Not-quite-final NH polling average shows Sanders 5 points ahead of Buttigieg, largely unchanged from past couple days. Close 3-way battle after that. https://t.co/nRWOEjafiWpic.twitter.com/5W0ZmQPAdw
We do see some late growth for Klobuchar. But Buttigieg's numbers have been steady so it doesn't seem to be coming at his expense. (It's possible that Buttigieg would be gaining further if not for Klob, I suppose.)
We are not aware of any more NH polls coming but it's a state where late stuff can trickle in.
We are expecting 1-2 national polls in the first half of the day tomorrow (and we could really use nat'l polls) so we'll probably hold the model open for those then freeze after that.
BREAKING: Bernie Sanders Drew Record Turnout at his Rally Tonight in New Hampshire with over 6,700 Proud Supporters who came out on the eve of the New Hampshire Primary, this Rally is over 3 times the size of the largest Rally of Any other Dem Candidate.https://t.co/Z6NcLH6NtU
I hear Pete Buttegieg has Ukrainian roots - at least his name sounds like it could be Ukrainian - plus once ate Chinese takeout.
Pretty sure that calls for an investigation.
This is the part of New Hampshire I’m from, and describes the experience of my family so well. My mom, after decades of restaurant jobs, found the best job she had ever had in the mid-90s: a unionized job in a prison kitchen, 40 miles away in VT, for $32k. https://t.co/XOePikgnlw
Biden fled the state, Warren pre-spun expected poor performance, Bloomberg not competing. That’s 3 of 4 leaders in national polls. The 4th, Sanders, won NH landslide in 2016 and is expected to do the same tonight. Only .6% of delegates are up for grabs. How much will NH matter?
Iowa and NH only matter because of the so called band wagon effect. It appears that a significant number of people will change their vote to support a rising candidate or to leave a failing candidate based on these early results even though the actual number of delegates awarded is meaningless/
Andrew Yang and Michael Bennett have dropped out tonight. Bennet was a breaking on MSNBC just now., they showed live camera waiting for him to come speak. Hear is Yang:
Andrew Yang suspends his campaign: “I am the math guy and it is clear tonight from the numbers that we are not going to win this race. I am not someone who wants to accept donations and support in a race that we will not win.” https://t.co/enn9EReHqvpic.twitter.com/X9kh8vFmQE
ruh roh I don't like what I was just hearing from the Kornacke guy on MSNBC, he was saying it's looking like Bernie won because he got a big majority in the urban areas and Pete was stronger in the suburban and rural ones...
say it ain't so, analysts tomorrow!...
or maybe Amy can do something bout that in the future....
as always, it ain't over til it's over, ask Presidents Paul Tsongas and Gary Hart
this is the kind of hyperbole I don't trust, at the same time it is the way politicos talk and how they attack, and it's Olivia Nuzzi reporting it and she's pretty respected, soooo, I think it's worth a gander. At the very least,it's worth knowing that it's a meme being spread"
Establishment’s gotta lock Pete and Amy in a shipping container, like in the Shield, move forward with a single post-Biden champion rather than two people who are going to spend the whole next debate blasting each other.
Bernie desperately needs to not fall into the Corbyn trap of lefty ritualism. He doesnt have move an inch on any of his values or policies but he needs to come across as a normie, a patriotic American. Activist-speak is a filter for the well educated, not the broad working class.
As an "electability" candidate, Klobuchar has always made a lot more sense than Joe Biden or the mayor of the fourth-largest city in Indiana. https://t.co/pQTjjHlMWW
Bernie desperately needs to not fall into the Corbyn trap of lefty ritualism. He doesnt have move an inch on any of his values or policies but he needs to come across as a normie, a patriotic American. Activist-speak is a filter for the well educated, not the broad working class.
It’s good to have a contest for the nomination, but there’s a clear need for thinking about how to change the rules to make these things shorter and less expensive.
Our model has been updated, although one needs to treat it with a lot of caution since it's making guesses about the reaction to NH that may or may not resemble reality.
The main takeaway is that the chances of "no majority" are up to 1 in 3. https://t.co/JDz2dZ8bqR
The model didn't love NH for Bernie—whom, I should say, it's been very high on—as he underperformed its projections there by a couple of points. Sanders also got a couple of mediocre polls today hadn't hit the model yet as we awaited NH results.
But it doesn't like anyone else's position either. It doesn't see why Klobuchar should get huge momentum out of a 3rd place finish, and she's at just 4% in national polls. It actually now has Bloomberg (who got a couple of good polls today) getting the 3rd-most delegates.
One thing I wonder about a bit is whether Klobuchar could step on Bloomberg's bounce. Both candidates get very favorable media coverage and fill some of the same niches.
Hot take incoming: I think Bloomberg's recent bounce is more about earned media & less about paid media than many people assume. The paid media obviously raises his floor. But he's gotten very favorable *recent* coverage on network/cable TV, which older voters watch.
Comments
Mr. Silver two hours ago:
by artappraiser on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 11:39pm
the traditional Dixville Notch, NH first vote at midnight by the 5 registered residents:
The only Republican: write-in for Michael Bloomberg!
The 4 Democrats: 2 write-ins for Michael Bloomberg! 1 for Sanders. 1 for Buttigieg.
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 12:01am
"party-on, bros" video& photos of Bernie's record-sized rally in Durham:
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 12:28am
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 12:53am
I hear Pete Buttegieg has Ukrainian roots - at least his name sounds like it could be Ukrainian - plus once ate Chinese takeout.
Pretty sure that calls for an investigation.
by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 9:10am
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 1:09am
Ryan Lizza says hello?
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 5:26pm
Iowa and NH only matter because of the so called band wagon effect. It appears that a significant number of people will change their vote to support a rising candidate or to leave a failing candidate based on these early results even though the actual number of delegates awarded is meaningless/
by ocean-kat on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 6:10pm
Andrew Yang and Michael Bennett have dropped out tonight. Bennet was a breaking on MSNBC just now., they showed live camera waiting for him to come speak. Hear is Yang:
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 8:27pm
ruh roh I don't like what I was just hearing from the Kornacke guy on MSNBC, he was saying it's looking like Bernie won because he got a big majority in the urban areas and Pete was stronger in the suburban and rural ones...
say it ain't so, analysts tomorrow!...
or maybe Amy can do something bout that in the future....
as always, it ain't over til it's over, ask Presidents Paul Tsongas and Gary Hart
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 11:23pm
God, we need some campaign trail nookie about now.
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 02/12/2020 - 1:47am
this is the kind of hyperbole I don't trust, at the same time it is the way politicos talk and how they attack, and it's Olivia Nuzzi reporting it and she's pretty respected, soooo, I think it's worth a gander. At the very least,it's worth knowing that it's a meme being spread"
by artappraiser on Wed, 02/12/2020 - 12:14am
I find this interesting. I think he represents an important type of voter and an influencer type as well:
by artappraiser on Wed, 02/12/2020 - 12:24am
Yglesias followed that with this retweet:
he also wrote this:
he later added these thoughts
by artappraiser on Wed, 02/12/2020 - 6:18am
Nate Silver on the updated 538 "model"
by artappraiser on Wed, 02/12/2020 - 6:50am
For those who follow such things, here's a racist breakout by skin color from the Morning Consult national poll taken day after NH:
by artappraiser on Thu, 02/13/2020 - 4:19pm