Michael Maiello's picture

    Obama Wants It (Social Security Cuts and Tax Increases On The Middle Class)

    I think Charles Pierce is very persuasive on this point.  We Obama supporters generally take solace in the idea that when Obama is up to something we don't like that he doesn't really mean it.  Chaining Social Security benefit increases and tax brackets to a lower measure of inflation (which means cutting benefits and raising taxes without having to say either explicitly) gets to be "no his ideal budget."  Health care without a public option?  We all know he'd have preferred a public option, right?  Or course he wanted a bigger stimulus and of course he wanted to hold the bankers responsible for the financial crisis and of course he wanted to save people's homes from foreclosure.  Right?

    But this is disturbing, as Pierce says:

    "We're not going to have the White House forever, folks. If he doesn't do this, Paul Ryan is going to do it for us in a few years," said a longtime Obama aide, referring to the 2012 Republican vice presidential candidate who proposed a sweeping overhaul of Medicare that would replace some benefits with vouchers."

    What is that all about?  I guess we're not planning for a Democratic victory in 2016?  Do we think that if Obama doesn't cut Social Security now, the Republicans will win the White House next time around?  Why would we think that?

    It's an interesting thing to ponder.  If we take that longtime Obama aide's explanation at face value, then the belief has to be that a failure to cut Social Security benefits right now will lead to a financial crisis for which Democrats will be blamed.  That's the only plausible logic behind this argument -- the honest belief that not doing this will cause a crisis of such magnitude that it will change public opinion so markedly that it will make it likely that the Republicans will win the White House in 2016.

    How else can we explain it?

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    Comments

    Have you personally read it, the budget? Let's go over it a bit and see if you still believe what Charles Pierce says, but he has deliberately by what I can tell from what you've written twisted the President's budget proposal.

    The Chained CPI proposal itself is a bit confusing, especially to just a regular person like myself, but I think I have a handle on some of it, since I've actually read the document at the whitehouse website. The Chained CPI proposal is contingent on two things; 1. it will be rescinded if the Republicans do not agree to a "package that includes substantial revenue raised through tax reform." And 2. it will have to be "coupled with measures to protect the vulnerable and avoid increasing poverty and hardship."

    Protections for the vulnerable are called benefit enhancements. Benefit enhancements are somewhat fuzzy in the document, but  they begin around the age of 76, they max out at 85, and then if you actually make it to 95 another benefit enhancement kicks in. Yes benefits are going to be cut at the lower level, but there are protections in place, the benefit enhancements.

    Do I agree that it is bad politics to try to make a deal with Republicans by throwing the chained CPI proposal in there, I don't know I think he is trying to get them to come to the table, to do their  job, and they are still recalcitrant asses who simply refuse to not just compromise but have real proposals on the table, of which privatizing Social Security is not a real proposal, and their endless attempts to repeal PPACA, not real, as waste of time, yet they do that over proposing and attempting to pass a legitimate budget.

    Sequestration has hit us  personally, but I still believe that we should be cutting the Dept of Defense budgets, I think we should reassess our reliance on the cost-plus aspects of private defense contractors.  However, I don't see that the Chained CPI proposal is as dire as the professional "Freak Out about Every little thing" community. Because it is a proposal, and nothing in Washington is hard and fast and until something is passed the proposal remains that, just a proposal.

    But buried within that Chained CPI proposal is this, the proposal does insist that the wealthy pay more, and partly that we can't get the Republicans to do what they don't want to do. They want this change in the Consumer Price Index.  That isn't a good thing, and the proposal tries to scuttle that particular Republican proposal.

    Sure does it make sense to deal with our budget problems by raising the highest marginal tax rate substantially, raising the capital gains tax, clamping down on corporate profits, penalizing those businesses who move their profits offshore, and of course raising the ceiling on the Social Security tax.  But without Republicans even playing the game, because they are not, and none of this in the end is even up to the president. Without Republican cooperation we get nothing, nothing gets done, and you see what we get... nothing, just them in their constant mode of saying NO. They aren't even bothering to appear to be negotiating, they simply say, our way or no way. And then we end up here, right where we are, with nothing being done. 

    PS: Let's not go over the single payer meme again, okay, it's a old discussion where most people don't know what they are talking about, (Pierce, You, Everyone at FDL, KOS, all the places where the knownothings purport to know something, and I am just plain tired of it, tired of the "but everyone wanted it" which literally has nothing to do with what we got, if everyone wanted it as you state, then people need to quit electing the Louie Gohmerts of the world, but they don't.   You want to place blame for the reason we couldn't even get a public option light... Max Baucus is responsible for that, he is a Democrat and Montanans will continue to reelect the guy even though he is owned by insurance companies. If Montana's ex-governor wants to, (Schweitzer) he could take Baucus down, but he is the only guy in Montana who can do that, and the question is, will he?

