I'm pretty bad at the politics part of politics. Sure, I can read opinion polls and guess at what messages will play well in communities I know well, but I don't have a great crystal ball for predicting how groups of people will react to major events.
When I look over at the Republican ticket I see one threat (Mitt Romney) and a lot of nothing else. I also think Romney is eminently beatable and that so long as the economy is improving, even if it's improving too slowly, Obama has to be the odds-on favorite to win in 2012. But, hey, anything can happen, right?