Fundamentals Favor Republicans

By artappraiser on Thu, 10/27/2022 - 10:11pm |

"With less than two weeks until Election Day, it looks as if the fundamentals — an unpopular president, deep frustration with the status quo, and stubborn inflation — are ultimately going to define this midterm."

New must-read by @amyewalter: https://t.co/W6BbdCd2A4
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) October 26, 2022

URL:

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/fundamentals-favor-republicans

10868 reads

Comments

‘Going to be ugly’: All signs point to Republican landslide in Florida https://t.co/DyXKKtyw9e via @politico
— Cindy (@asheborn57) October 27, 2022

They sure convinced me, the article goes on and on and on with reasons

by artappraiser on Thu, 10/27/2022 - 10:30pm

Also, please, please don’t focus on the margin in SEN polls. Look at vote share and trend. In OH, Ryan stuck around 45-46, even when he was leading. Trend has being going Oz’s way, but can he close gap in 10 days? https://t.co/uKDYrkq0eq
— Amy Walter (@amyewalter) October 26, 2022

by artappraiser on Thu, 10/27/2022 - 11:10pm

'Don't boo. Vote': Obama seeks to energize Wisconsin Democrats in fiery Milwaukee speech https://t.co/CT26J1gyqb
— Journal Sentinel (@journalsentinel) October 30, 2022

by artappraiser on Sat, 10/29/2022 - 10:37pm

CBS poll predicts GOP House takeover

by Julia Mueller - @ TheHill.com, 10/30/22 2:35 PM ET

With the midterms just over a week away, the latest CBS News Battleground Tracker poll predicts a Republican takeover of the House with a 15-seat gain.

The poll forecasts Republicans will clock in at 228 seats to Democrats’ 207, a 21-seat difference, with a margin of error of 12 seats.

Still, predictions are difficult, as many races remain neck and neck with just over a week until Election Day, and a surge in voter turnout could give Democrats a shot at keeping control.

If November’s election sees a big turnout of young voters and voters of color — comparable to the surge seen in 2018’s midterms — the Battleground Tracker predicts Democrats hold on to the majority by a single seat, with 218 to Republicans’ 217.

If there’s an uptick in turnout among white voters without college degrees, however, Republicans could clinch an even bigger win, winning 238 seats and pushing Democrats to 197.

The Cook Political Report last week amended its outlook for the midterms, predicting Republicans will flip as many as 25 seats rather than the 10 to 20 expected earlier.

Crime and the economy have been polling as the top priorities for voters, beating out issues that Democrats have been emphasizing such as abortion access and protecting democracy.

Still, many Democrats say they are still confident they will hold the House. In an NBC News poll released last week, Democrats held a 1-point lead on a generic congressional ballot. [.....]

by artappraiser on Mon, 10/31/2022 - 2:50am

Nearly 2 in 3 American voters say crime will play a “major role” in deciding who they will vote for in next month’s midterm elections. https://t.co/jm8NSmDH8a
— Niskanen Center (@NiskanenCenter) October 31, 2022

by artappraiser on Mon, 10/31/2022 - 7:18pm

In spring 2021, I penned a piece in the WSJ Journal urging democrats to take control of the anti-crime message. They did not. Colossal mistake. Now, every Democratic campaign should run the following ad between now and election day...(½) https://t.co/HS3BE1BibX
— James Carville (@JamesCarville) October 23, 2022

The Republicans told us they were going to end a woman’s right to choose. We did not believe them. They did. Now, the Republicans are telling us if they get power, they will shut the govt down to slash social security and medicare. I believe them. You should too. (2/2)
— James Carville (@JamesCarville) October 23, 2022

by artappraiser on Tue, 11/01/2022 - 1:15pm

^ in case it doesn't come across clear tor everyone: Carville is saying that Dem talking points should now be: abortion and social security/medicare and shutting down the government. Precisely BECAUSE THEY FUCKED UP ON CRIME, can't do crime, it's too late, no one will believe you! Since nothing was done about the crime meme, the GOP has won crime, move on to these others. He even adds Biden doing this as an example:

https://t.co/IhYnJb2vO1
— James Carville (@JamesCarville) October 23, 2022

by artappraiser on Tue, 11/01/2022 - 3:27pm

dupe deleted

by artappraiser on Tue, 11/01/2022 - 1:10pm

Sister Souljah moments towards The Woke are seen as being few and far between

'They're Making Republicans': Joe Rogan Points to Democrats as Creator of Massive Red Wave