    What we can be sure of is that the President's proposal will not be accepted by the R's in the House, we can be sure that nothing will change, sequester will be with us permanently. There seem to be no carrots that bring Republicans to the table.  So here we are... the same place we began, waiting for Republicans to do something, to bring something to the table and all they say is, they either get their entire package or the country gets nothing. And here we are still harping on the President, who at least made a budget proposal, have the R's done this yet? No, no they have not and that is their primary job in the house to deal with taxes, revenues and running the country.

    Sorry I went on so long... I'd better go get ready for work. But thanks for letting me vent, right here on your blog.


    It's not a vent, TMac, these are very cogent arguments.

    And, yes, I agree with you that Obama has also had to deal with not only Republican instransigence, which was to be expected, but by the Baucii and Nelsons of the world.  That said:

    "The Chained CPI proposal itself is a bit confusing, especially to just a regular person like myself, but I think I have a handle on some of it, since I've actually read the document at the whitehouse website. The Chained CPI proposal is contingent on two things; 1. it will be rescinded if the Republicans do not agree to a "package that includes substantial revenue raised through tax reform." And 2. it will have to be "coupled with measures to protect the vulnerable and avoid increasing poverty and hardship."

    Point 1:  It does Social Security recipients and working Americans who make under $100,000 a year precious little good to trade likely income tax increases during their working years and benefit cuts during their retirement years for higher taxes on wealthier people.  Higher taxes on wealthier people make sense as part of the overall budget, but they do not directly improve the lives of working people.  A family with around the median income is making a big mistake if they give something up in exchange for raising Mitt Romney's taxes.

    Point 2: While it is smart to have protections when making these cuts, you don't need the protections if you just... don't cut future benefits.  Isn't this the equivalent of shoving somebody off of a boat and then throwing them a life preserver?


    Maybe 3/4 of a life preserver - just enough, no more.


    Pointe 1 answer: True, except that we also need those taxes increased. Families aren't really giving up anything at this point, because the budget isn't supposed to come from the President, the budget is supposed to come from the House, and the President basically lobbies for the things he would like to see included. That is in Article One of the Constitution. All spending bills originate in the House, all of them, not some, not a few, all. And I do want Mitt Romney's taxes raised, and I want his massive IRA taxed. And it seems the Republicans have agreed that they don't want to balance the budget on the backs of senior citizens... LOL, even though they've been looking to privatize Social Security. But because this President proposed the chained CPI, the Rethugs are against it suddenly.. also a large LOL, but they are trapped. Good.

    2. No benefits have been cut, because no budget has been passed by the House, where the budget is supposed to ORIGINATE, (that's trollish of me I know), but it's my main point here, Article 1 Section 7: All Bills for raising Revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives; but the Senate may propose or concur with Amendments as on other Bills.

    No mention of the President here at all. None. His budget proposals are meaningless except he got the Republicans to reject their own chained-cpi wet dream.  So why am I to worry and why would I fret about something that isn't going to happen.

    The thing that bothers me is,  congress never gets their act together, never, ever, they don't care about the country. And by blaming the President for something that isn't going to happen you are absolving congress of their Constitutional responsibility to propose and pass a budget.


    Oh sure blame Bauchus.Why didnt Obama lean hard on the leaders and remove Bauchus? Or was Bauchus to be the scapegoat for what Obama really wanted? It's totally unacceptable, when an electorate votes for Democrats and the Committe Chair person is a traitor, and then people tell me, theres nothing we can do about it? (Should we  have had Don Corleone make him an offer, he couldnt refuse?).  Who allowed the Republican lite to control the leash on the most significant healthcare legislation? If the admiinistration knew Bauchus would block, why bring forth half assed measures, no one would like and then lose the mid term election for having lost your base ? One gets the strong feeling that the Democrats are arrogant to believe, they have the suckers right where they want them, because where else are they going to go. Obama stands for the proposition, the center is as far left as he will go, to counter outright movement to the right.   Should we kiss his ... for being more kind than the republicans would have been to us? It's obvious were doomed, the leadership of the Democratic party will only support republican lite candidates. People like Bauchus who wasnt leaned on hard or removed at the crucial time. America is held hostage, either vote for a Democrat(Republican lite) or Republican.  The Capitalists will not allow a Social leaning candidate, the capitalists will not prosecute a bankster.The capitalists own the media. If the capitalists want to attack SS and medicare  they will get away with it, because what can you do about it; slave?  Instead we get "Oh please Mr, Capitalist give us background checks" ....Whats next; combine voting registration with gun registration? Those opposed to Right wing ideology or  those tired of a government run for the benefit of the plutocracy capitalists, are unfit to own guns? They might rebel, if they tire of getting screwed ?


