dagblog - Comments for "So You Want To Be A Millionaire: Libyan Popular Resistance, 1000 Strong"

There's still no indication

artappraiser — Sun, 27 Mar 2011 18:04:47 +0000

In reply to Hey, did I tell you I held

There's still no indication how much of the local population is actually with this.

I'd say the panning shots in the following video are a pretty damn strong indication of the majority of the population of Benghazi being anti-Gaddafi:

Voices from a Benghazi Rally, CNN, February 24, 2011

True that it doesn't mean all of Libya and doesn't mean they are all pro-rebel.

But then neither is the U.N. pro rebel, their position is ceaefire then negotiate. He refused the ceasefire.

As to the concerns about two Libyas, north vs. south. I don't get why it's our business beyond what they themselves end up doing. The UN giveth in 1951, creating a kingdom where there were only 2 to 3 Italian territories before and Ottoman rule before that. The UN can help do a revised version if the people want it. An earlier incarnation for an example: 1707, the Kingdoms of Tripoli and Faisan, and the land of Berdoa, It's not like it's sancrosant writ in hieroglyphics ancient Egypt; I can fill several shelves with obsolete atlases of Africa published in my lifetime.

I was cheating. I wasn't just

Flavius — Sun, 27 Mar 2011 15:44:28 +0000

In reply to 1.08 million is not over 20%

I was cheating. I wasn't just counting Benghazi but including Tobruk and Misrata

It gave you its all and you

Desider — Sun, 27 Mar 2011 15:23:30 +0000

In reply to That ferret and I had a

It gave you its all and you still don't know its gender?

Watch out for those husky sounding girls in Juarez, my friend. The blank political days press her now. (search for Slinger)

Who cares about the

we are stardust — Sun, 27 Mar 2011 14:55:53 +0000

In reply to Thanks very much, but that's

Who cares about the spelling? It's the pronunciation thingies that can toast my cookies. For instance, anyone who says 'Eye-rack' should be dropped through the nearest trapdoor; same went for 'SOD-'em Hussein. (of course, that was Daddy Bush's clever try at a scatalogical diss...)

http://www.economist.com/blog

Desider — Sun, 27 Mar 2011 14:37:11 +0000

In reply to The problem is Libyan

http://www.economist.com/blogs/johnson/2011/02/libya

in case any unwise and unwashed feel like arguing with me.

The problem is Libyan

Desider — Sun, 27 Mar 2011 14:36:14 +0000

In reply to Actually, I think القذافي‎

The problem is Libyan pronunciation is different from standard Arabic.

So you're right for the Arab world, including Al Jazeera.

Quinn's right when in Tripoli (which by the way sounds completely different in Arabic) and Benghazi.

Of course if Quinn pronounced his own name with a proper Arabic Q, he'd probably either choke or blow a hole through his Adam's apple.

And in America you can just call him "Mummer" and get away with it.

1.08 million is not over 20%

Desider — Sun, 27 Mar 2011 14:30:22 +0000

In reply to My over 20% was based on the

1.08 million is not over 20% of a 6.4 million total.

A bit less than 17% by my calculator.

My over 20% was based on the

Flavius — Sun, 27 Mar 2011 12:13:25 +0000

In reply to Careful with stastics

My over 20% was based on the far right column which I take to be the population of the entire metropolitan area.And includes Tobruk et al. After 20 years as an unwilling ( I went into business only because I was turned down by Columbia Journalism) corporate comptroller I usually get numbers right.

Careful with stastics

Desider — Sun, 27 Mar 2011 08:06:29 +0000

In reply to You're more apt to change

Careful with stastics creep: Benghazi at 700,000 people to "over 20% of the population" (6.5 million)

Yes, it might seem I'm changing goalposts, but I trust more in Egypt's slow protest buildup and information-full weeks of rage over an uprising that started 15 Feb and Benghazi "fell" 23 Feb, only 8 days later.

There is decent info on how poorly the rebels are equipped, and for all the talk of how the army switched sides, if the rebels only have "1000 trained soldiers" as Ali Hourani tells NY Times, then obviously the switch hasn't been so convincing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/world/africa/24minister.html?_r=1

As the link Stardust gives below, the rebels are dragnetting for any supporters of Qaddafi and killing/imprisoning them, so not unusual that Qaddafi supporters might keep quiet at the moment or pretend allegiance to the new way. But any bravado that they were headed to Tripoli has faded - we're stuck with pretty much an Eastern breakaway movement to support, one that can't even hit anything far away, no chance of moving across the desert.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2061111,00.html

And we really don't know who or what will rule a new government if the West manages to keep Qaddafi from retaliating. Egypt has The American University in Cairo as just one example of liberal institutions that have trained people for self-sufficiency (a whole lot more studied in London or other decent universities, have been part of the international community in a 1000 ways, whatever Mubarak's torture and other excesses. Same for Tunisia, et al).

From these articles it also seems that Qaddafi's also letting the east's businesses sink as this uprising rolls out, and that sooner rather than later there will be pressure to get back to making some money rather than continuing revolt. Re-said, it doesn't seem like a deeply felt, unified revolt, but rather one where the rebels got a bit cocky with early easy successes. (And in the desert, there's typically not a need to rush).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-24/libyan-rebel-march-on-tripoli-is-hobbled-by-lack-of-organization-weapons.html

Libya has been isolated, and we really don't know what we're supporting, whether there's any sense of democratic movement or simply "local control" for Cyreneica. (Conveniently, that's where a lot of oil production is - the Sarir field is the largest and lies in southern Cyreneica - which would allow the west to negotiate oil contracts vs. the nationalized Libyan production).

Really it's hard to see where we can get clarity in foreign/military policy in this regard. The only big step forward I've seen is that Medvedev has split with Putin in saying, "It's Qaddafi's own damn fault for firing on his own people". It's that kind of simplicity that could lead to a new doctrine, but it needs to be repeatable and implementable, not just a vague promise that could lead to a Bay of Pigs or Kurdish slaughter in most cases, and freedom and democracy in a few.

And we're still sitting by in the Ivory Coast 4 months later despite democratic elections that threw out the last bum, but he won't leave. Funny how that UN Security Council resolution for supporting the freely elected new government just hasn't taken place, but Libya's got through in a matter of days. Yes, I can't prove the difference is oil (and large cash reserves) until the next Wikileaks dump, but the stinking suspicion won't go away soon.

No one knows for sure.

anonymous — Sun, 27 Mar 2011 04:43:12 +0000

In reply to I saw this piece, or more

No one knows for sure. Therefore, the more heavy weaponry demolished, the better.. Where nobody or no group can win and rule over another via access to powerful machinery. Where they've got to use things like skills, smarts, coalition building, conviction. Yes, skills can include nasty ones like being a good sniper. But that would still be a situation where they'd have to convince that sniper to be on their side.