@ redstate.org, Oct. 31

...This year is a case study in what not to do in order to attract people to your cause. Beneath the Democrat’s inept handling of the economy, constant attempts to indoctrinate other people’s children, lack of care about increasing crime, refusal to secure the border, and more is a hard-to-hide contempt for the American people and their values....

by artappraiser on Tue, 11/01/2022 - 1:09pm

feeling real sorry for the voters of PA-12; looks like they have a choice between a woke lefty supported by "The Squad" and the "Justice Dems" and a right-wing Republican who happens to have the same name as their retiring Dem. rep:

Thrilled to welcome @AyannaPressley, @CoriBush, @IlhanMN, @JamaalBowmanNY & @RashidaTlaib for a fundraiser to deliver #PA12 for the people.

If you want Dems to end corporate price-gouging, defend abortion rights & deliver green union jobs, join us Sunday! https://t.co/46OXh4SoLe pic.twitter.com/5Y64x296jx
— Summer Lee (@SummerForPA) October 26, 2022

Let's clear up the confusion.

I'm running against an extreme anti-choice, pro-NRA Republican who wants to cut Social Security & Medicare.

He also shares a name with retiring Congressman, @USRepMikeDoyle.

Your vote in #PA12 is a vote for a far-right GOP majority or against it. pic.twitter.com/6bIcSlcdyd
— Summer Lee (@SummerForPA) October 26, 2022

by artappraiser on Tue, 11/01/2022 - 3:05pm

You can see the polls shifting toward Dr. Oz after last week's debate against John Fetterman.@MonmouthPoll's final 2022 Pennsylvania poll drops tomorrow. #PASen

https://t.co/hjReZ2eUBP pic.twitter.com/WByQIV8poo
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 1, 2022

Dr. Oz has given more of his own money to his Senate campaign this year than the @Phillies have paid Bryce Harper.https://t.co/xbcW02klAh
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 1, 2022

by artappraiser on Tue, 11/01/2022 - 6:09pm

Each party’s chances of winning the 36 governorships up for election, according to the latest analysis from @FiveThirtyEight: https://t.co/P5TieE0dRk pic.twitter.com/wHlTSC9VOL
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) November 1, 2022

by artappraiser on Tue, 11/01/2022 - 6:16pm

Currently a dead heat for the Senate & GOP favored to win the House -

Election Day is one week away. @FiveThirtyEight is forecasting the race to control the Senate and House. The latest analysis: https://t.co/pbTd13nm8z pic.twitter.com/zQPRfuHAQi
— ABC News (@ABC) November 1, 2022

by artappraiser on Tue, 11/01/2022 - 6:21pm

BREAKING: MSNBC reported that Wisconsin is seeing higher youth voter turnout now than in 2018. I'm going to say it again: young people are frustrated, angry, and we will *shatter* youth voter turnout records 9 days from now. Do not count us out. Just wait and see.
— Victor Shi (@Victorshi2020) October 30, 2022

by artappraiser on Wed, 11/02/2022 - 3:03pm

Wisconsin Races Remain Tight, Marquette Law School Poll Shows: https://t.co/soA4tDD3mM
— John McCormick (@McCormickJohn) November 2, 2022

A new Marquette University Law School Poll in Wisconsin finds Sen. Ron Johnson (R) just ahead of challenger Mandela Barnes (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 48%. https://t.co/i5ytIPr0f5
— Todd Kennedy (@pragpro) November 3, 2022

