaddafi’s actions had crossed lines, making it difficult for foreign ministers not to back a no-fly zone that would protect civilians against regime attacks.

“States would want a UN Security Council resolution that addresses the no-fly zone so it would not be unilateral action,” he said. “The league is moving towards accepting this.”

The Cairo meeting follows an unusually strong statement on Thursday by Arab Gulf states which said the Gaddafi government was no longer legitimate....

Saudi Arabia, UAE, GCC Call

artappraiser — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 01:09:37 +0000

In reply to NATO on Libya: Mimimal Intervention 'Victory' for US

Saudi Arabia, UAE, GCC Call Gadhafi's Regime "Illegitimate,"
By Agustino Fontevecchia, Forbes, 03.11.11, 11:08 AM EST

An organization of Gulf States has withdrawn any sort of support for the Libyan regime, isolating them further.

...In the context of foreign ministers meetings of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman, the Saudi press agency announced they had ceased to recognize Gadhafi’s regime as the legitimate authority in Libya.

“On the situation in Libya, the Council denounced the crimes committed against civilians by using live bullets and heavy weapons and recruiting mercenaries, killing big number of innocent victims and constituting flagrant violations of human rights and international humanitarian law."

"The GCC Foreign Ministers confirmed the illegality of the current Libyan regime, calling for staging contacts with the transitional National Council in Libya. They called on the Arab League to shoulder responsibility to take the necessary measures to defuse rifts, achieve the aspirations of the Libyan people and take the necessary measures to do that, including calling the UN Security Council to impose a no-fly zone over Libya to protect civilians,” read the release....

http://www.forbes.com/2011/03/11/libya-gadhafi-markets-equities-oil.html

Note they are calling on the Arab League to do the same and for the Arab League to call on the UN Security Council to impose a no fly zone. So clearly Saudi Arabia is on board with doing that. The press release Forbes is quoting is official Saudi government messaging.

Yup, fates worse than

artappraiser — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 00:55:46 +0000

In reply to I fear for the Libyan rebels

Yup, fates worse than death.

On the one hand in so many ways it seems crazy to think he could control it for long, but then there's always the other hand, like look at North Korea....

I've always found one thing about "al Qaeda" theory quite striking--the "we love death more than you love life" thing. If you don't value life, a lot can be done that people that do value it think is impossible. On Libya I was thinking along the lines of U.S. in Iraq or NATO in Afghanistan, how even without major weapons, rebels can just keep on keepin' on. But that's only because we value life. If you get as tough as North Korea and are willing to eradicate the lives causing the problem, the sabotage or long-term rebellion thing just isn't that troublesome.

I fear for the Libyan rebels

Donal — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 13:34:21 +0000

In reply to NATO on Libya: Mimimal Intervention 'Victory' for US

I fear for the Libyan rebels if Gaddafi retakes the entire country.

WaPo: Clinton to meet with

artappraiser — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 04:27:20 +0000

In reply to U.S. Intelligence Chief

WaPo: Clinton to meet with rebel leaders and that the USAID team ,which Donilon stresses in above CNN article as humanitarian only, will go to rebel territory:

U.S. to send aid team to eastern Libya; Clinton to meet rebel representatives

By Karen DeYoung and Edward Cody, Washington Post, March 10, 2011; 9:54 PM

The White House announced Thursday that it will send a government aid team into rebel-held parts of Libya and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said she will meet next week with representatives of the transition council, moves that edged the Obama administration closer to the formal Libyan opposition.

But the administration stopped far short of recognizing the council as Libya's legitimate government and continued to wrestle with how to achieve its goals of pushing Moammar Gaddafi from power while ensuring that something better far replaces him....

Obama Seeks a Course of

artappraiser — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 04:15:18 +0000

In reply to NATO on Libya: Mimimal Intervention 'Victory' for US

Obama Seeks a Course of Pragmatism in the Middle East/News Analysis

President Obama has adopted a policy of restraint in the Middle East crisis, recognizing a stark reality that U.S. security interests weigh as heavily as idealistic impulses.
By Mark Landler and Helene Cooper, New York Times, March 10, 2011

[....]

“It’s tempting, and it would be easy, to go out day after day with cathartic statements that make us feel good,” said Benjamin J. Rhodes, the deputy national security adviser, who wrote Mr. Obama’s soaring speech in Cairo to the Islamic world in 2009. “But ultimately, what’s most important is achieving outcomes that are consistent with our values, because if we don’t, those statements will be long forgotten.”

On Thursday, Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, Thomas E. Donilon, deflected calls for more aggressive action in Libya, telling reporters what American officials have been saying privately for days: despite pleas from Libyan rebels for military assistance, the United States will not, at least for now, put its pilots in harm’s way by enforcing a no-flight zone over the country.

Not only is intervention risky, officials said, but they also fear that in some cases, it could be counterproductive, provoking a backlash against the United States for meddling in what is a homegrown political movement.

A senior administration official acknowledged the irony of Mr. Obama’s dilemma; he is, after all, the first black president, whose election was hailed on the Arab street, where many protesters identify their own struggles with the civil rights movement.

“There is a desire for Obama — not the American president, but Obama — to speak to their aspirations,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. But, he added, “his first job is to be the American president.”

