Michael Maiello's picture

    "Fight Your Way Out"

    I'm extremely impressed that it was the President's decision for the Pentagon to use more than 2 helipcopters for the Bin Laden mission, in case something happened to one of the vehicles.  "I don’t want you to plan for an option that doesn’t allow you to fight your way out,” he said.

    I always worry about writing about or even debating military topics because I feel like I don't know what I'm talking about.  My grandfathers on boths sides fought in World War II and my father and step-father were both called for the Vietnam Draft, but didn't have to fight.  That makes me the first male in my family (on three sides, actually) who has never even had to consider the possibility of fighting in a war, much less actually fighting in one.  I would only ever have been the position of having to fight a war if I had signed up for the military, something I never in my life seriously considered doing.  I try to keep that in mind when these topics come up and that can make me extremely critical of "liberal interventionist" type thinkers.  It's not that I thought stopping the Rwandan genocide would be a bad thing, it's that I don't feel comfortable telling an enlistee with children at home to go do it for me, knowing they might not come back.

    Besides, I think we should resolve international conflicts with guerilla theatre.

    I'm about as effete a liberal as you'll find and I don't apologize for it.

    Obama, who definitely had other interests than military service, has proved that an open-minded and intelligent individual can be an effective Commander in Chief.  He's been willing to listen, and I think that counts for a lot of his successes, but he's also been willing to lead.

    In this case he made an important, tactical call.  It was a simple one, on the surface -- a spare helicopter seems like a great idea, especially when we know that one crashed.  But I'm sure there were all sorts of well reasoned and well meaning objections.  Four is tougher to coordinate than two.  Four are easier to spot than two.  Fewer people in harm's way means fewer at risk.  That's just what I can think of.  I'm sure the planners at the Pentagon didn't propose two for no good reason.

    But Obama made his decision and he was right.  The non-expert, with access to information, access to advice and the willingness to listen and consider, can think these issues through and come to the right decision.

    I certainly stick by humility as the guiding principle in matters of war.  It's not my life.  But there's certainly no reason, any more, to be cowed by the lack of experience argument and I'd really like to hear from the folks back in 2008 who criticized Obama on this very issue.

    Us non veterans can figure this stuff out.  But it takes a curious mind.

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    I understood there were 2 helos used in the raid. One became damaged beyond repair so everyone piled into the other once the raid was finalized and headed for parts unknown. But there's some interesting tidbits to chew on here.

    First was one helo was able to carry all souls from the disabled helos plus the extra body. Helo crewchiefs have to pay strict attention to the weight of all passengers and gear (weight to lift ratio thingy). Too much and the helo might have problems lifting off or maintaining altitude. And since the raid was nestled in a mountainous region, weight was a critical factor. It's as if they planned on loosing a helo...interesting development.

    So if they were planning on loosing a helo, then there must have been something in the compound that could do some serious damage to a helo. Perhaps the landing area was fortified with shoulder launched missiles, grenade launchers, grenades and so forth. Perhaps they figured if those inside the compound had a chance to react before the Seals could neutralize the landing area they might end up sacrificing a helo in the process. Better to leave a calling card of your visit rather than the commandos of the raid for the locals to capture, torture and hold for ransom or kill out of revenge.

    What really sticks out is the operation was planned...nothing off-the-cuff. The Seals were dead sure of their objective and all obstacles they should expect to encounter and neutralize stat. Speed and accuracy were their weapons of choice...bullets were the party favors. But what really is astounding was the calmness of the people in Washington moving the pawns to put the King in checkmate...very cold and calculating. And that's something the wanna-be terrorist should pay strict attention too. The cowboy is gone replaced by a Sheriff who knows how to use the tools he has at his disposal to achieve the results he desires.


    The cowboy is gone replaced by a Sheriff who knows how to use the tools he has at his disposal to achieve the results he desires.

    Well put.

    The number of helicopters was not as big a decision as what the US does if Pakistan scrambles jet aircraft to intercept and force down the choppers, or shoot them down in Pakistani territory. I would guess US fighter jets were in the air just across the border if such an eventuality developed, with orders to down hostile aircraft that do not disengage.

    The hardest decision was to start the operation, what if the guys inside were just opium dealers or fruit sellers, and the SEALS killed a couple of them? The decision shows Obama has proven he can answer that 2AM call, and any 'dithering' he does is well worth it.


    I think the Paki's were well informed. Obama is giving as much elbow room sa they need to make it look as if we pulled  fast one on them.


    Nonsense. I don't think the Pk's were informed at all, frankly such a scenario doesn't make any sense whatsoever. You have got to be kidding if you believe after 10 years in Afghanistan the US military and the Obama administration 'trust' either Afghans or Paki's with the lives and the mission of US special forces operating cross border. It's nuts. The US knows some Paki would immediately get the word to the target, who would scoot and avoid capture.

    If the Paki's wanted to get rid of Bin Laden for their own or US reasons and to get more $$$ aid, they could have done him in themselves without all the embarrassment of a US violation of their sovereignty. Then burned his body in the compound trash.The Paki's had been claiming he was dead or not in Pak anyway, so the scenario that occurred shows they are either liars or incompetent for chrissakes.