Marquette poll shows toss-up races between Tim Michels and Tony Evers for governor, Ron Johnson and Mandela Barnes for Senate https://t.co/tByPKaHjz2
— I see your bet and raise you the truth @CWilson (@CWilson55412266) November 3, 2022

by artappraiser on Wed, 11/02/2022 - 10:57pm

White Suburban Women Swing Toward Backing Republicans for Congress - WSJ https://t.co/WmoRQ0fuay
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) November 2, 2022

by artappraiser on Wed, 11/02/2022 - 10:53pm

Absolutely stunning movement among white suburban women. pic.twitter.com/sVjkvDaV23
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 1, 2022

White suburban women have 'significantly shifted' support from Dems to GOP, poll finds https://t.co/wegDQqsx5R
— Richard Christy (@Richard03000958) November 3, 2022

by artappraiser on Wed, 11/02/2022 - 11:03pm

In the final days of the 2022 campaign, Nevada is proving to be the most competitive state in the country.

Both Republicans and Democrats see Latino voters as critical to electoral success. https://t.co/2Tii4ViEqg
— NPR Politics (@nprpolitics) November 3, 2022

The GOP is coming for *all* of the Latino voters. In every possible jurisdiction. Rural, exurban, urban. From Hialeah to Vegas to Washington Heights.

Democrats can of course keep the Latinx.

In Texas, a Battle for Hispanic Voters Moves to the Cities https://t.co/chK93AFzgh
— EJ (@Ejmiller25) November 2, 2022

by artappraiser on Wed, 11/02/2022 - 11:12pm

Here's the bull case for Republicans on Tuesday based on a conversation with my alter ego, Nathan Redd.https://t.co/t1qgEurOck
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2022

A Worrisome Pattern Re-emerges in Seeking Response From Republicans https://t.co/NOgaNqT9cp
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 1, 2022

One thing I find especially interesting is the disparity between the national and state response rates, even the national and district polls just a week apart.
Nonresponse seemed pretty in-check -- and nothing like 2020 -- in all three of our national polls.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 1, 2022

Have response rates shifted? Or is this related to the same 'oh weird Dems doing so bad in blue states' thing, where there's just some pretty extreme variation in Democratic enthusiasm that happens to be cancelling out nationwide? Something to check if I get a chance.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 1, 2022

I was pretty paranoid about this and there’s definitely room for confusion. The voter file we used for polling still characterizes the 2010 CDs as the districts, with 2020 as “proposed.” https://t.co/CLK2vLXntJ
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 1, 2022

The cheap polls flooding the market right now... do not have good and representative samples. They could easily come closer to the final results! But not because they've figured out how to sample the population especially well https://t.co/OdNvk8pPxy
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 31, 2022

And I don't really see any evidence that the 'cheap' polls have fixed the Trump nonresponse problem, either.
Just as an example: the last Trafalgar poll in PA had Fetterman leading among whites and doing the same in-and-out of the Philadelphia DMA (ie: leading outside of Philly)
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 31, 2022

Our final* polls: the Senate is close, with some decent results for Democrats https://t.co/mEEUngwujY
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 31, 2022

And worth flagging that, unfortunately, this PA survey was largely conducted before the debate last week. So there's certainly a chance there's been movement since
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 31, 2022

White reg. Dems were 28% more likely to respond than white reg. Reps.
That's nothing like our national polling and quite a bit like 2020, when party quota/weighting was insufficient. That's a troubling sign for nonresponse biashttps://t.co/pOmfH1hLBX
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 31, 2022

NEW: Perhaps no place in the nation offers a more symbolic and consequential test of whether Democrats can claw back some of the white working-class vote than northeastern PA in 2022.

So that's where I went, and this is what I wrote.https://t.co/xTFT9y91yW
— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) October 30, 2022

by artappraiser on Wed, 11/02/2022 - 11:25pm

There are, quite simply, a lot of white voters without college degrees in America. Another Pew study found that such voters accounted for 42 percent of all voters in the 2020 presidential election. And, by some estimates, they could make up nearly half the vote in Pennsylvania this year.

from the Shane Goldmacher piece above, it's an important point.

Also, he has two interesting examples of Obama-Trump voters:

Both sides are targeting voters like Chris Tigue, a 39-year-old who runs a one-man painting company and lives in Dunmore, a town bordering Scranton known for its enormous landfill. Mr. Tigue, a registered Republican, has gone on a political journey that may seem uncommon in most of the country but is more familiar here.