    I waded through all the firebagging on Kos too, looking for comments that knew what they were talking about.  One thing that is happening here in Florida is the representatives in Washington is hearing from retirees.  They are contacting the Republicans and Democrats.  This is a good thing because once they get started on a complaint they add all the other stuff they are not happy with in the rant.  Most of these people are not ideologs, just pragmatic in their thinking.  With the climate in Washington, there is lots for them to rant about and they want the legislature to return back to working.  They want fairness.  Also, they are making it clear they will not stand for any kinds of cuts, roll backs or increases in age eligibility used to bargain for tax increases on the wealthy.  This is a issue that has no party loyalty because it is the 3rd rail of politics.  I am with you T-Mac,  I don't see the President's budget proposal going very far.  The sequester is not permanent because it is not sustainable over time and will have to be fixed. 


    Excellent info Momoe. Thanks, retirees are often very well organized which is great! They have a good amount of power and pressuring their representatives will surely help.


    That sure is a whole lotta' words to get at one truth: Obama is negotiating against himself, again.

    We've seen this act before, but I will indulge your insistence that we not "go over that single-payer meme again, okay" because SOME of us "don't know what we are talking about."

    There is only one guy in Washington who could put the so-called "political third rail" of Social Security and Medicare on the table for discussion without causing all the "real liberals" to get up in arms in its defense. Here's your proof.

    Obama does very well playing the script that's written for him. Maiello and Pierce (as always, it seems) pretty well nail it.


    And BTW: The whole notion that we must surrender on principles and policy to win elections is not only ludicrous, but extremely insulting and counter-productive on its face. It explains more how we have gotten into this predicament with the lunatics running the asylum than it offers any kind of a sane prescription for the future.


    Just for the sake of clarity. Maiello posted, "Health care without a public option?  We all know he'd have preferred a public option, right?"

    tmc posted, "Let's not go over the single payer meme again, okay, it's a old discussion where most people don't know what they are talking about, (Pierce, You, Everyone at FDL, KOS, all the places where the knownothings purport to know something, and I am just plain tired of it"

    Look, if you don't know the difference between a public option and single payer you weren't paying very much attention to the health care debate. I've seen this confusion a few times here at dag and yes, I'm tired of it. If you're going to go off on a rant and call people know nothings you really should know the difference.


    ..the honest belief that not doing this will cause a crisis of such magnitude that it will change public opinion so markedly that it will make it likely that the Republicans will win the White House in 2016.

    'They' didn't even need a crisis to garner 61 million votes for Romney, the privatize Social Security and hand it to Wall Street Party, and the voucherize Medicare candidate. During the crisis of 2008, caused by lax regulation of Wall Street and the finance sector, the Party in power, the one that waves the banner of 'free markets' and no regulation, got 60 million votes.

    The question is not what Obama 'wants' it's what do the voters want. It's what can the voters be made to want, or to accept as inevitable. What 'reality' can they be made to believe.

    The record on that last point for the American electorate, is that far too many can be made to believe almost anything. The crux of the issue is, if Obama can do a deal that can get us through the next decade it forestalls GOP plans to outright end SS and Medicare.

    Which is why they haven't made a deal.


    If the Republican Lite Democratic candidate doesn't distinguish himself from the so-called compassionate conservative business-experience GOP candidate, then yes, Romney can get 61 million votes. Romney may have been uninspiring, but he mostly knew how to stay on message. (47% was a bad gaffe).

    Where's our wave of liberal legislation for term #2? Nope, we're debating not whether to cut Social Security, but how much. Austerity is our plan of action, not creating jobs. Unlike 2009, no talk of closing Gitmo - major prisoner strike now and it doesn't even hit the papers 't 'all. We passed a $10 million exempt estate tax, extended the Bush tax cuts except for those making over $450K, while capital gains is lower indefinitely - so now we need another bit of sacrifice so that the rich might pay their fair share - we'll close loopholes and somehow they'll stay closed? That is hope.

    And we'll put cutting Social Security on the table with some presumed hope that there will be safeguards for the needy after all the committee meetings and Paul Ryan/Rand Paul/Boehner grandstanding, and of course no real guarantees for those who just put into the system and expected it to run as designed.

    In one universe, Obama's looking for a Mommie who'll tell him, "yes, son, you did all the right things, you shared and compromised, and those other boys were mean". Meanwhile, those other boys are eating the lunch he packed for school and getting him to do their homework.

    In another universe, Obama's snickering and saying, "it all worked out like I wanted it - half a loaf is better than all other loaves. Perfect is enemy of the good".


    Teach it...

    He plays the base by deliberately creating a problem to beat them over the head with...Sequester, son of debt limit fiasco. sired by extension of tax cuts out of criminally negligent political malpractice in not demanding debt limit extension dollar for tax cut dollar while he had whip hand AND it was the fair thing to do.

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