Michael Maiello's picture

    Will Romney Raise Taxes On The Middle Class?

    By refusing to be specific, Mitt Romney has made his tax and budget plans difficult to analyze and, of course, difficult to criticize.  This might be by design though, of course, folks are trying to figure out what the Romney budget would mean for America.  The Tax Policy Center, a joint venture of the Urban Institute and The Brookings Institution, says that for Romney to cut the corporate tax rate and to cut taxes on high earners, he will have to eliminate deductions that favor the middle class, in effect, raising taxes on everyone else.

    President Obama is, rightly, all over this.  Romney wants to raise everyone's taxes so he can cut taxes for the rich, says the president, quite plausibly.  Romney can't refute it because, as with his personal taxes, he doesn't want to give out many details.

    What I think would happen if Romney were elected is that he would not, in fact, do anything that would directly increase the middle class tax burden.  He'd have to burn too many of his own supporters, dooming himself to one term, like George HW Bush.

    I think, in the end, he would cut taxes on the wealthy and borrow to make up the difference, no matter what the effect on the deficit.  Because, when it comes down to it, Republicans only care about the deficit if they can use it as a reason to say no to programs favored by Democrats.  Otherwise, they don't care at all.

    For Romney, success would only be measured by getting those tax cuts through.  If, in the process, the economy improves and deficits are reduced, he will take credit for unleashing animal spirits and fixing the problem by cutting taxes.  If the deficit explodes, he'll argue that it's temporary and that a boom is just around the corner.

    I think that it makes political sense to follow the line that if Romney does everything he promises, it means he'll have to either raise middle class tax rates or eliminate deductions that middle class taxpayers use.   But, in the end, I think Romney and the Republicans are way more irresponsible than that.

    Then there's the question about why Republicans don't really care about debts and deficits.  One reason might be that, for the most part, if you can get the economy growing and can avoid spending a trillion dollars on war, deficits take care of themselves.  Basically, you're better off fixing everything else and trying to spend wisely.  The other might be that their wealthier constituents are somewhat insulated from the potential negative consequences of unsustainable debt because they have mobile capital in a variety of currencies.  But whatever it is, they don't care.

    Debt and deficits are only useful to Republicans if they can frighten people into giving up Social Security and Medicare.  Other than that, they don't care a bit.

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    Public debt does not matter nearly so much as the overall health of the economy.  Public debt after WW2 was over 100% of of GDP.  We did not careen over a "fiscal cliff."  The economy did not implode.  The economy grew, thus the debt shrunk relative to the economy.  It's not really about paying it back the same way you or I might pay back a loan.

    The bond markets currently reflect an extreme confidence in US public debt.  Buyers want it.  They want it so badly that the real interest-rate on ten year T-bills has been negative, meaning that investors are willing to pay the US government for a safe place to park their money!  Only fools wouldn't take advantage.

    But the debt is too important a political cudgel, as you note, for this fact to inform policy in a meaningful way.  Never mind that if you actually care about alleviating the debt in the long term, you would do the exact opposite of what those who crow most about the debt prescribe.  Methinks they doth protest too much.

    There are three phenomena that have contributed significantly to public debt during the course of US history: War, financial malfeasance and Ronald Reagan.  He's the bump to the right of WWII.  The bump to the left of WWI is obviously the Civil War, the bump at the left end the debt overhang from the revolution.  (Y-axis is public debt as % of GDP)

    Yet, somehow, the GOP has managed to brand theirs as the party of "fiscal responsibility," with the Gipper cast as the mythical hero of the same.  It would be funny were it not so successful a distortion of the truth.

    War is peace.  Freedom is slavery.  Ignorance is strength.  Carry on.


    It's utterly amazing.  But, since understanding the national debt is not intuitive, the flim flam works. 

    As you say, the world is hurling money at us and telling us to use it for whatever.  They are not scared of inflation down the line.  They know we're going to "print" the money to pay them back and they don't care.  Why we aren't thanking them and rebuilding every bridge and water system while installing free, universal Wi-Fi and renovating every major airport and train station in the country with the proceeds is entirely beyond me.

    Borrowing money is only a problem when you need it and nobody wants to lend to you.  That's exactly the opposite of the problem we have now.


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