He voted twice for Barack Obama. Then he voted twice for Donald Trump.

As Mr. Tigue sat outside Roosevelt Beer Garden, a watering hole where the portrait of Franklin D. Roosevelt on the wall was a reminder of the area’s Democratic heritage, he explained that Mr. Fetterman had won him back, not just because of his working class “curb appeal,” but because of his stances on abortion and medical cannabis.

Mr. Tigue said he was voting for Mr. Fetterman knowing that Mr. Fetterman would probably support the president’s economic agenda in the Senate, a prospect he called “a little scary.” But he said he was looking past that fact. “I’m focusing on the person,” he said.

Justin Taylor, the mayor of nearby Carbondale, is another Obama-Trump voter. Elected as a 25-year-old Democrat almost two decades ago, he endorsed Mr. Trump in 2020 and grew increasingly more Republican, just like the city he serves.

Today, he is adamantly opposed to Mr. Fetterman, calling him a liberal caricature and the kind of candidate the left thinks will appeal to the people of Carbondale, a shrinking town of under 10,000 people that was founded on anthracite coal. “I think, quite honestly, he is an empty Carhartt sweatshirt and the people who are working class in Pennsylvania see that,” Mr. Taylor said.

Mr. Taylor is still technically a registered Democrat, he said, but he feels judged by his own party. “The Democratic Party forces it down your throat,” he said, “and they make you a bigot, they make you a racist, they make you a homophobe if you don’t understand a concept, or you don’t 100 percent agree.”

Still, Mr. Taylor said he might not vote in the Senate race at all. Of his fellow Fetterman doubters, and of Oz skeptics, he asked, “Do they stay home? That becomes the big question.”

finally, this is a striking quote from the beginning of the article from the union guy working for Dems:

“It’s about cultural issues and social issues,” Mr. Papp lamented. “People don’t even care about their economics. They want to hate.”

not the least of which because it synchs with Pippa Norris' theory promoted by Ezra Klein (and a reminder, that's global, so spare us the 'dumb Americans' thing)

by artappraiser on Wed, 11/02/2022 - 11:52pm

The Gen Z high turnout thing:

.@dellavolpe on this last night: "I'm not sure if we're going to see a red wave, I'm not sure if we're going to see a blue wave - I'm confident we'll see a Gen Z wave next week." pic.twitter.com/4HTF67fA7s
— 11th Hour (@11thHour) November 3, 2022

by artappraiser on Thu, 11/03/2022 - 9:34am

Democrats Need to Know What Time It Is

A lesson and a warning from the Katie Hobbs Experience.

by TIM MILLER @ TheBulwark.com, OCTOBER 24

The stakes in Arizona’s governor race could not be higher.

The Republican nominee, Kari Lake, is the most zealous election denier this side of the South Florida Sigmaringen. She has indicated she would do everything in her power to tip the scales for Donald Trump in this swing state in 2024. She is a talented political performer, perhaps the most talented in the entire party. Her rise has been foreseeable for at least a year.

So you would expect that the Democrats would have had a plan for that. That they would be deploying their best and brightest to figure out how to deal with this clear and present danger.

If so, you would be sorely mistaken.

The Democratic nominee for governor in Arizona, Katie Hobbs, has been a dog’s breakfast served inside a dumpster fire. She’s turning over staff after getting sued by a past employee for discrimination. She is ducking debates and hiding from the press. She’s proven incapable of rhetorically taking the fight to her opponent, despite the extensive hit list to choose from. The liberal columnist for the local paper and co-chair of Biden’s campaign in Arizona have ripped her campaign. And the more prominent, popular Democrats who might aid her effort are M.I.A.

Not. Great. Bob.

Now, I want to be clear, this article is not a pre-mortem for Hobbs, who could still win. When I called her team to talk through this story, they pushed back aggressively, stating that Hobbs is “leading in fundraising, ads on the air, and in the polls”—pointing to private data showing their candidate in the lead. (As it stands, the 538 polling average has Lake ahead by 1 point.) A strategist for a Democratic Super PAC in the state went further, arguing that Lake’s refusal to say she will accept the election results might do her in.