So Mr. Obama has thrown his weight behind attempts by the royal family of Bahrain, the home of the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, to survive, although protesters say their demands have not been met. He has said little about political grievances in Saudi Arabia, a major oil supplier, where there were reports on Thursday of a violent dispersal of Shiite protesters. And he has limited White House critiques of Yemen, where the government is helping the United States root out a terrorist threat, even after that government opened fire on demonstrators.

[...]

U.S. Intelligence Chief

artappraiser — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 01:59:36 +0000

In reply to NATO on Libya: Mimimal Intervention 'Victory' for US

U.S. Intelligence Chief Clapper tells Senate that Gadhafi is likely to survive revolt, which results in Lindsey Graham calling for his firing. (And NSA Donilon says whatever USAID does "can in no way shape or form be seen as military intervention"):

Gadhafi likely to survive revolt, U.S. intelligence chief says
By the CNN Wire Staff, CNN, March 10, 2011 6:26 p.m. EST
....White House National Security Adviser Thomas Donilon told reporters that the U.S. Agency for International Development teams will be sent into monitor the delivery of humanitarian aid and should not be viewed as a military operation.
"It can in no way shape or form be seen as military intervention," Donlion said.....
.....Clapper told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the rebels are "in for a tough row" against Gadhafi, who still commands warplanes, an air-defense network and loyal army brigades against the opposition forces. He cautioned that the situation is "very fluid," but added, "I think, longer term, the regime will prevail."

"I do believe Gadhafi is in this for the long haul," Clapper said. "I don't think he has any intention, despite some of the press speculation to the contrary, of leaving. From all evidence that we have -- which I'd be prepared to discuss in closed session -- he appears to be hunkering down for the duration."

The comment led to a call for Clapper's firing by a member of the committee, South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham. In a statement issued after the hearing, Graham said the remarks were "not helpful to our national security interests."

But Clapper's assessment was backed up by Lt. Gen. Ronald Burgess, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency. Burgess told senators that Gadhafi "seems to have staying power, unless some other dynamic changes at this time.".....

More detail on the

artappraiser — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 01:30:23 +0000

In reply to NATO on Libya: Mimimal Intervention 'Victory' for US

More detail on the disagreements. I have highlighted a statement by Gates because I suspect it may be meant refer to the Arab League rather than just general regional opinion:

NATO Steps Back From Military Intervention in Libya
By Elisabeth Bumiller, New York Times, March 10, 2011
BRUSSELS —.....
...Both Mr. Gates and Mr. Rasmussen made clear that NATO would agree to a no-flight zone only with “a clear legal basis” — in short, authorization from the United Nations. Both also said in nearly identical statements that NATO would not take any military action unless there was “a demonstrable need” and strong support from neighboring Arab nations.

“We are very mindful of opinion in the region,” Mr. Gates said.

NATO officials did not saw which warships, or how many, would be repositioned, or exactly where. Mr. Gates only said they would move closer to Libya to monitor an United Nations-imposed arms embargo.

Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary, said that Adm. James G. Stavridis, NATO’s supreme allied commander, would make decisions shortly about which ships already in the Mediterranean would head toward Libya. Mr. Morrell said they could be American ships or those of another NATO nation. At least three American warships are already in the area: a destroyer, the Barry; an amphibious landing ship, the Kearsarge; and an amphibious transport dock, the Ponce.

Within NATO on Thursday, the United States and Germany were the most resistant to a no-flight zone, while France and Britain, which have been a drafting a United Nations resolution calling for one, were strongly in favor. But there was even disagreement among those who agreed.

When France stepped ahead of the rest of the military alliance on Thursday morning to become the first country to recognize the Libyan rebel leadership in the eastern city of Benghazi, Britain took exception. In comments at the European Union in Brussels, Britain’s foreign secretary, William Hague, said that the Libyan rebels were “legitimate people to talk to, of course, but we recognize groups rather than groups within states.”

Germany in the meantime took a strong position against a no-flight zone. “We do not want to get sucked into a war in north Africa,” the German foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle, said Thursday at the European Union.

But his government did join the United States, Switzerland and other countries in freezing Libyan government assets....

German foreign

artappraiser — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 01:11:47 +0000

In reply to NATO on Libya: Mimimal Intervention 'Victory' for US

German foreign minister:

...."We're not the only country that is skeptical about the wisdom of military intervention through the establishment of a no-fly zone," Westerwelle told reporters after a meeting of EU foreign ministers here.
"My main concern is when we look at North Africa, we fail to see the bigger picture." He added that while some EU member states, including Germany, wanted to speak to the opposition in countries such as Libya, this decision should involve considerable caution about partners for dialogue.
"We need to think very carefully about who we recognize, and who we speak with," Westerwelle said. "The shoots of democracy in this region should grow into a hardy plant."
He added that the freezing of assets controlled by Gadhafi, his entourage and investment funds had been done "quickly and efficiently." "German banks have been involved in this operation...so Gadhafi can't finance a civil war against his own people," Westerwelle said.

from Germany Not Alone In Skepticism Of N Africa Action - Minister , by Frances Robinson in Brussels, Dow Jones Newswire, March 10.

"We don't want to get sucked into a war in North Africa," German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle told reporters in Brussels before a meeting of European Union foreign ministers.

from Qaddafi Mounts Offensive as NATO Holds Back on No-Fly Zone, by Ola Galal and Jonathan Tirone, Bloomberg News, March 10, 2011