El Salvador Decimated Its Ruthless Gangs. But at What Cost?

By artappraiser on Sun, 04/09/2023 - 7:16pm |

In the year since El Salvador declared a state of emergency, the government has delivered a stunning blow to the gangs that were once the ultimate authority in much of the country.

A cost most people are thrilled to embrace. If progressive policies fail and/or create a public safety void, the get-tough crowd will be happy to oblige. And no root causes were addressed in this 80+%(?) reduction in murder. (Strange numbers aren't given) https://t.co/Mx31Y4j2Z6
— Peter Moskos (@PeterMoskos) April 9, 2023

URL:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/world/americas/el-salvador-gangs.html

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90%. https://t.co/8L6zoWZSFv
— Peter Moskos (@PeterMoskos) April 9, 2023

by artappraiser on Sun, 04/09/2023 - 7:19pm

Many, maybe most Americans know exactly what’s happening. But too many experts are either deliberately dishonest or too afraid to discuss some uncomfortable truths.
— Steve B 744 (@SteveBellow) April 9, 2023

If they really wanted to impact gun violence in a meaningful way, they would support robust prosecution and incapacitation of gun violators. They’d publicly oppose Reform prosecutors & judges who allow repeat gun violators to run wild with little to no consequences.
— Steve B 744 (@SteveBellow) April 9, 2023

Easier to prevent Billy Bob in rural Mississippi from target shooting with his AR-15 and say “we’re doing something.” Instead of having to admit that most shootings are a handful of people unlawfully carrying after multiple arrests.
— Steve B 744 (@SteveBellow) April 9, 2023

If family dogs were being shot and gunned downed at the same rate as Black people in cities like Chicago, Baltimore, St. Louis or Philly, nobody would give a damn about our higher level of incarceration or compare us to England. Or bed wet over cops stopping & chasing shooters.
— Steve B 744 (@SteveBellow) April 9, 2023

by artappraiser on Sun, 04/09/2023 - 7:24pm

I keep wishing these articles about Bukele would try to explain in more detail why this seems to have worked so much better than earlier “mano dura” episodes — it’s genuinely not the first time someone tried getting tough. https://t.co/vPH0Y2qFJg
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) April 9, 2023

Go back and read articles from the pre-Bukele period and the conventional wisdom was that Francisco Flores’ mid-aughts gang crackdown backfired because the prisons themselves were huge centers of gang recruiting and organization. https://t.co/HbzaLIl1x3
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) April 9, 2023

It’s all well and good to ask “at what cost” but people are going to be willing to pay a high cost in exchange for an 80 percent (!) reduction in homicides.

Stuff is going to get copied. It’s important to try to understand why exactly this worked.
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) April 9, 2023

The article goes on to mention his popularity elsewhere in Latin America, but it's not like Mexico didn't try this under Calderon and see the exact opposite effect. And Mexico is a much wealthier country with much stronger institutions!

Agree there's a lot more detail needed
— Jacob Oppenheim (@curcuas) April 9, 2023

Right, like how did he come up with security forces capable of implementing this policy?
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) April 9, 2023

Or why we never heard about it until they made a bond payment https://t.co/FCaPb9Er7O
— Llewellyn Jones (@llewhinkes) April 9, 2023

It’s probably this, man: https://t.co/qBI90uLVbQ. Also - this isn’t new either. Previous presidents have claimed to lower crime by getting tough on gangs, when in actuality they struck some deals
— Joe Press (@FutbolxFitness) April 9, 2023

Is it the lead? https://t.co/zWeVhJ7hMt
— Joel Wertheimer (@Wertwhile) April 9, 2023

Nah, Bukele did a lot of... negotiations with the maras/gangs. https://t.co/fPl8ClJgXB
— Andre Kenji de Sousa (@andkenbr) April 9, 2023

discussion continues on the thread

by artappraiser on Sun, 04/09/2023 - 10:32pm

A popular leader doing stuff people want is democracy. It’s okay to admit that sometimes you’re in the minority and all of your preferences aren’t speaking to some silent majority. pic.twitter.com/3IaKlMR1Zh
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) April 10, 2023

Read the first sentence of the Freedom House report. El Salvador has many flaws but it’s a democracy, not an autocracy. Democracy does not mean policies you personally favor. https://t.co/FNXtsO4rPL
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) April 10, 2023

There’s also the lame thing where American writers pretend every country’s politics is actually about America. MAGA? El Salvador has spent years being one of the most dangerous places in the world. This led to a democratically elected crime crackdown. It’s not about America.
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) April 10, 2023

by artappraiser on Mon, 04/10/2023 - 3:48am

so now see if the need for remittance inflow improves; according to this chart, El Salvador was worse than Haiti on that front in 2022:

Countries with Highest Remittance Inflows as % of GDP, 2022

1. Tonga: 49.9%
2. Lebanon: 37.8
3. Samoa: 33.7
4. Tajikistan: 32.1
5. Kyrgyz Republic: 31.3
6. Gambia: 28.3
7. Honduras: 27.1
8. South Sudan: 24.8
9. El Salvador: 23.8
10. Haiti: 22.5
.
22.…
— The World Ranking (@worldranking_) April 16, 2023

by artappraiser on Sat, 04/22/2023 - 5:57pm

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