I want to believe that a candidate’s refusal to say she will accept election results would be disqualifying for voters, but I’m not sure the evidence is there to support that belief. Here’s hoping that it is so, and that Hobbs will eke it out in blueing Arizona in spite of her campaign.

But here’s the deal: Bad candidates win and good candidates lose all the time.

Campaigns aren’t a contest like chess or tennis where [....]

by artappraiser on Thu, 11/03/2022 - 10:03am

538: Republicans Are Just A Normal Polling Error Away From A Landslide — Or Wiping Out

Average error of each race's polling average is 5.4 % points in US Senate elections & 6.3 % points in US House elections since 1998; if 22 errors are that size but consistently in same partisan direction, the range of outcomes is S 54D-54R, H227D-259Rhttps://t.co/axTENgFpou
— Matt Grossmann (@MattGrossmann) November 3, 2022

by artappraiser on Thu, 11/03/2022 - 1:31pm

New GA poll:
"Democrat Raphael Warnock with 49% support for re-election and Republican Herschel Walker with 47%. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Warnock reaches 49.5%, just shy of the 50% to avoid a runoff, while Walker follows with 47.6%."https://t.co/YcqjRYjI0h
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) November 3, 2022

by artappraiser on Thu, 11/03/2022 - 2:37pm

In the final weeks of midterms, Sean Hannity has aired more candidate interviews than all of CNN and MSNBC prime time — combined. https://t.co/V5xcyr44bR pic.twitter.com/aieLReKDQ2
— Media Matters (@mmfa) November 5, 2022

by artappraiser on Sat, 11/05/2022 - 10:39am

Nate Silver:

Generally likely voter polls haven't been great for Democrats, but not much of a likely vs. registered voter gap in the final ABC/WaPo and NBC polls. Quite possibly the difference between them keeping or losing the Senate. https://t.co/cS3SAvi2sQ
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2022

yesterday was getting real crabby

Well, that's one of the whole purposes of 538. Our pollster ratings track accuracy and improve pollster incentives to put out accurate numbers rather than just influencing the discourse. If Trafalgar et al have a bad night, that will lower their rating going forward. https://t.co/NQLeMoWim8
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2022

Life is a lot easier even you can just stick to vague pronoucements and innuendo instead of devoting 1000s of hours to developing a rigorous process that people can test against actual results.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2022

New rule: you're not allowed to criticize any pollster or polling aggregator unless you pre-register your own forecast. Use this thread to predict the following:

1—% chance of R Senate win
2—% of R House win
3—# of R Senate seats
4—# of R House ""
5—GA-Sen result
6—AZ-Gov result
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2022

by artappraiser on Sun, 11/06/2022 - 12:50pm

Longtime dem strategist @hilaryr: “I'm a loyal Democrat, but I am not happy. I just thinking we did not listen to voters in this election and I think we are going to have a bad night”
Notes that voters kept saying the economy was the number 1 issue
pic.twitter.com/Omh9pqtl50
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) November 6, 2022

“When voters tell you over and over and over again that why care mostly about the economy, listen to them! Stop talking about democracy being at stake”

She’s speaking for many Dems who have been privately fuming at the Wh, especially after the impromptu speech this week
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) November 6, 2022

“I just *think* we did not listen to voters in this election”
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) November 6, 2022

An alternative take—> https://t.co/GR3qP5OBYs
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) November 6, 2022

by artappraiser on Sun, 11/06/2022 - 10:41pm

Cook's final forecast for the Senate was not at all promising for the Dems:

ICYMI on Friday: we now view the range of Senate outcomes as being between D+0 and R+3.

Plus #WISen shifted to Lean R with just days to go.

Read @JessicaTaylor's full Senate overview here: https://t.co/cC9J2Gvvph
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) November 6, 2022

by artappraiser on Sun, 11/06/2022 - 11:01pm

A common complaint from Black men is that Black women are routinely rude and condescending, blaming the former for all their woes.

