Michael Maiello's picture

    The Greek Mistake

    A few minutes ago, the Greek parliament voted in favor of the austerity plan being pushed on its governments by the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission.  The result will be falling living standards in Greece, lower growth (if not outright recession) and much suffering in general.  But, Greece will receive the next batch of bailout payments that will help the country stay current on its outstanding debts.

    In my column for The Daily today, I mused about the wimpiness of Greece's Socialist majority party and compared its tactics for dealing with the IMF to Republican tactics when negotiating the debt ceiling.  When the whole debt ceiling debate started, really back at the start of the year, my initial reaction was that Obama should insist on a clean vote with no conditions whatsoever in the belief that the Republicans would never push things so far as to cause any sort of default, temporary or otherwise.  Republicans, I thought, were basically threatening the world with a doomsday device that would smite them as well as their opponents and they would never pull the trigger.

    The Republicans have basically convinced Obama and the Democrats that they are, in fact, insane enought to set off their bomb, whether or not they get vaporized.  They even floated the amazing notion, refuted by investors, economists and ratings agencies, that a little debt default won't cause much harm.  The argument is akin to a James Bond villain insisting that there will be no harm done if he blows up the moon so, why not?  How do you negotiate with that?  The answer is that you wind up making concessions, which is what Obama and the Democrats are doing right now.  Time will tell how palatable those concessions are, but concessions have been made.  You have to admire Republicans tactics here.

    You also have to wonder why Greece didn't use them when negotiating with the E.U.  Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has been too accomodating.  He should have told the E.U. that his responsibility is to ensure rising living standards for his people, not to worry about bank failures in Spain or France.  He should have announced his intention to default in an orderly way with the lightest losses going to those lenders who step up first to either forgive principal or extend maturity of the debt.  He should have basically said something like "anyone who steps up by Friday loses 5%.  Anyone who refuses a haircut doesn't get paid at all."

    Yes, there would be consequences to that but it's sure better than the result -- Greece has made all of the concessions while its lenders have made none.  Tomorrow, Greece's parliament has a second vote on how to implement the approved austerity.  That's an opportunity for the Greek socialists to get some courage and defy the E.U. a bit.  If they keep rolling over like they have, Greece's people should consider replacing the lot of them.

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    The Republicans have basically convinced Obama and the Democrats that they are, in fact, insane enought to set off their bomb, whether or not they get vaporized.

    Have they? I'm not so sure about that. They haven't obtained the concessions that they're looking for, which suggests that the Dems are so far willing to call the bluff.

    I, for one, am still utterly confessed that it's a bluff. Not by all of them. There are right-wingers who are that crazy, but there are plenty of Republicans who aren't, more than enough to give Democrats a majority.

    They won't do it until they have to, of course, and they we've still got some time before the brink. But the fact that they have not come to an agreement yet in no way demonstrates that they'll actually go through with it. The signal that they're ready to break will be when they start fighting internally.


    PS Ironic that the Socialist Party supports austerity while the center-right New Democracy--which was at the wheel when Greece crashed--is anti-austerity.


    Yeah. Greek politics is just plain weird.  Though I don't think the Greek socialists so much "support austerity" as they have been cowed by the E.U. into accepting it.The New Democracy types might be more nationalist about it.  They also might be, like the Republicans, unwilling to do anything that will help their opponents locally.

    I still believe the Republicans are bluffing too.  But I think they're willing to get very, very close to the line and are maybe willing to go over it for a couple of days.  This thing I posted to our news section says that Geithner's deadline is really more of a range (aug 2-Aug 9) so I could see the Republicans trying to hold out past August 2nd in an attempt to get all they can.

    It's also possible, and I hope that the result is that the Republicans get some sort of face saving "$4 trillion in cuts over the next 10 years" that, when we look at the details, is all smoke and mirrors and doesn't bother us much.  Isn't that what happened during the shutdown debate?


    What does very, very close mean in this context? In true brinkmanship negotiations, the edge is razor. You can plummet off that cliff in an instant, so the other guy has to negotiate on his gut feeling that you will or won't do it.

    But the debt ceiling isn't like that. As we get closer to the edge, all sorts of alarm bells will start going off--stock market declines, devaluation of the dollar, international condemnation, nervous business leaders calling their reps--all before we're even close to truly defaulting.

