Even if Democrats don't sit on their asses, I still think little will change until the demography of the gerrymandered House districts changes, or the gerrymandered borders are changed. All depends upon where groups like "white working class millenial liberals" end up living.

Another thing that always had big potential to change things is real results in GOTV in mid-terms. as well as local elections that don't coincide with the presidential election. Even in many gerrymandered districts, the majority don't think totally like the conservative GOP, they just get that kind of representation because of the activists that vote while they don't show up.

Michael, I'm curious to know what you mean by the "same old liberal fires".  LBJ was the last of the liberal firebrands for me.  The neoliberals have dominated the party since way back.    In fact, you might even call Jimmy Carter the first neoliberal.   I don't see any liberal fire in the belly of today's establishment Democrats - not even a glowing ember.   Elizabeth Warren and Wendy Davis are examples of the old liberal fire and we need more of that, not less. 

Before the Moral Majority there was the Silent Majority and the republicans put words in their mouths and minds.  They were "branded" in more ways than one. I believe there's another silent majority today, but there's no one to speak for it.

The pendulum will probably swing back at some point, but in the meantime...  The right is winning everything its little heart has ever desired and precisely because there is no old liberal fire on the other side of the aisle.  By the time Democrats are back in the drivers seat, this country will be back in the middle ages, but certainly not the 50s

Demographics are hard to ignore if for no other reason than political organizations put so much energy into capturing as many voters as they can from each 'group.' To some degree, the influence of self identified groups is the product of marginalizing those who don't self identify. Speaking for something like a silent majority is almost an epic poem in that regard; As if one's inactivity somehow magically joined them with a secret praxis.

Whether from the left or right, there has to be a clear sense that a certain policy style will provide enough leverage to change things in a way that people in general will recognize. The idea that such leverage is available has to contend with an opposing notion that we are on a roller coaster and cannot meaningfully change what is happening.

Political messages tend to hedge their bets between the two parties.

I think it's misleading to just say the GOP "used race politics" to win the south. They certainly used enough racist fear to stoke the fire. But the rebirth was won on insecurity, concern about serious rising crime, a shaky economy, threats from the Russians & Iran, a welfare system that seemed to encourage rather than fix structural poverty.

The poster emblems of this war were the Ayatollah & a crashed US helicopter/fleeing from the embassy, Detroit auto bailout, crack gangs in LA, Jimmy Carter sweater politics during high unemployment and Russian threat, Star Wars (hope!), tax cuts (less government! more filling!), Russia in Afghanistan/advisors in Nicaragua/Castro in Angola, roving crack gangs with machine guns, the single black welfare mother.

So you're right that they can come up with new divisive issues for the next generation - you just underrepresent how many knives they had in their toolkit last time.

Leave out the welfare mother and they can win over 3rd generation Hispanics with the rest. Since Russia's not so scary anymore and the Ayatollah never invaded anyone, they've created a shadowy ever-present menace. Since Star Wars even now has failed 5 years in a row, they have an NSA surveillance system that can never fail - it pops up a success here & there to justify its costly expansion (but hush hush - top secret behind that curtain). There's a Democratic president so unemployment will be blamed on him no matter what. There were no prosecutions for malfeasance in 2008 so the GOP is largely left blameless for the meltdown.

They're still running on the Democrats being girly boys, soft on security, soft on real threats, pampering people instead of getting them to carry their own weight. Besides the messaging machine, they keep managing to win through legislative tactics, gerrymandering, controlling the apparatus. They understand voting is a problem, so they attack voting head-on. (in the 80's, drug busts were a direct way of lowering black Democratic votes - now its challenges at the poll, lowering number of booths in black districts & college campuses, and focusing on the hair-on-fire issues to bring out their base - gay marriage worked in 2004, new issue needed for 2014/2016 - hey, gun rights & abortion back front & center).

And frankly, even with an LBJ-era super majority in Congress, I can't see Democrats coming out ahead with Harry Reid-style leadership in the face of Boehner and Teabaggers. They just never seem to take GOP tactics serious - they do have matches, they will burn the house down or half of it, yes they should be locked up or at least resisted in an organized way. Instead half of Democratic energy is spent trying to out GOP the GOP - hey, we can slash spending & social programs too! hey, we can lock up whistleblowers too! And we pointed out Republicans are racist and hypocrites! Good luck with waiting for the GOP to die at that speed - just creating more zombies, night of the living dead.

The GOP will maintain a Southern stranglehold for the near future. As LBG said, the South was lost after the Civil Rights Act. Republicans are actively working to roll the clock back on Civil Rights and much of the drive is focused in the South.The change of the region from conservative Republican to Republican was all about race. For years Democrats had to tiptoe around the issue because there was the presumption that a President ticket had to include a candidate from the South. Southerners had to be placated. Democrats diluted bills focusing on minorities.

There was no Southern candidate on either major party ticket in 2012. Obama won Virginia and Florida and narrowly lost North Carolina so things may be changing. He won North Carolina in 2008. Some Democrats had advocated simply writing off the South as a source of Democratic votes. Other Democrats point out that the voting pattern may change as the South becomes more urban as urban-rural divides are seen in the North as well. Democrats fare better in urban areas. Tactics to insure Republicans victories in the South are changing but race had a great deal to do with the initial change in voting pattern. 

Romney won the four states with the strictest voter ID laws. Obama won four of the eleven states with some form of voter ID. Republicans realize the impact that voter IDs can have and are pushing forward with more voter ID bills. The Republicans use the fantasy of voter fraud as cover. Minorities are the ones suspecting of being the source of the fraud. It is interesting that Republicans were caught committing actual voter fraud. 

Republican Rand Paul will remain popular despite a cloudy history on race.Paul said that he would not have voted for the Civil Rights Act of 1964. He has sinse backtracked in an attempt to seem like a moderate.

In 2009 Chris Hightower  a Rand Paul spokesperson had to resign after being exposed as a White Supremacist Devil worshipper ( you can't make this stuff up). Hightowers' claim to fame was writing HAPPY N****R DAY on Martin Luther King Jr.'s birthday.

Rand Paul then made a flubbed attempt to educate Howard students about the history of the Republican Party on matters of race. Unfortunately, a Howard student had to supply Rand with the name Edward Brooke.Paul's cram session on Black history caused brain freeze. Blacks were not impressed.

Now we have Rand Paul staffer and social media manager, Jack Hunter, exposed as a Southern secessionist. Hunter's highlight was noting that Lincoln's assassin, John Wilkes Booth, had is heart in the right place.

Rand Paul seems to find himself in deep feces on issues of race. Predictably, Paul Deirdre's attention to drones to avoid the controversy. He is now threatening to block the nomination of the new FBI director because of drones.