In that context, it's astounding to see Stacey Abrams resort to condescension & blame to explain her lack of appeal to Black male voters. https://t.co/YLaCG9ylec
— Clifton Duncan. (@cliftonaduncan) November 6, 2022

The last thing we need is intensification of long-standing tensions between Black men and women, yet the messaging has been very clear as to who "the problem" is if a White Republican is reelected governor of Georgia. https://t.co/9TqWCwN9pj
— Clifton Duncan. (@cliftonaduncan) November 6, 2022

BTW Clifton self-describes as an Artist. Heterodox Liberal. Erstwhile New Yorker. Smart-Ass. Gym Snob. Wildberry Skittle Stan. Drollery is my love language.

Mho, I tried to be openminded about Abrams but all I have seen is a lousy candidate and am at a loss to fathom what all the brouhaha about her is about. It's like she's playing a 'you go girl' character on a crummy made-for-BET romance movie, where she only relates to black women and is clueless about any other race or gender, almost a caricature.

by artappraiser on Mon, 11/07/2022 - 12:33am

He lives in Georgia:

Brian Kemp and Herschel Walker have done no joint campaign events. I wonder if this is a sign of the split ticket voting we will likely see on Tuesday.
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) November 7, 2022

Stacey Abrams and Rev Warnock have campaigned together, most recently at the rally with Obama. I don't know if they have the same calculation Kemp might have, but the same dynamic applies.
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) November 7, 2022

In a runoff, Kemp doesn't have to worry about vulnerable seats he needs in the state legislature where some of those districts probably vote Warnock but send a Republican to the state house. So yeah it's probably intentional and not a cpincidence. https://t.co/rrH8Gl5VQ7
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) November 7, 2022

by artappraiser on Mon, 11/07/2022 - 12:40am

great point:

This is true in the same sense that Democrats want to implement single payer health care. There are lawmakers in these big parties who want to do these things but the politics is so difficult it's unlikely. https://t.co/ln5EZtbMke
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) November 7, 2022

lots of voters don't take these kind of threats from the other side seriously - there's incredibly powerful lobbies and other entities that just won't let it happen - those using it as a campaign cudgel are just seen as being insincerely hyperbolic and treating voters like dummies. So saying "it's real, folks" is probably really counterproductive!

Is Bernie for socialized health care? Doh, so what, is not going to happen.

by artappraiser on Mon, 11/07/2022 - 12:54am

Crazy midterm stat: Big chase for tiny slice

By Erin Doherty @ Axios.com, 13 hrs. ago

The majority of voters said they made up their minds about who they are supporting in the midterm elections at least two months ago — before the whirlwind of late-state campaigning and big-dollar spending.

Why it matters: The final stretch of the midterm campaign has the opportunity to sway just a sliver of voters — but in a razor-thin battle for the Senate, that small slice of voters could push one party over the edge.

Driving the news: 68% of registered voters said they made up their minds to support specific candidates in Tuesday's elections before September and 10% said they made up their minds in September, per a new NBC News poll.

Meanwhile, 8% of registered voters said they made up their minds in October, 3% said in the last week and 2% said they decided in the last few days.

What to watch: 7% of registered voters said they still might change their mind, per the NBC News poll. [....]

by artappraiser on Mon, 11/07/2022 - 1:51am

Inshallah https://t.co/jm1u5qvhL9
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) November 7, 2022

by artappraiser on Mon, 11/07/2022 - 8:57am

Voting Lawsuits Soar Across US Before Midterm Electionshttps://t.co/RpOeLx2VKg via @eelarson & @madlinbmek
— Zoe Tillman (@ZoeTillman) November 7, 2022

by artappraiser on Mon, 11/07/2022 - 10:21am

Rut roh, gaming polls, flooding the zone?

What will they think of next.