    Now if there were one really brilliant or really crazy Republican running the show, maybe he could pull it off and take it all they way to the bitter end. But there isn't. Instead there are a bunch of self-interested politicians who are willing to play the game as long as they can, but when the alarms go off, they will sweat harder than anyone else because they know that if they really go over the edge, their careers will be finished. Some of those folks will break ranks, and it won't take many to get a majority.


    I think you're right.  But then, why are the Democrats conceding anything?  Or maybe they're not and it's all just concessions for show?  I suppose one problem the Democrats have is public opinion in the country generally.  People don't really understand what the debt limit is, how it works or what it does.  If they did, raising it wouldn't be such an unpopular move.


    As I've argued, I don't think that the Democrats should concede anything. The negotiations are all pretty murky, so it's not clear whether they have. The leadership may just want to put on a show of flexibility to make the Republicans look like the assholes.

    In any case, I don't think that Democrats need to waste their political capital on convincing voters of the necessity of the bill, and it would be a bad idea to identify the party as champions of raising the debt ceiling (which any attempt to sell the bill to the public would invariably do as the difference between want-to and have-to get lost in nuanceville). Democrats just need to sit tight and let the Republicans to sweat it out.


    I think the dynamic in Europe is that the left parties have traditionally been the most pan-European pro-EU and pro-Euro.  And that does indeed makes sense given their progressive socialist and universalist outlook.   The right inclines more toward nationalism and national sovereignty, and against centralization.   The left is trying to hang on to save the European dream, which is facing a dire crisis and threat, even though this means making very unpleasant and ugly deals with the creditors who have them in a lock.

    The right wingers are exploiting the crisis, under the guise of a new-found compassion for Europe's downtrodden and recession-slammed masses, as a way to encourage the periphery countries to ditch the Euro.  They hope the new, populist Euro-skepticism coming from the left can be used as an additional hammer to smash the Euro, and maybe the EU.

    But the status quo and may be unsustainable.  What the European left needs to decide is whether they are prepared ot use this crisis as a way of pushing for even more centralization in the direction of something closer to a "United States of Europe", capable of conducting a comprehensive fiscal and monetary policy with centralized political and currency sovereignty, or whether they want the right wing to succeed in pulling Europe apart as the Greeks, Irish and others are forced to reclaim their sovereignty as the only way of saving thier prosperity.


    Interesting. Bit of a Catch-22 for the Euro-philes. If the EU keeps pressing austerity, it will push the suffering Greeks and Irish towards the nationalists. But if the rich countries bail them out, it will push their own citizens towards the nationalists.


    I think this is why a tangible, attainable and shared American dream is important.  The EU shares a currency but not a common interest.  The best monetary policy for Greece is not the best monetary policy for Germany.  But absent the shared American ethos, wouldn't the same fissures erupt between, say, California and Michigan?


    Like most people, I'm not an expert on European and global economies.  But it seems to me that Greece would have a hard time ensuring a rising standard of living if banks in France and Spain start failing.  In fact it would seem that this might lead to a situation where the standard of living for those in Greece could become worse than under the austerity measures.  It is the same argument for bailing out the banks/wall street here in this country.  If one is looking for short-term improvement (or at least things economically not to get worse) then one has to keep the banks from suffering.  The little guy is going to suffer the most regardless of which path one takes, and the question is which is going to cause the least amount of short-term suffering.


    Good points, AT.  My take is this:  If banks in Spain and France start failing because of the declining value of the Greek debt they hold, the EU can bail out those banks directly.  I'm not making the "let them fail" argument here.  I'm making the argument that if somebody is responsible for the solvency of these banks, it's the European Commission, not the youth of Athens.  Forcing Greece into an austerity budget is a way of putting the solvency of those banks on the backs of ordinary Greek citizens.  But really, it's the EU's problem.


    In case your interested, my opinion here is very close to Barry Ritholtz's.  He says it's not the Greek people or government being bailed out by austerity by Greece's creditors.  I take it a syep further to argue that if you want to bail out Greece's creditors, do it directly and leave the Greek people out of it.


    You are right on, the money


    It seems to me a more powerful European central banking authority and political union could nationalize at-risk banks, give haircuts to a bunch of the shareholders and creditors, and yet keep the credit and payment system flowing with an infusion of Euros and fiscal response.  The only reason there are serious sovereign debt crises in Europe is because countries control their own budgets but don't control their own monetary policies.  There is no effective means for debt restructuring and writeoffs.


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