    If the Paks did him in on their own and in secret (telling the CIA only) Congressional leaders would be informed in secret session, then be giving them more aid, instead of calling for an end to aid. The guy was there for years for crying out loud, the Paks had no intention of doing anything.  The Pak's were as sure as Bin Laden was that he was beyond the reach of the US - which was true under Bush - not true under Obama.

    Reality check - It was hard enough to get one CIA guy released after he killed 2 robbers in Pak, the Pakis would have loved to capture or detain two whole helicopters full of SEALS on a mission inside their country.  It would give them the chance to extort and blackmail which is their usual mode of operation.  Bargain for more billions or reduce Obama demands for Pak help with other terrorist leaders like Mullah Omar or the Haqquani Taliban.

    Picture 79 US troops blindfolded in Pak custody being paraded by jubilant Pak police in Pakistan, as the ISI negotiates for more US money and concessions from the US. Picture Robert Gates testifying before Congress saying 'Well we thought it was a good idea to just tell the ISI we were going to violate their sovereignty to get Bin Laden, a man they had put up in a million dollar compound in a military district, but we were really surprised he wasn't there when the SEALS landed".


    I think you are pretty far off-base. It is considerably less likely Pakistan didn't know about our raid (and support it to some degree) than it is they didn't know about Bin Laden's presence.

    You really think a squad of helicopters can fly undetected into a city with at least one military base (and known air-defenses), drop JSOC troops a mile from the Pakistani military barracks for a a 40 minute firefight (that includes the destruction of a helicopter), collect the bodies and evidence and then leave .... all undetected?

    If this were really the case, those Pakistanis must not only be incompetent - they must also be deaf and blind.


    It is considerably less likely Pakistan didn't know about our raid (and support it to some degree) than it is they didn't know about Bin Laden's presence.

    I think it's also worth considering the joint probabilities. I.e., what are the odds that they knew about bin Laden's presence, but didn't know about our raid? What are the odds they knew about neither? (The latter seems more likely to me than the former.) What are the odds that they knew about both? What are the odds they knew about the raid and didn't already know about is presence? (I would find that unlikely, as well.)

    I'd argue that if they did already know about his presence, then they probably told us and we returned the favor in order to keep them from being alarmed by the presence of our helicopters. If they didn't already know about his presence, then it seems reasonable that we could also sneak some helicopters past them. Of course, I know nothing about military operations, so [insert disclaimer here].


    Or maybe the U.S. didn't know Osama was there but figured it was somebody important, and bin Laden somehow got wind of the planned raid and warned the ISI, hoping they would feed the U.S. false information long enough for him to escape. But the ISI concluded the U.S. was just testing them, so they told the U.S., "Hey, we finally located bin Laden!" The U.S. figured the ISI was lying, but played along so the Pakistanis wouldn't realize they were onto them. So the raid went down, and the SEALS were all, "Holy crap, we got bin Laden!" And bin Laden was all, "Holy crap, they got me!" And the ISI was all, "Our bad!" I think that might be remotely possible.


    I think you nailed it!


    Congratulations, join the club KGB999, the Dagblog Pak Gave Us Bin Laden on a Silver Platter Club!

    I don't suppose that if the Pak's were going to 'hand him over' that you can tell me why we didn't just drive up in a truck to pick him up, with a big red bow tied around him? Why the drama, the 79 SEALS, and the choppers at night? The dumb level of many here seems to know no bounds.

    Thank goodness the Obama administration and our military are not as naive at trusting the lying bastards in PAK with the lives of our servicemen, as you apparently would do. I would remind you the distance cross border is only 70 miles or so, a 15-20 minute ride, and there are choppers in the air frequently in a military district.


    I know very little about Pakistan, but what I've gathered is that it doesn't necessarily make sense to think of them as an organized whole. There are factions in the government at odds with other factions. It's possible that one faction gave us this Intel, and we coordinated in a limited manner with that faction in order to get our helicopters safely to target. It's also possible that we didn't get any Intel from them nor give them any, and that our stealthy helicopters are just that stealthy. I don't think it's idiotic to wonder just how stealthy helicopters can be, though.


    Unfortunately, many of the "How Obama did it" narratives have already kind of fallen under the weight of ... well, much of what they told us in the initial reporting being ... well, inaccurate.

    Forgive me if I don't go weak in the knees over the latest "no, no ... this is how it REALLY happened" story.


    Although - Yes. Our constitution is pretty clear that civilians should be issuing the commands carried out by our military ... I imagine for exactly the sensibilities you list.


    I may be Obama's strongest supporter here but even I don't believe a word of that. Reminds me of Mary McCarthy's comment about Lillian Helmann : "Every word's a lie including if, and and but


    Fortunately, he didn't have to make the decision at 3 am. He's still not ready for that.


    What? What do you mean?

    I took it as a joke.


    No, no, Genghis is right.  These decisions were all clearly made in the afternoon.


    Over a cup of herbal tea.


    Trump/Busey 2012


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