A party which:

- asked, received Russia's help in 2016
- worked for months to de-legitimize 2020 election
- tried to illegally install Trump as President
- led a mob to attack the final vote count

Is capable of dropping some bucks to game the polling averages. 4/
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 5, 2022

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 11/07/2022 - 1:49pm

So much for neutrality

There it is: the owner of Twitter is siding with one political party over another. Openly. Publicly. https://t.co/X5DJsrlTKx
— Bradley P. Moss (@BradMossEsq) November 7, 2022

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 11/07/2022 - 2:42pm

Only if you like to consider what the owner thinks. Freedom of speech and all - got a problem with that?

by artappraiser on Tue, 11/08/2022 - 1:18pm

Destroying Twitter's brand, its openness? Yeah, I've got a problem with that.
I mean, sure, he bought it, he can fuck it up. In the end it's his money,
and if Jack couldn't figure out a better way, them's the choices
(not that someone overpayng $20bill for his platform in trouble is something he'll pass up.
Despite some crap service management at times, overall Twitter's been quite useful for politics.
But Elon feels like he's taking it back down the learning curve to that of maybe 10 years ago.
Couldn't a newbie look a bit before jumping in with 2 left feet?

by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 11/08/2022 - 3:54pm

He's warning his followers not to fall for it and reminding them how deluded they are:

At least one progressive group *already sent out* its analysis of why Democrats lost the midterms because they weren’t progressive enough.
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) November 8, 2022

(Which makes me wonder what Hal C. is writing today. A little bit, but not enough to seek it out....)

by artappraiser on Tue, 11/08/2022 - 1:36pm

Carl (who self-describes as "FDR/LBJ/Obama free speech low-rent liberal professor. Sanity, nuance, courtesy, whimsy, no bigotry. Essays at http://historyboomer.substack.com.") -

I don’t mind someone being partisan—I’m medium partisan myself—but when you forget the other side is human and has reasons for their voting choices that require some effort and empathy to grasp, I think you’ve gone astray.
— Carl (@HistoryBoomer) November 8, 2022

by artappraiser on Tue, 11/08/2022 - 2:19pm

I have an inkling Carl is being sarcastic here:

Another victory for white supremacy. pic.twitter.com/aNyO0TZEDa
— Carl (@HistoryBoomer) November 9, 2022

by artappraiser on Tue, 11/08/2022 - 9:05pm

See this is what happens — the exit polls always underrate the number of non-college whites.

Then because they are benchmarked to the actual outcome, they exaggerate GOP vote share within each demographic to compensate for undersampling the most conservative group. https://t.co/RxkYhoiubF
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) November 9, 2022

by artappraiser on Tue, 11/08/2022 - 8:08pm

Bolduc even/slight lead in polls. Loses by over 10%.

No flooding the polls, eh?

New Hampshire'da oyların %64'ü sayıldı ve Demokrat aday yarışı kazandı.
Demokrat Maggie Hasan: %54.8
Cumhuriyetçi Don Bolduc: %43.2

Cumhuriyetçiler, New Hampshire'da beklenenden düşük oy aldı. pic.twitter.com/Pw246BQBC4
— serbestiyet (@serbestiyetweb) November 9, 2022

by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 11/09/2022 - 12:38am

BREAKING: Democrat John Fetterman wins U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, NBC News projects. https://t.co/g7sHkoeQdl pic.twitter.com/tTbuWg6WQ8
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) November 9, 2022

edit to add:

It's official. I will be the next U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania.

We bet on the people of Pennsylvania - and you didn’t let us down

And I won’t let you down. Thank you.
— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) November 9, 2022

by artappraiser on Wed, 11/09/2022 - 1:12am

The Wisconsin Senate race is suddenly getting very, very interesting again. 10% of votes are left to be counted, Barnes (D) is only down by 1.4%, and it seems most of the remaining votes are in heavily Democratic Milwaukee. https://t.co/rJIFA2wAV6
— Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) November 9, 2022

by artappraiser on Wed, 11/09/2022 - 1:15am

not purporting to know for sure and I fully admit I haven't paid any attention to exit polls yet, still, I just thought of this promise which did get a lot of play on social media:

Senator Lindsey Graham made it clear: Republicans want a national ban on abortion. But if we elect two more Democratic senators and keep control of the House, we will codify Roe v. Wade. pic.twitter.com/UNFw63oV9k
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) November 4, 2022

by artappraiser on Wed, 11/09/2022 - 1:26am

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